Fiala is great but not worth 1st-6th overall read description

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Slimycoldcutswork

Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: May 9, 2022

Published: May 9, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I have to imagine fitz can get this done without giving up the ~5th overall pick.

Hes a very good player any way you want to cut it, but hes not 9-10+ million AAV kind of guy. I think fiala is like a 7.5 million AAV kind of guy when playing at his best. I also think we have effectively seen his best, or close to it, in the last two seasons as well. Anybody can have an outlier season, but I think hes squarely a 65-85 point guy for his prime.

If the devils were looking at a guy like Tkachuk, whom I think is on a different level in terms of deserved asset return and contract value, I would be very much at peace with trading the 2022 1st rounder. It just doesnt make sense to me when it comes to Fiala. From a devils perspective I think he probably compares closest to Bratt, (only 3 years older,) and theres no way I expect a top 5 pick in return for Bratt either.

The devils have a ton of talented assets. I think there has to be a path to acquire fiala from these TWO LISTS (BELOW IN TRADES SECTION)

I've split them up between essentially veteran players on low-mid AAV deals and prospects. With the exception of basically Tatar youre getting a talented young player with a few years of RFA control from the veteran list. The prospect list is full of 1st/2nd rounders or guys that have shown a high likelihood of being a full-time nhler as soon as next season for some.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Gritsyuk, Arseni		3	$925,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Boqvist, Jesper	1	$1,000,000
Zetterlund, Fabian	1	$850,000
Thompson, Tyce	1	$850,000
Bratt, Jesper	8	$760,000
Wood, Miles	2	$2,800,000
Zacha, Pavel	4	$2,800,000

Trades

NJD

Fiala, Kevin [RFA Rights]

MIN

Additional Details:

Roster player list

NJD

MIN

Additional Details:

ELC/prospect/rights list

Buyouts

Cory Schneider: $2,000,000

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2022
2023
2024

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
13	$82,500,000	$44,106,667	$0	$1,250,000	$38,393,333

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C UFA - 5	Bastian, Nathan $825,000$825,000 RW UFA - 1
Sharangovich, Yegor $2,000,000$2,000,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 1	McLeod, Michael $975,000$975,000 C RFA - 1	Bratt, Jesper $760,000$760,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 8	Holtz, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) RW, LW RFA - 3
	Mercer, Dawson $894,167$894,167 ($400,000$400K) RW, C RFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Graves, Ryan $3,166,667$3,166,667 LD UFA - 1	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 6	Blackwood, Mackenzie $2,800,000$2,800,000 G UFA - 1
Siegenthaler, Jonas $1,125,000$1,125,000 LD UFA - 1	Severson, Damon $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Bernier, Jonathan $4,125,000$4,125,000 G UFA - 1

May 9, 2022 at 4:55 p.m.

Wildnochance

Banned

Joined: Dec. 2020

Posts: 2,766

Likes: 520

You will still have to give up a 1st round pick in addition to any prospect. Minnesota will not take on tatar, Zacha, Andreas Johnson, miles wood, . They don't need janne.

People can debate where the 1st round pick starts. Don't really care.

May 9, 2022 at 4:55 p.m.

MasterLevi

Joined: Dec. 2019

Posts: 1,117

Likes: 627

I agree. Good player, but not worth a top 5 pick.

Top 5 picks getting traded for players hasn't happened in the salary cap era. Last time was Fedotenko in 2002 & Yashin in 2001.

Cap flexibility is so important. Take a great young talent at 5 that will be cheap.

May 9, 2022 at 4:59 p.m.

Devil

Speak of the Devil

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 23,938

Likes: 26,436

Another option is to offersheet him this summer but trading for him is the more realistic option

May 9, 2022 at 4:59 p.m.

Slimycoldcutswork

Thread Starter

SLIMY

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 273

Likes: 57

Quoting: Wildnochance

so youre saying hypothetically the devils could offer you all 4 of the 1st round picks still on ELCs on that prospect list and you would still say no? That seems a bit absurd to me.

May 9, 2022 at 5:03 p.m.

Slimycoldcutswork

Thread Starter

SLIMY

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 273

Likes: 57

Quoting: Devil

Another option is to offersheet him this summer but trading for him is the more realistic option

I dont think thats really an option even if he wanted to sign one. A) I think he will be dealt by the draft, and B) the compensation would likely be an unprotected 1st 2nd and 3rd in 2023 if youre to accept the idea that he will be in the 6-8 million AAV bracket.

May 9, 2022 at 5:12 p.m.

Wildnochance

Banned

Joined: Dec. 2020

Posts: 2,766

Likes: 520

Quoting: Slimycoldcutswork

so youre saying hypothetically the devils could offer you all 4 of the 1st round picks still on ELCs on that prospect list and you would still say no? That seems a bit absurd to me.

Minnesota is stacked with 8 top d prospects. They are stacked at Winger for the foreseeable future even with fiala trade..so at best Minnesota accept 1 Winger prospect back. No disrespect, but just because a prospect was chosen in 1st round doesn't make him one later on. A fiala trade will require 1st round pick of some kind back

iAce liked this.

May 9, 2022 at 5:12 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,360

Likes: 18,411

Not sure about Mukhamadullin, but agree with all the other pieces.

May 9, 2022 at 5:13 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,360

Likes: 18,411

My best guess on what happens with FIala

50% chance he signs QO and becomes UFA next summer (2023)
20% chance he extends long-term in Minnesota (and they punt someone else)
15% chance he is traded and extends with contender
10% chance he is traded to contender as a 1-year rental
5% chance he is traded and extends with a team that now possesses a top-10 pick.

May 9, 2022 at 5:46 p.m.

iAce

Joined: May 2021

Posts: 173

Likes: 52

Quoting: Wildnochance

This answer hits it on the head. Our prospect pool is stacked and ranked 3rd in the league. Hard to look at that prospect list and think we don't have a fit already in place. If you don't want to move Mercer, Hughes or Holtz it's going to cost your first unprotected as there isn't anything else really enticing for us atm. I hope that doesn't sound harsh or disrespectful as I do not intend that to be the case. I think it's best if Fiala stays as we won't get the value we want from him and he's extremely valuable to what we do here.

Wildnochance liked this.

May 9, 2022 at 5:49 p.m.

#10

RazWild

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 4,430

Likes: 3,154

Quoting: NHLfan10506

1.04 PPG and 85 points on the year.

There is ZERO percent chance he ever signs a $5.1M QO. No player coming off that type of season would. Period.

He will be traded by the draft if we can't keep him. This has been confirmed by our Beat Writer Michael Russo of the Athletic.

drambui liked this.

May 9, 2022 at 5:54 p.m.

#11

Caerii

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 5,349

Likes: 3,386

The problem with NJ fans thinking they can get him without their 1st because their 1st is too high is that they don't have anything else of value that they want to offer. You keep thinking you can get him with secondary or tertiary pieces, but you still haven't included the primary piece.

I promise you, your bottom six roster players and B/C prospects aren't any more special than any other teams.

Wildnochance liked this.

May 9, 2022 at 6:00 p.m.

#12

wabit

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 8,221

Likes: 3,642

Quoting: NHLfan10506

He can also take the team to arbitration. It'll be more than his QO and it'll force MN to either pay what he is awarded or let him walk.

He is also a prime an OS candidate. I actually think it's a likely situation if he's not traded at the draft. MN can't really match a highend 1st + 2nd+3rd range. They get a decent return and the GM doesn't look bad to the fanbase. It's win-win for GMBG imo. He doesn't have to do anything and doesn't get much blowback from Wild fans.

May 9, 2022 at 6:07 p.m.

#13

drambui

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,825

Likes: 2,509

Quoting: NHLfan10506

its funny because your number one scenario to me is the most unlikely and i dont understand why. on its own its bad assest management and it woukd not solve the minesota cap problem anyway. also he would probably not sign his QO and just go to arbitration too. not sure why you feel its the more likely.

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May 9, 2022 at 6:11 p.m.

#14

wabit

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 8,221

Likes: 3,642

Quoting: Wildnochance

MN is pretty empty for RD prospects, Addison is all they have. LD they are stacked.

In 2-3 years they are going to need wingers (FWDs in general). They are going to have replace Foligno, Greenway, Hartman, Freddy G, and Fiala. MN has some decent prospects, but I don't see many top-9 locks in the prospect pool. A high end winger that will be ready in the next 2 years would be nice have.

May 9, 2022 at 6:13 p.m.

#15

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,360

Likes: 18,411

Quoting: wabit

Quoting: drambui

QO or Arbitration = 1 year

The offer-sheet is the one I didn't consider, but I suppose would fall under the 15% saying he goes to a contender long-term (or medium term). Hard part is that no one can sign him to 1-year, then extend later like Kotkaniemi.

May 9, 2022 at 6:16 p.m.

#16

cartersNo1

Pens Fan

Joined: Oct. 2021

Posts: 922

Likes: 123

It comes down to whether the player you pick is projected to be better than fiala. If he’s not, go for it. But I think anyone they can get will be better. We have to remember that jersey isn’t a contender, no matter how much they wanna be. The difference make is what the player they get, either through a trade or making the pick, is gonna do when they are a contender. I think they should keep it, unless Minnesota throws Rossi, boldly, or Addison and a mid round pick in the deal.

May 9, 2022 at 6:17 p.m.

#17

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,360

Likes: 18,411

Quoting: RazWild

1.04 PPG and 85 points on the year.

There is ZERO percent chance he ever signs a $5.1M QO. No player coming off that type of season would. Period.

He will be traded by the draft if we can't keep him. This has been confirmed by our Beat Writer Michael Russo of the Athletic.

Russo? That does not increase confidence, at all.
Same guy who said, and double-downed, on Minnesota could roll back buyout dead money by adding Shea Weber at deadline?

If Fiala wants a big UFA payday, he signs 1-year and gets there quicker.

May 9, 2022 at 6:19 p.m.

#18

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,360

Likes: 18,411

Quoting: cartersNo1

It comes down to whether the player you pick is projected to be better than fiala. If he’s not, go for it. But I think anyone they can get will be better. We have to remember that jersey isn’t a contender, no matter how much they wanna be. The difference make is what the player they get, either through a trade or making the pick, is gonna do when they are a contender. I think they should keep it, unless Minnesota throws Rossi, boldly, or Addison and a mid round pick in the deal.

If they throw in Rossi, gently, I'd still take it.

May 9, 2022 at 6:19 p.m.

#19

cartersNo1

Pens Fan

Joined: Oct. 2021

Posts: 922

Likes: 123

Quoting: NHLfan10506

If they throw in Rossi, gently, I'd still take it.

I meant on of those options

May 9, 2022 at 6:20 p.m.

#20

drambui

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,825

Likes: 2,509

Quoting: NHLfan10506

i get its 1 year, it just such a threat to happens that you would have to be a complete idiot to not resign him longterm or trade him before the QO period.

May 9, 2022 at 6:24 p.m.

#21

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,360

Likes: 18,411

Quoting: Caerii

The problem with NJ fans thinking they can get him without their 1st because their 1st is too high is that they don't have anything else of value that they want to offer. You keep thinking you can get him with secondary or tertiary pieces, but you still haven't included the primary piece.

I promise you, your bottom six roster players and B/C prospects aren't any more special than any other teams.

Correct. We have lots of young pieces of value. And we are going to keep them all.
Hope he likes Ottawa.

May 9, 2022 at 6:25 p.m.

#22

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,360

Likes: 18,411

Quoting: cartersNo1

I meant on of those options

"Boldly" vs "Boldy"

May 9, 2022 at 6:26 p.m.

#23

Caerii

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 5,349

Likes: 3,386

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Hope he likes Ottawa.

Same.

Maybe you can stop making threads about him now.

iAce liked this.

May 9, 2022 at 6:31 p.m.

#24

RazWild

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 4,430

Likes: 3,154

Quoting: NHLfan10506

You mean, the guy who walked it back and apologized to his followers after going indepth and talking about it all works with the Wild's capologist?

The guy who is considered to be the best beat writer in North American hockey?

That guy?

He repeated what Friedman said in a tweet about it, and walked it back the very next day. He never once doubled-down on that. Don't be ridiculous.

I may not take his word as gospel, but he's easily the most plugged in beat-writer in the league and is typically 99% reliable on what he puts out.

Also, Fiala has wanted a reasonable contract for what he's worth on a long-term contract FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS.

iAce liked this.

May 9, 2022 at 6:47 p.m.

#25

wabit

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 8,221

Likes: 3,642

Quoting: NHLfan10506

If the player elects arbitration the team selects the term (1 or 2 years). Just like if the team elects arbitration the player selects the term (1 or 2 years).

Really an OS of 1 or 5 years is the same payout. An $8m x 5 deal is probably ideal for Fiala as far as a team perspective. It covers the end his prime years and less of a chance he falls off a cliff before the contract ends. It also priced MN out of matching the offer and is fair money for what he is as a player.

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