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TheCelt

Math and Sports
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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 29, 2019 at 7:59 p.m.
Thread: Optimal Lineup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>"Chasing ghosts of problems?" Who's going on the ice at RD after the first shift in the first game? The only "ghost" at that moment will be Byfuglien; his absence is no ephemeral problem.</div></div>

If Byfuglien isn't on the ice then Beaulieu is the 7th defenseman and he goes in. That part's not rocket science.

But if you're acting as if that's a problem, it's absolutely not. Having a high seed in playoff formats in North American sports is vastly overrated in every North American sport except for football. If Buff misses 5-20 games in October, the probability that he sustains injuries goes down and I get happier.

If Byfuglien's agent announces his retirement, then Chevy crosses that bridge when it happens.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 13, 2019 at 1:03 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 12, 2019 at 7:53 p.m.
Thread: WINTERPIGS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boatface</b></div><div>How about NOW!!</div></div>

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat. Even then it might be a bit of an underpay for a generational scorer Laine, but Rasmussen looks good and Zadina will be great in a couple. That being said, it gives us a playoff contending team in the present and sets us up better for the future.

My personal opinion of winning championships in the North American pro sports format of cap and draft is that it's better to maintain a high level of play over a long period of time than oscillate between going all in and rebuilding. With St. Louis proving how unpredictable and high-variance the sport is, it makes sense to aim for the playoffs perennially and luck into winning as opposed to going all in.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2019 at 10:13 p.m.
Thread: Trades PHI DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>They should not be trying to win the cup in 2020 as they won't be contenders, any attempt to do so isn't gonna work out and will cause more long term pain then anything else. They should use this offseason and next season to retool the roster to be a long term contender.
Now if they can find a trade partner for any of Kulikov or Perreault that doesn't want to be paid premium assets to take them then make the trade but otherwise best to just ride out their contracts and be done with it, this team has traded far too many assets for rentals and cap space in the last two seasons so trading more to dump 1 and 2 year contracts would be really really bad.
If they could trade Buff (and even Wheeler)and recoup some of the pieces lost in the last two seasons that'd be ideal but they most likely won't.
I most definitely agree about Tanev, if he's still a Jet next season prepare yourself for a while(while as in multiple seasons) of the Jets sucking with no cup or much cap space to improve with. Also if Tanev is a Jet you can also expect the "right guys" you want to be given an opportunity to be rotting on the 4th line with 5-7 minutes of ice time or sitting in the press box.</div></div>

I am 100% on board with 86ing Wheels. I was a very vocal minority that hated the extension when he signed it. Otherwise I think we're in agreement about most of the other stuff.

I just wouldn't trade Buff, because his value to cost ratio is still very high. There are much worse contracts to get rid of.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2019 at 10:07 p.m.
Thread: Trades PHI DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>See the problem with "dumping the right guys" is that you need a team willing to take that player and that team must also not be voided by a NTC or NMC. There are so many quality players available this year in FA and so many teams that need to dump cap that it is going to be very hard to find suitors for cap dumps.</div></div>

I'm alright with overpaying in terms of prospects for that. If the Jets play their cards right this year, lock up Laine and Connor. and have a tentative plan for Morrissey next year, You're left with a top 6 that is cup-worthy for years to come, a franchise defenseman, and a couple nice cheaper pieces for defense. That really is all you can ask for as a GM. I am completely content mortgaging the future to make all the necessary moves to set up a cup window for the next 6 years that Scheifele is a jet for 6M/year. Any prospect or pick not named Samberg and Vesalainen is up for grabs. I would even spend a 1st round pick if it managed to dump a fair amount of dead cap.

The NTC on Kulikov and Perreault is fairly limited. There are more bad teams than good teams especially in southern sunny markets. Los Angeles, and Florida come to mind immediately. Or New York if a player is blocking all small market teams.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2019 at 1:37 p.m.
Thread: Trades PHI DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>Idk man I think it'd be an improvement and definitely improves the defense in the long run, if they hold on to Buff they're definitely not gonna get someone like Gostisbehere for him.
That trade would free up a ton of cap space too.</div></div>

Buff is one of the top 10 defenseman in the NHL in terms of suppressing shots against, controlling play in terms of corsi, and doing it on a team that had trouble with that last year. Add on that he is elite at special teams (this is an overrated stat in a lot of cases, but when you're as good as Buff it does count for something). He'll probably decline a little next year because age tends to do that, but he will still be very valuable.

If we were rebuilding or reloading and not trying to win a cup in 2020, these two trades would make a lot of sense. But in this scenario, we have 3 new members of our top4, and only one of them is an upgrade on the player that used to play there. (Ghost is a massive upgrade on Chiarot, but that's still 1/3.)

There have been a lot of Trouba for Ghost trades going around. I'd be alright with any of those. I'd even be alright with not sending them Perreault if PHI views MP85 as negative value, and/or giving up a pick or prospect not named Vesalainen, or Samberg, to smooth out the deal.

As far as cap goes, the Jets aren't in trouble as long as they dump the right guys and give some opportunities to the right guys. 85 and 5 need to be gone, Trouba probably gets moved as well, and we can't be making any stupid UFA signings *cough*Tanev*cough*. And Poolman needs to get a shot. The guy was dominant in the AHL, has done decently in NHL action he's gotten and is the cheapest player on the roster right now, and isn't due any bonuses.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 2, 2019 at 10:02 a.m.
Thread: PHI and CGY whould you do this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GhostBear</b></div><div>It's actually laughable thinking the NCAA is leaps and bounds above Juniors. I get it, guys are bigger and stronger in the NCAA, but they also have 1/3 of the talent compared to the guys your defending in Juniors. Trouba just finished his 6th season in the NHL and he finally surpassed 33 points, his previous career high. Is 50 points his new norm? Maybe, but its certainly a great time for the Jets to try and capitalize on the most value he has ever had. Selling high is smart by them. Buying high would not be smart for the Flyers. Will Myers put up the offensive numbers Trouba did this year? Maybe not, but his ceiling is to be just as good, if not better, defensively. Brossoit has no value in this trade since the Flyers want to sign a veteran backup, Brossoit has only played in 49 games. And to top it off, you dump Kulikov on them without any other type of compensation.</div></div>

Doesn't matter. Age trumps talent when talent is comparable for amateur players. It's the same reason press box plugs like Brendan Lemieux and Nic Petan can have ridiculous offensive numbers, and do absolutely nothing in the NHL. Being a dominant amateur against amateurs your own age doesn't mean a lot. The best CHL players can be identified because they are the best players in a U20 league at 17 and 18, or in some cases, being allowed to enter the league a year early with exceptional status.

On the flip side of the NCAA, it's why NCAA free agents are usually solid but underwhelming players. Being a 23 year old and lighting up 18 year olds is pretty meh.

Thinking the CHL can compete with the NCAA is asinine. It is the same line of thinking that a top American high school football or basketball team could compete with a CIS team. No they wouldn't.

Myers has Trouba's ceiling in the sense that he could play top pairing minutes one day but if you're charting him against Trouba he has catching up to do. At this point in time Trouba was coming off his 2nd full NHL season and had 2 years of being a top 4 defenseman under his belt. It's not impossible for Myers to catch him, but not likely.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1, 2019 at 7:44 p.m.
Thread: PHI and CGY whould you do this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mk458</b></div><div>I could understand not wanting to do this trade. But lets be realistic here, Myers does not have Trouba's upside. Myers is 22, by age 21 Trouba was already playing top 4 minutes and situations. He put up 29 points in 65 games in the NHL in his rookie season. He was a top 10 draft pick who put up dominant numbers in the NCAA before bursting into the league. Myers has potential to be a top 4 dman, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. One great season in the AHL (his 2nd season), doesn't give him Trouba's upside. I think you've got a bit of a bias as a Flyers fan. I mean no disrespect, I think Myers will be a good dman. But Trouba just put up 50 points</div></div>


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>Take a look at what Myers did in juniors. He dominated. He was also paired with Thomas Chabot in the World Juniors. He may be slower to bloom than Trouba but Myers does have his upside. You don’t compare upside by what someone did at the same age.</div></div>

I'm gonna go ahead and second pretty much everything mk just said.

Firstly, Junior is not evenly comparable to the NCAA. The difference between a dominant defender against older amateur players and being a dominant defender against guys your own age is night and day. The difficulty scale done by behindthenet has junior a shade under 75% of the difficulty of NCAA. Not even counting that the BIG10 is actually a decent conference. Otherwise the numbers would look even more favorably on Trouba. Behindthenet is a pretty logical site, so when they make predictions and approximations, it's fairly reliable.

Secondly, that is absolutely how you compare upside. Athletes reach their athletic prime at about 25-30 and they do the majority of their growth up until that point with the last couple stages of development being very slow. That means the majority of their growth happens 19-23. The fact that Trouba was that far ahead of him is pretty indicative of how the two will compare. There are definitely exceptions to the rule, but the Blake Wheelers and Jamie Benn of the world are the exception and not the rule.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2019 at 12:17 p.m.
Thread: WPG FLA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorsCousin</b></div><div>LOL you're right, I thought he'd be worth a B prospect or a 3rd rounder. What do you think his value is?</div></div>

Maybe, but to the Jets I think he has even higher value, meaning teams will have to overpay to get him. He plays center on a team that isn't deep at center and he is very good with undervalued stats, meaning his contract should be fairly team friendly.

When I look at the Oilers, there's nothing really of comparable value to trade for. Khaira, and Benning don't come close to his value, and all your big names are worth more.

Maybe one of Puljujarvi or Caleb Jones with a late round pick going either way to offset value. (Puljujarvi doesn't come close to Copp's value as it stands, but his ceiling would probably make it worth it.)
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24, 2019 at 9:45 p.m.
Thread: Nylander and a Copp offer sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BiscuitBakesandHotTaeks</b></div><div>You guys know that young players mostly prefer to have shorter deals while they are still in RFA territory so that their team doesn’t get UFA years right?</div></div>

Only certain players. And they are the exception and not the rule. If Copp signs a one year deal coming off of a career year, he is putting himself at huge risk in the case that he gets injured, or regresses (either because of bad luck or a lack of skilled line mates). When your stock is at a high you sell, and that applies to contracts too.

Now Copp's contract offer is something else entirely. Paying 3.25mill for a bottom 6 guy who is coming off a career year is not smart. The key to being a great GM isn't finding the next Karlsson, it's not signing bottom 6 players to contracts they haven't earned. Tampa was great cause of all the hidden gems they found, but now that those players are all getting paid they're going to start really regretting some of the 4-6mill contracts they've signed. This is a scaled down version, but that doesn't make it better.