SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

TheDream_43

Member Since
Oct. 21, 2018
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forum Posts
323
Posts per Day
0.2
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 7, 2018 at 10:11 p.m.
Thread: Deal Zaitsev High Contracts
I think a lot of guys are missing the point here. It's not about Zaitsev's deal being horrible. It's not. Someone's gotta go, and in this scenario I chose Johnsson and Kapanen to stay over Zaitsev. I disregarded positions because I believe that the position inequality can be addressed in the following offseason. I'd much rather lose Zaitsev, who I don't consider to be a top-4 defensemen on a cup-caliber team which the leafs eventually aspire to be, than any leaf top 9 forward not named Marleau (who is an FA in the following offseason), who I believe can be top 6 contributors on a cup winning team. So why deal Zaitsev? It's not cuz he gets no points. I think PTS for defensemen is an overrated stat. There are two main reasons why I think he is not a great defensemen and I'd want to deal him before the superior forwards. First, he has a total inability to handle the puck and make controlled zone exits, which is really important as a defensemen (and no, Gardiner cannot do this alone). The second reason is I feel like he wears the goat horns on a lot of goals, and his defensive positioning on many goals is very questionable. Will he be missed as a shot blocker? Yes. But someone's gotta go, and I'd rather it be him then Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson, etc
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2018 at 9:17 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2018 at 11:20 a.m.
Thread: Lets get some D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheDream_43</b></div><div>I honestly think Zaitsev has value to some teams, and leaf fans wouldn't be so inclined to get rid of him if we weren't cap strapped. I just meant take the best offer with no money coming back in what I said. Surprised to see a different teams fan have a perception on Zaitsev other than negative considering all the flak he gets on here haha</div></div>

Zaitsev gets a lot of flak for not being the top line RHD that the fans expect him to be, and every mistake is accentuated by Hainsey's problems. He's not a top line D. He's a solid second line D who has an untapped offensive upside that he has yet to show after his rookie year due to being relied on as a defensive defenseman. Now that that is smoothed out, he could be a high end 2 pairing guy. I'm also surprised that more non-Toronto fans aren't trying to get him.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 5, 2018 at 10:12 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 11, 2018 at 9:03 p.m.
Thread: Stop trading Nylander for a middle Pair Dman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheDream_43</b></div><div>It's not what TheDream_43 thinks, it's common sense. How many 20-21 year olds put up back to back 60 point seasons the answer is not many.</div></div>

NHL seasons at age 20
<a href="https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/player-age/20-year-old-nhl-players.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/player-age/20-year-old-nhl-players.html</a>

I sorted by goals scored, because 2nd assists mean little and not including them at all somewhat adjusts for differences in quality of linemates, ice time, o-zone starts, pp time.
This isn't a valuation, it doesn't even account for injuries or lockouts during 20 year-old season, but it gives you a comfortable set of comparables

Current players:
05/06 Ovechkin 52/54/106
10/11 Stamkos 45/46/91
17/18 McDavid 41/67/108
03/04 Kovalchuk 41/46/87
08/09 Toews 34/35/69
16/17 Pastrnak 34/36/70
17/18 Matthews 34/29/63
06/07 Malkin 33/52/85
07/08 Kopitar 32/45/77
05/06 Bergeron 31/42/73
14/15 Monahan 31/31/62
11/12 E Kane 30/27/57
10/11 Tavares 29/38/67
17/18 Aho 29/36/65
17/18 Boeser 29/26/55
17/18 DeBrincat 28/24/52
15/16 Barkov 28/31/59
11/12 Hall 27/26/53
14/15 Forsberg 26/37/63
16/17 Ehlers 25/39/64
08/09 P Kane 25/45/70
17/18 Konecny 24/23/47
17/18 M Tkachuk 24/25/49
16/17 Eichel 24/33/57
07/08 Crosby 24/48/72
05/06 Carter 23/19/42
99/00 Thornton 23/37/60
15/16 Reinhart 23/19/42
08/09 J Staal 22/27/49
09/10 Benn 22/19/41
17/18 Barzal 22/63/85
17/18 Marner 22/47/69
16/17 Nylander 22/39/61
03/04 Spezza 22/33/55
10/11 Stepan 21/24/45
08/09 Frolik 21/23/45
08/09 Berglund 21/26/47
09/10 B Sutter 21/19/40
15/16 Mackinnon 21/31/52
17/18 Beauvillier 21/15/36
05/06 Phaneuf 20/29/49
15/16 Duclair 20/24/44
14/15 Galchenyuk 20/26/46
16/17 Rantanen 20/18/38
07/08 Kessel 19/18/37
13/14 Nugent-Hopkins 19/37/56
15/16 Draisatl 19/32/51
07/08 Cogaliano 18/27/45
11/12 O'Reilly 18/37/55
15/16 Domi 18/34/52


You can look at that list in a lot of ways.
Not many were busts -- if there was a mistake with Nylander, it was not trying to sign him a year or two ago.
There are 50 names listed above
Not rare like top D, but very valuable.
You probably would say no to a trade of Nylander for Aho or Boeser, but there's a familiarity bias at play because they put up better numbers on worse teams..
Nylander could be good value or fair value depending on his contract.

I think a bridge deal followed by a trade is the best way to move on, but we'll see what happens