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drewjenks

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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 10, 2020 at 10:22 p.m.
Thread: How Does Edmonton Fix Their 2020-21 Salary Cap Issues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Smokingun71</b></div><div>First step is not giving Bear such a ridiculous bridge deal, no way he gets close to 5.5M for 3 years. This is his first good season, should get no more then 2.5M per year for 2 years.</div></div>

<strong>I would have agreed with you before they signed Nurse at $5,600,000 x 2 years (buying zero UFA years).
</strong>
This sets a horrible precedent for Ethan Bear's contract negotiation.

Don't get me wrong ... they're obviously at two very different points in their careers.

But buying zero UFA years from Nurse essentially puts Bear in the most comparable position he could possibly be in.

The two players have similar stats in every major category this year (goals, points, P/GP, ATOI, etc) and Bear can argue he has better career averages at a younger age.

<strong>Bears extension probably just jumped into one of the following ranges:</strong>

$5,000,000 x 2 years (RFA expiry)
$6,000,000 x 4 years (UFA expiry)
$7,000,000 x 6 years (UFA expiry)

Toronto had a similar issue last year. Matthews forced a Tavares comparable contract then Marner forced a Matthews comparable contract.

I see this situation playing out the same ... maybe Edmonton can get a 2-year deal with a $4,000,000 cap-hit ... but I don't see it being any lower.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 10, 2020 at 9:06 p.m.
Thread: Looking at this team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeytor15</b></div><div><strong>What the heck are you dumb.</strong> Take of one of the first cause he is not that good. he is worth 1,2,2,3. Manson has been good for only 2 seasons and hasn't even been great this year. He is only good on defense so he is a one way player. Liljegren is 20 (I think) and already has a great start extremely good on both ends. If we keep Liljegren will be better than Manson so were keeping him</div></div>

Gotta love the irony in your first sentence.

Also - I don't think Manson is even worth a 1st + 2nd + 2nd + 3rd as you stated.

His value should be in the same range as someone like JT Miller (a top 15 protected 1st + 3rd).


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>You should have read his whole thing. He agrees with you.</div></div>

Thank you.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 10, 2020 at 7:18 p.m.
Thread: Looking at this team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeytor15</b></div><div>Were not gonna trade Liljegren he is really good</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>I think you meant last week. Manson hasn't been good for 2 years and Liljegren really looks like exactly what TO needs. He's fast, can handle the puck and is generally always in the right position. I have liked how he's played.</div></div>


This proposal essentially says Josh Manson's trade value = <strong>1st + 1st + 2nd + 3rd</strong>

Timothy Liljegren = <strong>mid 1st round pick (10-20 overall)</strong> = 20 year old who currently looks like a steal of a 17th pick (29 points in 37 AHL games this season).
Andre Johnsson = <strong>late 1st round pick (20-30 overall)</strong> = 25 year old on a cheap 4-year deal who has averaged 48 points per 82 games since his NHL debut.
2nd round pick = <strong>2021 2nd rounder (40-60 overall)</strong>
3rd round pick = <strong>2022 3rd rounder (70-90 overall)</strong>

Manson is 28 and has been on a steady decline for two seasons.
He has 25 points in his last 130 games (15 points per 82 games).
He's only been slightly above average defensively since 2017-18.

<strong>Something like Liljegren or Johnsson straight up would be much more reasonable</strong> (though I wouldn't trade Liljegren for him).
Forum: NHL SigningsFeb. 10, 2020 at 6:43 p.m.
Thread: Edmonton Oilers signed Darnell Nurse (2 Years / $5,600,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AndrewLadd</b></div><div>This contract does nothing for the Oilers. #1 It walks Nurse right to UFA. #2 They now have like 13 players signed for next year with around 11 mil in cap space to get more signed. #3 This is a high cap hit, especially for 2 years</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Trickster</b></div><div>Walking him straight to UFA.
Failure.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>What discount? They should have gotten at least 3 years. This contract lowers his trade value.</div></div>

<strong>This sets a horrible precedent for Ethan Bear's contract negotiation.</strong>

Don't get me wrong ... they're obviously at two very different points in their careers.

But buying <strong>zero</strong> UFA years from Nurse essentially puts Bear in the most comparable position he could possibly be in.

The two players have similar stats in every major category this year (goals, points, P/GP, ATOI, etc) and Bear can argue he has better career averages at a younger age.

<strong>Bears extension probably just jumped into one of the following ranges:</strong>

<strong>$5,000,000</strong> x 2 years (<strong>RFA </strong>expiry)
<strong>$6,000,000</strong> x 4 years (<strong>UFA </strong>expiry)
<strong>$7,000,000</strong> x 6 years (<strong>UFA </strong>expiry)
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 6, 2020 at 12:08 a.m.
Thread: (TOR/LAK) - Moore, 2020 3rd round pick, Conditionial 2021 3rd round pick for Campbell, Clifford
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Enjoy another L :D</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Laudan</b></div><div>Which part of the trade you didnt understand ?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Trading a young 4th liner on a controllable contract for an old slow UFA 4th liner.

Trading 2 3rd round picks (Who knows what the conditions are) for a fringe NHL backup.

Leafs don't win this trade.</div></div>


<strong><em>"Fringe NHL backup goalie"</em></strong>

Are you talking about Jack Campbell? This guy?

<strong>57</strong> Games Played
<strong>2.51</strong> Career GAA
<strong>0.918</strong> Career SV%

His career GA% (goals scored relative to league average) is <strong>0.95</strong>.
So he's been about 5% better than the average NHL goalie in his career.


<strong><em>"A young 4th liner on a controllable contract"</em></strong>

Are you talking about Trevor Moore? This guy?

LW-1 = Zach Hyman
LW-2 = Andreas Johnsson
LW-3 = Alexander Kerfoot
LW-4 = Ilya Mikheyev
LW-5 = Pierre Engvall
LW-6 = Kyle Clifford
LW-7 = Dmitro Timashov
LW-8 = <strong>Trevor Moore</strong>
LW-9 = Nicholas Petan
LW-10 = Kenny Agostino
LW-11 = Garrett Wilson
LW-12 = Mason Marchment
LW-13 = Yegor Korshkov
LW-14 = Nick Robertson

Oh man ... looks like the Leafs are gonna miss him a ton.
Especially with Robertson and Korshkov playing like studs.
And about 6 other left wingers on cost controlled contracts.


<strong>Aren't you the guy who kept saying LA would never trade Campbell ... their future starting goalie?
I guess Toronto should thank the lord that Campbell is on a long-term cost controlled contract. </strong>
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 4, 2020 at 12:20 p.m.
Thread: how much would it take for the leafs to get Petry
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>beanie2911</b></div><div>u think Kappy is worth a first and a second? seems steep</div></div>

His age + cap + term + RFA expiry all add value.
And a team that would trade for him is probably a contender ... so the first would be late (and probably lottery protected).
People pay a 1st ++ for rentals all the time. Whoever gets Kapanen has him for 3 playoff runs ... with potential improvement every year.

<strong>EXAMPLE:</strong>

Vancouver paid a <strong>1st + 3rd + backup</strong> for <strong>TJ Miller</strong> last summer.
He was coming off a 13 goal / 47 point season (in 75 games). Similar numbers to Kapanen.
Except he was 26 while Kapanen is 23 and his cap-hit is $2,050,000 higher than Kapanen's.
That $2,000,000 difference in cap-space for 3 years is worth a 2nd by itself to a lot of teams.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2020 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread: Jeff Petry
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Drop Ceci add Kerfoot and Moore</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ICantHaveFunWithMyUsername</b></div><div>So make it, Kerfoot, Moore, Dermott, and a second?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Listening to a Buffalo fan on how to value a trade may not be the wisest plan. This is a disaster. Petry is not worth half of this. I would never give up Dermott, a 23 year old with upside for a 31 year old with 1 year of contract left. Poor asset management at its finest here.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jack_</b></div><div>The original is better. There is no way they will scratch barrie</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kotkaniemi15</b></div><div>If Montreal is going to trade Petry, they’re going to need a RHD that can play in the top 4 next year as part of the package. I don’t think that Ceci is that RD, so Montreal would need someone else. And while Dermott is nice, they don’t really need a LHD like him, they’d want someone to replace Petry.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CheechYou</b></div><div>Turn that 2nd into a 1st and it's a deal for the Habs. Like it or not bc of TOR's cap situation and Ceci's play, Ceci's a cap dump so think of it as negative value.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Weezley</b></div><div>It’s a cap dump for 1.5m real dollars For the rest of the year. Def not worth a first but I’m pretty sure you’re just being dramatic to show your dislike for Ceci. Lol.</div></div>

In two years ... is a 25 year old Dermott going to be better and more valuable than a 35 year old Petry?

<strong>Yeah probably. </strong> He's not a prospect ... he's an effective NHL regular at 23.

So maybe the Leafs shouldn't trade Dermott + Kerfoot + Moore + a 2nd round pick.

Would Montreal fans want to trade Mete + Danault + Armia + a 2nd round pick for Petry?
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2020 at 2:21 p.m.