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jance

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May 16, 2022
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Chicago Blackhawks
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2022 at 10:18 a.m.
Thread: Ya yeet ya
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>My bad on the three first rounders part. But McMichael is a 2019 first round pick who had a pretty good rookie season and who is pencilled in to be 2c, 3c at worst, in his age 22 season next year. I don't think its a stretch to say that McMichael is now on equal footing or ahead of Dach. That, plus two first rounders, would once again still be more than Eichel, Pacioretty, Stone, Karlsson trades.</div></div>

It's a good point on the return for those 4. However, with the exception of Eichel, Debrincat is young still. Whoever traded for him would be getting an NHL all-star still on an who's still an RFA at the end of his contract. Yeah, his next contract will likely be around 9m, but still, the ability to sign a young NHL all-star who is still trending upward is worth something, and Eichle would likely be the best comp to that. Eichel doesn't score as many goals as Debrincat (.37gpg vs .43gpg) but he does have more assists (.56 vs .4), which is expected for a center. The main difference I think boils down to durability and circumstances around the trade. With Eichel, he was injured when he was traded and it was well known he wanted out. He also had a NMC, so he could control where he went. So a 10m player who had a neck problem, wanted neck surgery that no NHL player had ever had, who absolutely wanted out, make no secrets he wanted out, and could control where he went. That's going to drive his price down substantially. Debrincat, on the other hand, has no trade restrictions, and has only missed a few games to COVID (which he didn't even have, his roommate did), and is well-liked by the organization and likes playing for his team. Still, Eichel netted a 1st, a 2nd, Alex Tuch (who I'd say is probably worth around a late 1st round), and Krebs. So an injured player got, in my estimation, two firsts, a second, and a decent prospect. Again, given the circumstances of how/when the trades are happening, I would expect Debrincat to get a higher return than Eichel.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2022 at 9:06 a.m.
Thread: Ya yeet ya
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>The reason Hagel returned so much is exclusively because of his contract and the Lightning's need for ridiculously cheap players, and calling Taylor Raddysh a top-6 player is a stretch. I get thinking that this package would get outbid or that the Hawks just aren't going to trade DeBrincat, <strong>but three first rounders and a 2/3c still on his ELC with room to grow is nothing to scoff at</strong> -- this would be better than the returns for Pacioretty, Stone, and Eichel. And while most fans see no reason for a veteran center like Eller or taking a flyer on VV, I guarantee that NHL GMs do. Neither of them have negative value, and at worse you could flip Eller at the deadline and move VV on before the season for a second or third.</div></div>

Three firsts would do it, but OP and a mid-range center would be fine, and likely a deal that might work, but the offer here was for two firsts plus a middle center. I just don't think that gets it done.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2022 at 7:43 a.m.
Thread: Ya yeet ya
The Hawks pass. We have 0 use for Eller and VV, so when you boil this trade down, it's two firsts and McMichael for Debrincat, which isn't probably going to do it. I know a lot of no-Hawks fans would probably balk at that and say hawks fans are overvaluing him, but:
1:He's only 24
2: He's a 2x 40-goal scorer.
3: He's lethal on the PP, and also useful on the PK
4: He's a goal scorer that can play defense, can strip the puck off players, and create his own chances.
5: He has no NMC, NTC, so there's no limit to where he can be sent.
6: The Blackhawks do not need/necessarily want to move him.

The last point is the key point. The Blackhawks are listening to offers on him (according to rumors), but that doesn't mean they need to move him. They were also listening to offers on Hagel at the TDL, but only moved him when TB offered 2 1sts, and 2 young NHL players (one a top-six, one a bottom-six). So for the Hawks to move Debrincat, your really going to have to blow them away with an offer. Even then, I fully expect Davidson to do the same thing he did with Hagel and allow a bidding war to start. I doubt this offer would survive a bidding war.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGJun. 13, 2022 at 9:00 a.m.
Thread: Whats the price
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Your Calgary pick definitely won't get Dach, also the only reason Carolina got away with that OS is because Montreal cap strapped themselves with the Hoffman deal</div></div>

Yep, agree 100%

1. Blackhawks are looking to rebuild.
2. Dach is a young, top-shelf prospect. Yes, he had an off-year, but he has size and for his size decent puck handling. If he can put it together, he'll be a decent nhler in the future (maybe not a center, but still).
3. Davidson (Blackhawks GM) has made it very clear that though he's willing to move on from players from the team, it will be at a price he deems fair, not a price others deem fair. You can look at the Hagle deal at the TDL, but the deal people tend to miss is the deals that didn't happen, one being Dehan. Teams were calling on him, but the deals they were offering weren't what he felt were fair, so instead of dealing him for a sub-optimal return, he decided to hold on to the UFA, saying he basically felt the value the expiring Dehan brought to the team exceeded the value teams were offering.

So for the Habs (or anyone) to get Dach, they'll need to put forth an offer that will meet or exceed the perceived value of Dach by the Hawks. I would think a first and a second would be a starting point. I believe other teams have expressed interest in Dach, which would ultimately drive his price up if there were a bidding war.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 9, 2022 at 9:19 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2022 at 3:39 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2022 at 1:18 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2022 at 10:35 a.m.
Thread: Wally
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>CHI declines. Young centers and right handed dmen are exactly the kind of thing CHI should be coveting. And taking on a cap hit as big as Tavares is just not in the cards. The 2022 1st was a nice touch, though.</div></div>

I wouldn't mind the hawks taking on a Tavares-like contract, he's got 3 more years on the books, and it's likely the Hawks will be getting ready to compete again by then. So the size of his contract wouldn't scare me off, but if I were the hawks, there would be no way in hell I'm giving up that to get that return. The combination of Dach and Regula is worth, to me, more than a 1st and a second. And you would have to pay me to take Tavares's contract off of you, as he adds no value to my rebuild efforts. So to me, if I'm the Hawks, this deal really needs to start with 2 firsts for the 2 prospects, pulse for taking on that contract.

IE. The value Dach and Regula have to the hawks is likely higher than they have for the Leafs, so this deal likely would not be made.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 2, 2022 at 3:22 p.m.
Thread: Rebuild
As a Blackhawks fan, I would love it if we could pull off these trades, but it's simply not going to happen. Most of these would be steals for the Hawks.
Yes, Ottawa will likely need to pay to get a team to take Murray, but 2 second-rounders is steep, a team would probably take him for one of those. Especially if you do a cap dump swap. As you pointed out, if Ottawa really wants to get rid of that cap hit, they can just bury Murray.

Yeah, the Leafs will have to pay to move Mrázek, but again, we aren't the only team that can weaponize cap space. A second to take on Mrazek would be a really good deal for him, I feel a third is more likely. Two picks and a prospect is insane, especially for a GM angry with Davidson for the way the Hagle trade leaks at the TD. Katchouk is a 3/4th line grinder and doesn't add enough to this trade to warrant that return for eating Mrazek's contract.

I'm a huge Toews fan, but the reality is he isn't a second-line center anymore. He's aging, injury-prone, and doesn't put up the numbers he used to. Even at 5million, asking for a first+ for him seems a bit steep. Maybe I could be wrong, but I don't see a team doing that, especially a team that is gonna have to resign some big-name guys in the offseason (if they can). For that return, it will likely mean taking on more salary to help out with cap issues, such as Lucic.

I doubt very much Kane would waive for Buffalo. I suspect if he waives, it's because he wants to be on a competitive team, and that isn't Buffalo. They were only 4 wins better than the Hawks this year, not to mention his girlfriend and son live in Chicago. That being said, if he were to waive for Buffalo, this is likely the most realistic trade I see here value for value-wise, but I'm not sure the full defensive player movements would fit with what Buffalo needs/wants to do right now. I would suspect a trade for Kane would likely be just Kane for two firsts and a prospect.

I don't have much against that Carolina trade,