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rootferdukes

Your Fav Dman is Bad
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Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 9, 2019 at 12:52 p.m.
Thread: Columbus Blue Jackets signed Zachary Werenski (3 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)
I love how the rfa market is becoming so inflated that when a guy signed one of the most pricey bridge deals I can remember it's seen as a huge win.

I think this will do the jackets well short term but man would I have been pushing to go long if I were them...

And that 3rd year has a 7 mil salary... I voted that it was a good deal but now that the numbers are coming in this is not a very good deal for the jackets. Great deal for Zack though.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Zach Werenski (3x5m extension with Columbus) is a very weak 5v5 defender whose defensive weaknesses have been obscured by generous zone and teammate deployment, and whose 5v5 point totals have been inflated in recent years by playing lots of minutes with Artemi Panarin. <a href="https://t.co/eKBYvmMwoA">pic.twitter.com/eKBYvmMwoA</a></p>&mdash; Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) <a href="https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1171091163375439872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 9, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 9, 2019 at 9:46 a.m.
Thread: Andersen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>My pleasure. :) As I mentioned above, with a link, I'm responding to someone who suggested Texier for Stephenson and a 1st. Can we agree that was unreasonable, since Stephenson plays 1st PK, has won a Cup, and has played two full seasons pretty well in the NHL, plus parts of two others, while Texier has four points in his first ten games?


Yep. Ten, also.

I would still guess that Texier is not the Blue Jackets' top forward prospect behind, Robinson (half an NHL season played) and first round picks like Foudy, Milano, and Dano.

I do think that Stephenson is available for a mid-round pick or a prospect who's showing some improvement. Maybe Fix-Wolansky? I don't know. What's a cheap, established NHLer worth?</div></div>

I think you need to reassess how you value players. PK1 doesn’t really mean much. Texier is CBJ top prospect, you don’t trade those for dime-a-dozen 4th liners. To be fair, just leave all CBJ prospects out of your trades unless you offer something of value
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 8, 2019 at 8:17 p.m.
Thread: Andersen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Hyman, I believe, but he's on IR, and the coach loves him so trading him won't happen and wouldn't help much. Ceci, I'm not sure. I think they need his puck movement and shot blocking enough to gamble on his positional play, and nobody else wants his salary without retention, because he's minus infinity.

I agree Andersen is super-reliable... until March. Columbus would love to get back to the postseason and keep on building, after a big year last year. He'd be a great fit, there. Toronto couldn't miss this year's playoffs if they tried. They need someone who hasn't lost their last four playoff rounds, to help them get through at least the first round for a change.

Columbus has a backup goalie and a bunch of rookies. They'd probably trade for Hutchinson, instead, but Andersen would be way better for Toronto. Keep arguing, though? Because as a Caps fan, I kinda hope the Leafs don't figure this one out.</div></div>

Figure what out? The money for marner is there and Andersen is a great goalie. Figured any team in the east would love to see us trade off a legit number 1 goalie as a cap dump.

Moving Hyman would give us money to sign Mitch to 12.5m ceci would allow us to give him 15m Andersen would allow us to give him 15.5 m. I think we give him 10m and keep everyone.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 8, 2019 at 7:40 p.m.
Thread: Andersen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>More nuanced than that. Responding to a much more ridiculous Texier for Stephenson offer: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1403764">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1403764</a> :) Peace?





Hutchinson posted .914 and 2.85 in Toronto last year. Basically interchangeable with Andersen's 2.77 and .917. Andersen got signed/traded after taking the Ducks to the conference finals. Counting those conference finals, he's lost his last four straight playoff rounds. Toronto can sign Neuvirth around 800k, who has played in parts of five rounds, but only one whole one, which he won. Yes, Andersen is 25-20, career, playoffs, and Neuvirth is only 14-14, but if the difference means whether you can lock up Marner for eight years or not, Neuvirth is fine, even before you realize that Andersen in Toronto is only 11-13 in the playoffs, while Neuvirth is 14-14 with the Caps and Flyers, so he's probably a much better goalie?</div></div>

No... to everything you just said. Leafs have losses in the playoffs as a team. Andersen has been incredibly reliable with a heavy work load. Small sample backup goalies are not going to step in on a team that wants to compete now.

If leafs really wanted to overpay marner (they do ‘t) they could move Hyman or ceci.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 7, 2019 at 11:17 a.m.
Thread: Marner making Matthews money
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Is there a link you can show that getting a bunch of soft perimeter shots each night makes it hard to have a good save percentage, behind a team that scores first and limits real scoring chances? Thanks.

If you want to trade Andersen to NJ and give them 10M of overrated backups behind Blackwood, go for it! My post was about Marner not actually breaking the bank. Given the seven hundred million Leafs posts on here about how Marner is totally breaking the bank for this team, I'm just like....</div></div>

Ok, you were serious. That's fine. Here are two stats that should help you.

-Freddy had the 7th highest goals saved above average. 3rd among goalies that played 50 or more games. That's pretty good.
-For goalies that played 50 or more games last year, he had the 5th highest dSv%. That's the stat that goes further into sv% by taking into account shot quality, not just quantity (Shot type, shot distance, shot angle, and whether the shot was a rebound, rush shot, or on the power play).

Freddy &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Every one of those guys that you listed by a long shot.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 6, 2019 at 4:59 p.m.
Thread: Getting Rid Of Unneeded Cap pt 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BraydenSchenn10istheGOAT</b></div><div>Ottawa needs a goalie so they get Allen and we take back Anderson for cap reasons, steens a cap dump had to take back Calahan for cap reasons, and they could use Edmundson they probably would sign him to an extension. So what prospect do you think I should have taken back.</div></div>

Slow down: Allen and Anderson have roughly equal ability and cap hits. Steen and Callahan have roughly equal cap hits but one isn't playing this year and his cap hit won't count.

So it's all a wash until you get to Edmundson + 2nd + 4th for Brannstrom (arguably top-5 defensive prospect in the NHL, ready for NHL right now) and a 1st round pick (OTT projects to be a bottom-5 team in the final standings, meaning their pick will be anywhere from 1st overall (most likely) to 7th overall.

So none of it is realistically going to happen. And if the goal is to move Edmundson's cap, his value given his contract/performance last year, his value is probably between a 2nd and 3rd round pick.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 4, 2019 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread: Arizona Coyotes signed Clayton Keller (8 Years / $7,150,000 AAV)
Boy... I like Keller but this is an overpay...
The gap between those who judge a player by counting stats and those who take in other aspects will continue to widen, and this contract is a prime example.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yeah that Clayton Keller deal is gonna get a big yikes from us... we had him at a 3.6% chance of signing an 8 year deal with a projected cap hit at $6.4MM <a href="https://t.co/NaESaMwuxf">pic.twitter.com/NaESaMwuxf</a></p>&mdash; EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild/status/1169295474207199232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 4, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Giving Clayton Keller 8x7.15m is a disastrously bad idea. <a href="https://t.co/2fqPEikv8f">pic.twitter.com/2fqPEikv8f</a></p>&mdash; Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) <a href="https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1169293599936327680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 4, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDpBlnUXUAEICNf?format=jpg&amp;name=medium" alt="EDpBlnUXUAEICNf?format=jpg&amp;name=medium">


I also never want to hear anyone criticise the Nylander contract again.