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steveospeak

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Aug. 19, 2017
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Pittsburgh Penguins
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Vegas Golden Knights
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 10, 2018 at 12:30 p.m.
Thread: Zuccarello
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chigurrhh</b></div><div>Zuccarello is generally considered to be a better player, though he plays a less valuable position. Pens gave up Filip Gustavsson, Ryan Reaves, Ian Cole (a 3rd round pick), a third round pick, and a 1st round pick to get Brassard and 2 million retained (though the amount Vegas is paying is actually lower because his salary was front loaded).

Gustavsson was a former second round pick like Sprong. They definitely gave up more value in the Brassard trade.</div></div>

Remember the Pens got a high 3rd rd pick and a prospect (Lindberg) back as part of the deal in moving guys like Cole and Reeves to make it work cap wise.

I don't see Zuc being better than Brassard even ignoring positions, I think they are players of a similar impact level. Add in the positional advantage and the extra year of control and clearly Brassard should cost more via trade.

Also just because both Sprong and Gustavsson were both 2nd rd picks it doesn't mean they are equal in terms of trade value. Sprong has always been the more valuable prospect, generally ranked as a top 50 or even top 25 prospect in all of hockey. He's also NHL ready something that Gustavsson is not. If Ottawa offered Gustavsson back to the Pens for Sprong they would clearly turn them down.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2018 at 11:24 a.m.
Thread: Knights trade for EK
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RJL</b></div><div>Not terrible, but probably not close to realistic. I still can’t imaging Ottawa making this deal in July if neither Shea Theodore nor Cody Glass are involved, probably both. Not sure why Toronto makes the space clearing deal either, but that’s minor.</div></div>

Well that is the thing, if Ottawa is insisting on Ryan as part of the deal, which is what a lot of sources are indicating, then their return is capped. Hague, a pair of 1st round picks, a 2nd and a 3rd is a pretty good return given that horrible contract of Ryan's that Vegas would be taking on. Add in Merrill and Lindberg could both have a little trade value at the deadline with regular playing time this year.

As for Toronto I don't see Eakin as a pure salary cap dump. He's a capable 3rd/4th line center who helps on the PK. Toronto is a playoff team lacking forward depth who could use a player like Eakin in their bottom 6 (likely as the 4C). They have plenty of cap space this year and next so it doesn't hurt them at all.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2018 at 9:15 a.m.
Thread: Ek65 to Jersey, just tear it down
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Davisoc</b></div><div>Its hard to see Ryan moving anywhere without Salary being retained. That being said I see similarities between Ryan and Kessel, LET ME FINISH!. Obviously not in point production. However, if you can get him to an organization that he wants to play for and make him work his wasted ass off in the offseason, who knows? I see a trade partner with San Jose, move EK and BR to the sharks and take whatever rookies and picks they can get.</div></div>

Ryan I could see rebounding back to mid-40 point production for the right team, the problem is his contract pays him like a 65-75 point player for the next 4 years. Kessel's "down year" with Toronto he scored 61 points. These guys aren't in the same ball park, as Kessel was and still is in the prime of his career, where as Ryan has been fading. I don't think he's done, but that contract is just too much of a risk for any team to "buy low" on him without serious incentive. Vegas isn't giving up much here, but financially it doesn't make sense for them.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2018 at 3:08 a.m.
Thread: Draisaitl to the Canes (EDM side)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>canesfan3030</b></div><div>I agree that Draisaitl is under a great contract and all, but after all he's a 2C on EDM. Forever. I'm proposing that you trade a 2C, 4C, and cap dump in exchange for 1LW, 1RD, 3C, and 3RD. I know Draisaitl is really good for a 2C, probably one of the best in the league, but RNH can fill that hole and EDM really needs to address their blue line.</div></div>

You make it seem like having an elite center on the 2nd line is a bad thing? The Pens just won back-to-back cups having best 2C in the league. Caps just won this season by having Backstrom as their 2nd line center. Calling Draisaitl just a 2C is a gross undersell, when you say "2C, 4C, and cap dump (which again isn't really a cap dump)", would you call Malkin or Backstrom just a 2C? No of course not. Toronto just gave Tavares a ton of $ to either have him or Matthews center the 2nd line. No one is going to call either one of them just a 2C.

Speaking of 2C's Matt Duchene was traded for Kyle Turris, a pair of 1st round picks and a 3rd rd pick from Ottawa (obviously Turris went to Nashville so Colorado's return was more prospect/pick based). Turris is kind of similar to Skinner, 50+ point player in the last year of his contract looking for an extension. Turris was 2 years older at the time of the deal, but he's also a center so the value is probably even. Duchene only had 2 years remaining on his deal, is a couple years older than Draisaitl and only has one 70 point season in his career. Personally I don't see Faulk being worth 2 1sts and a 3rd rd pick to make up for the other part of the deal. So I'd consider this deal as probably lighter than the Duchene deal. Rask/McKeown = Lucic/Khaira in my book with a potential argument either way for who is getting the better end of that part of the deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2018 at 12:59 a.m.
Thread: Draisaitl to the Canes (EDM side)
I think you are drastically underselling the value of Driasaitl as a trade chip. 7 years of Driasaitl at $8.5M a year is a really good deal. Look at what Tavares just signed for per year and that is a contract that will take him well into his 30's. Couture and Johansen signed $8M a yr averages despite not putting up the production Driasaitl has the past two years (and Couture's deal could get pretty ugly at the end). This is a guy who has back-to-back 70+ point seasons at the age of 21 and 22.

Skinner is a really good winger and Faulk is a good defenseman, but that just isn't enough given the upside and contract value of LD. I also think you are underselling Lucic somewhat. I get it's not a pretty contract and he is 30 coming off a down year, but he has a really strong track record of averaging 20 goals and 50+ points prior to that. For at least the next 3 years that should be a reasonable production goal for him.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2018 at 12:07 a.m.
Thread: Knights trade for EK
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>To me that's way too much to pay for EK especially if Ryan is included . At the cap next year EK gets a big raise, Schmidt might get a big one, MAF, Tuch, Vegas has no cap. The year Vegas had without EK, I don't they are really interested.</div></div>

It is pretty well reported that Vegas was very interested in Karlsson at the deadline and is still one of the front runners. I think they are very interested, I think the question about what it would do to the cap is a concern, but I think it's doable. If the cap goes up just $2.5M next year that would give Vegas about $30M in cap room, assuming Karlsson gets in the $11-11.5M range, that would give Vegas about $18M to re-sign MAF and Schmidt. Tuch will be a restricted FA, but a few years away from UFA so they could probably do a bridge deal, even if it was extended to buy out a year of UFA, it probably won't break the bank. I think they will have plenty of cap space, especially since it's likely the cap will rise closer to $4-5M next year. And if worse comes to worse they could buyout Ryan after next season, that would save them nearly $4M.

As for if Vegas is giving up too much with Ryan included, I think that is a fair argument. It definitely felt a big much considering the financial relief Vegas is giving Ottawa. Maybe take back that 2020 1st rounder, or the 2nd and 3rd rd picks to even it up some.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 14, 2017 at 2:43 p.m.
Thread: crazy year, getting younger.
I don't see any of these trades (outside of Choney) making sense for the other team.

Vegas- There is some value here for Vegas depending on how they view JS, but I think Miller alone would bring back more than this. Stephenson is an okay prospect, but not really someone that Vegas prob. has an interest in as they are full of bottom 6 center types, and 23-25 year old guys with a little upside. Maybe if he had proven himself on the wing, but I just don't see it. Adam Carlsson I'm sure has no real value to Vegas. I don't see Vegas trading their likely RH 1st pair defender who is under control for 3 more years without a serious pick or prospect added to JS.

Toronto- The Maple Leafs are filled with centers and are thin on defensemen, no way they trade a cheap, controllable contract for a rental like Eller who doesn't even fill a need.

Edmonton- I could see the Oilers interested in Carlson via a trade, and he should net the Caps a 1st and maybe another pick or solid prospect. I don't see any sort of scenario where the Oilers would do a sign and trade involving RNH. For one thing, why should the Oilers pay for years that Carlson isn't actually already controlled, and two why give up RNH now if they don't have to (they will need to trade him or someone else in the offseason). The other reason why I don't think they would do a sign and trade is simply that Carlson is too expensive to them. They can't afford to pay him that money unless they move some additional serious cap (not counting RNH). Maybe during the offseason they'd find away to clear the cap space and pursue (or in this case re-sign) Carlson, but unless they make a separate deal at the deadline this would paint them into a bad corner.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 13, 2017 at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: We still want Trouba
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JhonnyCanuck</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>steveospeak</b></div><div>The Winnipeg trade makes no sense. Why would Winnipeg care about dumping Enstrom's salary? He's coming off the books next year and they are currently $7M under the cap. In fact you have them taking on slightly more in salary than they are giving up. Mrazek doesn't carry much value right now, goalies in general aren't that valuable as trade chips and esp. Mrazek coming off a terrible year and with some attitude issues (plus a high price tag relative to his production). And Nyquist and a pair of 2nd rounders don't come close to Trouba</div></div>

Enstrom would come off because in the scenario, Winnipeg would be adding over $9million against the cap. Agree that goalies don't have a ton of trade value, but a 25 year old who has shown signs of being a top guy isn't valueless. So a top 6 Winger, a #1 Goalie, a NHL D-Man(bottom pair), and a pair of second round picks seems like a haul.</div></div>

Are those things true though? Is Mrazek a number 1 goalie? Sure didn't seem like it last year, and If I'm the Jets chances are he's no better than Mason or Hellebuyck. If there is any upgrade it's minimal and Mrazek will cost more b/c he'll get a big raise over Mason for next year (and then is a FA the following year).

Nyquist looked like a top 6 winger his first year and a half, but since then his scoring has dropped. He I guess would push Perrault to the 3rd line which helps some, but is that worth giving up one of the top young defensemen in the game, who's under control for 3 years including this season at a ridiculous discount.

Sproul is maybe a 7th defenseman, who might make the Jets 3rd pairing b/c they are trading away two guys. I'd much rather pay Enstrom for the year.

The problem with the deal is it def. doesn't make the Jets better this year or next year, and then they are losing out on Trouba's 3rd year of team control with only a pair of 2nd rounders. That is a pretty poor return.