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steveospeak

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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 12, 2017 at 5:00 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 12, 2017 at 1:31 p.m.
Thread: Rebuild
Obviously these trades are unlikely as I don't see the Ducks looking to rebuild by next years deadline and of course dealing with the NMC (could def. limit the Ari and Vegas deals).

I think the Arizona deal is interesting from their perspective, they could look to make the jump to contention that year.

The Vegas deal I don't think really works b/c unless Vegas is somehow already contending in 2018/2019 (which seems highly unlikely), they are basically paying a potential lottery 1st for the true downside of Kessler's career. That doesn't make much sense for them.

The Pens trade doesn't make much sense either as their winger depth/talent going forward looks really strong, even if Hornqvist walks as a FA they have the in house options to replace him. I don't see them taking on the contract risk (and likely adding picks or taking on a bad contract to dump him) for a position they don't have a need for. Maybe if he was a center that would be one thing since they look weak there long term behind Sid and Malkin.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 12, 2017 at 12:48 p.m.
Thread: trade deadline :)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MTLaveragefan</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dylan1995</b></div><div>

No, no they don't. OEL is going to be there captain and stepping stone and domi is a very good and skilled player putting good points up on a dumpster fire team sorry but OEL&gt; paches and domi &gt; lehkonen 2nd pick &gt; morrow</div></div>


We are talking about MTL's current captain who has been a constant 30+ goal scorer for 4 years in a row ( at 4.5M/year), a A- prospect who had 18 goals last year and a B+ prospect in Defense -&gt; both team are giving a lot on each side... thats how it works</div></div>

I agree with Dylan1995, Arizona would lose on all 3 levels of this trade. OEL is a top 10 defenenseman (top 15 at worst) in the league, Pacioretty is a top 20 and prob. top 15 winger, but defensemen are more valuable than wingers. Also while both are signed for 2 more years, OEL is 3 years younger so extending him on a big deal makes a lot more sense.

Domi vs Lehkonen is an interesting debate and i think it's close esp. since they are both wingers, but I'm going domi. I think his upside is higher and he's already shown it with a 50 point season 2 years ago.

As for Morrow, at one time he was a good defenseman prospect, but now he's an older prospect and hasn't shown he can stick at the NHL level. He might be a 3rd pairing guy or a 7th defender, but that isn't worth a 2nd rounder (esp. what is likely to be a higher 2nd rounder).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 12, 2017 at 11:35 a.m.
Thread: Because the AVS can't get everyone at camp....
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dcc94</b></div><div>Why would EDM do that??? Bad trade as Maatta has been inj for most of his career and Nurse is better. EDM also doesn't need prospects (Sprong). If EDM is going to trade RNH, its going to be for a better winger.</div></div>

I think you have it back-wards, why would the Pens do this trade. Nurse might be cheaper, but Maatta has been way better, even with the injuries (which has only really impacted 1 season). Both are really young, but Maatta is established and signed for 5 more seasons at a reasonable rate.

Sprong is a top 25 prospect in the NHL at just 20 years old and he is ready to play at that level this year (though the Pens might wait till mid-year given their winger depth). Guy has the potential to be a 30 goal scorer and a 50-60 point player and in the right situation could do that this year. He's on his ELC and will obviously be pretty cheap for at least his first couple of years. Hornqvist is still a top 6 winger with 25 goal potential.

In return the Pens would get RNH (at a reduced rate) for 4 years. Nugent-Hopkins is good and the price being lower helps, but he's a 50 point player esp. if he's stuck in the 3C role (as he obviously will be with the Pens) and not a top PP guy. Nurse is young and has upside, but thus far hasn't shown himself to be an established NHL'er. His offensive game is non-existent, his possession numbers are below average, even in Maatta's worst year of his career this past year he basically played as well as Nurse has ever shown.

I could see like Hornqvist and a 1st for RNH, maybe another high pick as well, but it makes zero sense for the Pens to give up all of this for RNH
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 12, 2017 at 12:40 a.m.
Thread: Rus5, Swe7
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>steveospeak</b></div><div>These trades are way off:

Vancouver- They are probably the least likeliest team to trade for Carlson as the chances that they contend are really small (practically non-existent) and even if they are remotely close to contending I don't see them trading a good prospect and a 1st for a rental. Maybe they'd add some players that had multi-years left at that cost, but not a guy like Carlson. That's also more than Carlson is likely to command on the trade market.

Toronto- The Maple Leafs have zero need for an aging expensive blueliner and they also don't have the cap room. Even ignoring that, Orpik is not bringing back a 2nd round pick and a young prospect. That is a terrible deal for Toronto.

Vegas- Yeah no this makes zero sense. Let's ignore the return for a second, and recognize the fact that Vegas doesn't have a need for Grubauer. They have Fluery for two years and Grubauer only has control for 2 years. So he wouldn't be replacing Fluery. And as you mentioned they already have a young goalie in Pickard behind Fluery. No they can't trade Pickard for a 1st, and even if they could why would they do this deal in that scenario?

Shea Theodore is worth way more than a potential late round 1st for Pickard (to say nothing of Lindberg) and he's worth way more than Grubauer as well even if Grubauer was going to start. Theodore is a potential stud and under control for 5 more seasons, he's a former 1st round pick and has looked really good so far in his NHL career. His value to Vegas is sky high and Washington could add 2 1st rounders and I don't think Vegas would have any interest.</div></div>



If Vegas goes .500 this year, and doesn't have a yardsale where everyone is available (after taking trades to not draft Vatanen, Staal, etc), while Vancouver is totally out of the playoff picture and not looking to make a splash at the deadline to help the Sedins at least take one more trip to the postseason (after signing Gagner, Vanek, Nilsson etc), I will eat an uncooked package of ramen.

Leafs want Orpik because he checked them out of the playoffs this Spring. They give a fourth line forward and a 2nd pick because it's the trade deadline and their GMs are drunk on excitement, power, and Molson?

Pickard started 50 games last year. At 25 he could start 50 more this year and, until the yard sale starts, make a lot of highlight reel saves, behind a team with two second lines, two third lines, and a couple second pairs of defensemen.

I like that one of you is complaining that I didn't add enough great young talent, and the other is complaining that I added too much great young talent. I'll take it. Thanks, friends, for clearing that up.

Do you think the above team would win? Do you think it would develop more great NHL players, long-term, than they're on track to build up if they just pull up the almost-all-Canadian-or-American guys in their system right now?</div></div>

Umm who is complaining that you didn't get enough back in these trades... Everyone is talking about how unrealistic it is for the Caps, and everyone else seems to be Caps fans.

-Where did I say Vegas wasn't going to be selling at (or before) the deadline? I don't think they are going .500 this year, I just think that if they actually want to go .500 in the future they probably don't trade away their best young defensive player who has 5 years of team control for a goalie for a year and a half, a time period where they not only won't be contending, but already have the position well in hand with Fluery and Pickard. Theodore is a centerpiece player for Vegas, Caps could offer Vrana and a 1st and Vegas would say no. They would have to be BLOWN AWAY by an offer and def. arent selling him for pennies on the dollar.

Caps may be able to trade Graubauer to a contender at the deadline for a late 1st rounder, but goalies simply don't have a lot of value in trades and they aren't going to bring back a potential 1st pairing defender like Theodore given his age and years of control.

-Orpik was really bad in that Toronto series (and in the whole playoffs). In that series he was -4 +/- with just a pair of assists. Despite 4 games going to overtime, Orpik only managed to exceed 17:40 in one playoff game that series and that is with Alzner missing 4 of the games. Orpik def. didn't do anything that series to increase his value to Toronto or any other team. There is zero reasons why they would want his terrible contract. The Caps could offer him for a 7th and Toronto would turn them down flat.

-Odds are very unlikely that Vancouver is contending by the deadline, they haven't been close either of the last two years. Not sure why they are likely to contend this year. And if for some reason they are in contention, they aren't giving up two extremely valuable pieces for a rental. This is more than the Caps gave up in the Shattenkirk trade, and that is with the Caps pick having good odds to being one of the final 4 picks in the round. I mean I get that some GMs make really bad trades, but the odds of this happening are so remote. Again if they are looking to contend they will focus on smaller rental pieces or bigger pieces they can control for multiple years.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 11, 2017 at 9:55 p.m.
Thread: Rus5, Swe7
These trades are way off:

Vancouver- They are probably the least likeliest team to trade for Carlson as the chances that they contend are really small (practically non-existent) and even if they are remotely close to contending I don't see them trading a good prospect and a 1st for a rental. Maybe they'd add some players that had multi-years left at that cost, but not a guy like Carlson. That's also more than Carlson is likely to command on the trade market.

Toronto- The Maple Leafs have zero need for an aging expensive blueliner and they also don't have the cap room. Even ignoring that, Orpik is not bringing back a 2nd round pick and a young prospect. That is a terrible deal for Toronto.

Vegas- Yeah no this makes zero sense. Let's ignore the return for a second, and recognize the fact that Vegas doesn't have a need for Grubauer. They have Fluery for two years and Grubauer only has control for 2 years. So he wouldn't be replacing Fluery. And as you mentioned they already have a young goalie in Pickard behind Fluery. No they can't trade Pickard for a 1st, and even if they could why would they do this deal in that scenario?

Shea Theodore is worth way more than a potential late round 1st for Pickard (to say nothing of Lindberg) and he's worth way more than Grubauer as well even if Grubauer was going to start. Theodore is a potential stud and under control for 5 more seasons, he's a former 1st round pick and has looked really good so far in his NHL career. His value to Vegas is sky high and Washington could add 2 1st rounders and I don't think Vegas would have any interest.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 11, 2017 at 8:16 p.m.
Thread: Deal with MTL
I think both deals are pretty bad to be honest.

You are dumping about 80% of Brouwer's contract for 3 years on a team and aren't really giving them anything to make it worth their while. Andersson is okay and might have an NHL future, but he really doesn't move the needle, esp. since it's for 3 years of Brouwer. Poirer doesn't seem to have much prospect value. On top of that you are actually getting back something of value (albeit small value), it's not like its for a 7th rounder or something. Benn is an actual NHL'er. I don't know if the two prospects alone would be worth Benn. Benn was just traded for a 4th round pick and a 7th D. You are basically asking MTL to take about the same value and a big contract in return.

As for the Duchene deal Colorado is getting nothing here. If they were willing to accept this type of deal of non-prospects and a vet 3rd pairing defender, plus a future first they would have easily traded Duchene by now. With not having a 1st in 2018, Calgary will have to pay quite a bit more than other contenders willing/able to flip that pick.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 11, 2017 at 4:08 p.m.
Thread: Vegas Opening Night
Don't think any of these trades really make much sense. Sbisa is probably they only one they'd really deal by opening night from this group (maybe Merrill), but the values on these deals are way out of whack.

Kings- This value is probably the closest, as the Kings could def. use Schmidt and a 2nd, 3rd and a guy who's had some AHL success and still relatively young is somewhat useful to Vegas (esp. 2018 picks which they are in short supply of). I think Vegas could probably do better, but it's close. I just think there is zero chance of Schmidt being traded before the season (esp. with the injury issue), and he isn't even likely to be dealt at the deadline. I think Vegas really believes he could be a long term option and if he has a strong year in a top 4 role he could be extended next offseason.

Caps- Speaking of long term assets for Vegas I don't think many are more valuable than Theodore. Not only is there basically no chance they'd trade him, but there is no reason why they'd trade him for this type of return. Barber is an okay prospect, but not really a centerpiece guy and Lewington really doesn't add any value. They aren't coming close to Theodore's value, and Vegas wouldn't even consider this deal even in Washington added a 1st round pick. On top of that you add in Orpik's negative contract value, which is going to cost a couple good picks or prospects to move on it's own.

Islanders- Vegas would do this deal in an instant, but no way NYI would consider it. Merrill is a solid 3rd pair or 7th defender option under control on the cheap for two years, but Pulock is a former 1st round pick who looks ready to make the jump to the NHL. The Islanders have control of him for 5 more years and his upside is far higher than Merrill's (even if this year he might not be as productive). On top of that Vegas gets another solid rental winger who has 20 goal and 40 point potential that they can flip at the deadline for a bigger return.

Ottawa- Sbisa is an okay 2nd pair option and a good 3rd pair option for a team like Ottawa and should bring back a 3rd or maybe slightly more, yet somehow Vegas retains some salary, gives up the better pick and gets an AHL body as the return. I could see him being moved to Ottawa for sure, but not nothing.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 11, 2017 at 3:16 p.m.