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Big John T
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 10:15 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Josh Manson makes 4.1 million a year which is fair for what he contributes. Nylander is worth at least 6.5 million for what he contributes to the team. That is a gulf of about 2/3rds. Teams value scoring more than defensive defenseman, mainly because the difference between the best defensive defenceman and an average one is very small. The difference between the best offensive players and average ones is far greater.</div></div>

I understand why offense is more valuable than defense, But that doesn't mean you can get a guy who is arguably a top 10 DFD for what is essentially spare pieces and a 2nd, Manson's value to the league may not be high but his value to the ducks is, Not saying he's immovable but it would take alot more than this offer imo
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 10:14 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
Power play points are easier, and can be somewhat arbitrary. In a 31 team league, the 31 right handed defensemen with the most even strength points should be considered#1 RHD, right?

If you can't get last year's #30 for Nylander, you're probably not getting #8 for Johnsson.

<a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints,points" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints,points</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 10:09 a.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Fair, but why then are teams clamouring for fast skating puck movers for the back end? Also why do forwards who score get paid more than defensive defenceman?</div></div>

Same reason a DH who hits .240 with 35 HR gets paid more than a defensive whiz that hits .285 with little power. Supply and demand. But that defensive whiz prevents runs from being scored which is just as valuable. It’s just not sexy or put butts in the seats. Remember the add campaign “Chicks dig the long ball”?

But there is an old adage....defense wins championships. And another specific to hockey...build from the net out.

Outside of Gretzky’s Oilers how many defensive poor teams have found playoff success?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 12:43 p.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>It absolutely better be determining how much they get paid. If you can't earn your paycheck, you are a bad contract.

I agree that you need both types of players and the right balance to win it all. However, I also say you don't overpay for the sake of making a move. Nylander is better than almost all the defenceman he gets traded for on here. I think deep down, most of the people on here know that too but they are fans that are hoping they can win a big trade and throw mud in the face of Leaf fans. Which is fine, just be honest about it. I am not saying you are doing that, you are asking smart questions and helping move the conversation along.</div></div>

And how are you able to compare the players? What makes you say Nylander is better than someone like Nylander or Pesce? Due to their different roles, saying one is “better” than the other can’t really be proven without some sort of WAR stat or something like that.

Nylander is a terrific player, yes. But if you were to insert one of these defensemen into the lineup right now, the impact they’d have is huge.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 1:20 p.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I disagree completely, Pesce hasn't helped his team do anything over the past 3 seasons. Nylander help take a last place team to the playoffs, twice.

Explain this to me though and I'll change my mind.

If Pesce is worth more than Nylander, why is making under 4 Million? And honestly would anyone really pay more than 4 million for a guy who doesn't score more than 20 points a season?</div></div>

Pesce's strengths are on the defensive side of the puck, not offensive. We also have to look at the rest of the team, because there are very few scenarios where one player can vault his team into the playoffs (Mackinnon and Hall last year, Price in 2015, etc). Yes, Nylander contributed to a playoff team, but this was a team that included a lot of high powered offense. Matthews, Marner, JVR and Kadri were all driving that team. In Carolina, they haven't had that sort of offensive talent. Aho and Teravainen are both good weapons, but not to the same level as the Leafs have. The Leafs also have stable goaltending in Andersen, while the Canes haven't had that in years. None of this is Pesce's fault. I would expect that if the two were to switch places, the Leafs would love the defensive support and still make the playoffs, while the Canes wouldn't terribly miss Pesce due to their surplus of D and be in a better overall spot.

It's very tough to say that Pesce is worth more than Nylander, because the market is weird to begin with, and Nylander's contract situation makes it a lot weirder. Last season, featured a Henrique for Vatanen swap. Nylander certainly carries more value than Henrique, and I prefer Pesce to Vatanen. The factor of Nylander being unsigned complicates things a bit as well. However, Pesce is the perfect fit for the Leafs D core. He's a shutdown defenseman in every sense of the word, and he's at a great value for a long time. He's a great partner for Morgan Rielly, given he has a good first pass and holds down the fort in his own end. Nobody can deny the fact that the Leafs need this type of player in their lineup. His salary cap hit is completely irrelevant to his value in the lineup. While I obviously don't know how these negotiations went down, it appears that Pesce took the security over a massive payday, and the Canes got a player that is going to improve and be on a steal of a contract in the long run.

Toronto needs a player like Pesce on their right side. That much is undeniable. The pure value between Nylander and Pesce is debatable, but it's the concept of the deal that makes sense. If the Leafs want Pesce, the Canes demand Nylander. And if the Canes wanted, Nylander, the Leafs ask for Pesce. It's not a scenario of which player is more valuable than another, it's a matter of making the swap that helps both teams in the short and long term.

I can't speak for everyone else, but I've never really tried to argue value in the deal, just that the deal in general makes a ton of sense. Add whatever pieces to either side you need to even it out, but I do know that it's not a tremendous amount of value that needs to be added to make it work.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8, 2018 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread: Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>He was one of several options I could have used. I figured he cause less hate to be thrown my way.

One thing though that never was answered in this entire post is this. If these type of defenseman that everyone wants to trade Nylander for are so valuable, why do they all make less than 4.5 million a year?

People will say Pesce is more valuable than Nylander and then pay Nylander 7 million plus while the other guy gets under 4.5 and that is a fair deal.

Offense is worth more than defence from a salary perspective and yet people are on here saying these guys are worth so much more in a trade. That doesn't make any sense.</div></div>

You need to understand. Nobody is saying a Manson or a Pesce is as good as or better than Nylander. They are not. There is a difference between ability and value/trade value. There is a difference between financial value and on ice value. There is a difference between how big market clubs and small market clubs manage their roster and finances. For a team like Carolina that trades away RFAs because they can’t pay them a 23 year old, RHD (harder to come by), with a 6 year 24m contract of Pesce’s ability is not replacable. Team needs factor in. Very few teams in the league would consider Justin Faulk an expendale asset. Carolina does and can. The Ducks are short on RH fwds but their top 6 is set and have some good young talent on the way. Who would replace Manson? Nothing in the system for RD to, so that means another trade to fix that hole or overpay for a FA in the offseason for someone who likely isn’t as good.

Trade value and player value are two different things. Driven by different factors.
Forum: NHL SigningsNov. 2, 2018 at 2:44 p.m.
Thread: Tampa Bay Lightning signed Yanni Gourde (6 Years / $5,166,666 AAV)
Here's another team w/ major cap issues on the horizon. Gourde should be an excellent value at just over $5M AAV, but they also have Kucherov's mega deal about to kick in next season which carries a raise of about $5M AAV. And, they still need to lock up pending RFA Braden Point, who should require at least $7M+ AAV on an 8 year deal. They're gonna have to make some major changes involving the overpaid veterans such as Callahan, Killorn, Johnson, and Palat. That's where the they need to trim the fat. Probably 3 out of 4 of the aforementioned Forwards will be playing elsewhere next season. Plus, star net minder Andre Vasilevsiy has only one more season remains on his current deal ($3.5M AAV), and he'll need a $5M raise as well. Maybe they can trade Johnson and co. for some draft picks/prospects in order to save money. They'll be very top heavy moving forward.

Just to clarify: I don't think Palat and Johnson are necessary overpaid, they just don't seem to fit in to the Lightning's long term plan w/ the current salary cap ceiling.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 30, 2018 at 9:04 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 24, 2018 at 7:46 p.m.
Thread: Marl-NO What if Marleau was not signed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>But who would you replace them with? We are going into the playoffs you need to have a roster and try and compete. You don’t say bah we’re not going to win and unload 3 major parts of your roaster at TDL. Vegas and capitals made the finals with suspect D. It’s ridiculous to think you tear down your roster for a few picks going into the playoffs.</div></div>

I dont remember corectlly all the lineups but i think it was something like :

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johnsson - Plekanec - Brown
<strong>JVR </strong>- <strong>Bozak</strong> - <strong>Komarov </strong>

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Polak

So its like the whole 4th line that was left walking out, and you could get at least some leverage for them if you would tank the last season knowing Tavares is coming and you could pull Pacioretty trade on JVR

4th line would easily be prospects from last year with their 8:00 TOI

but maybe thats just me, being military educated and thinking strategically and few steps in front, not just from meal to meal....