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tm0000

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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 29 at 1:49 p.m.
Thread: Deadline Dealin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Joseph is a lot better than both pieces coming back. I should show u the analytics for Pageau and Wahlstrom this year . They’re goddamn awful</div></div>

I don't love being a "blame the coach" kinda guy but JGP and Wahlstrom's numbers have been done in by some seriously questionable coaching decisions, which is why I think if they moved to another team they would see a bump up in their production - provided the next team doesn't make the same mistakes Lane Lambert (and, to an extent, Barry Trotz) made with these guys.

Wahlstrom is an offense-first player, always has and always will be. The problem is, he spends just as much time playing on defensive-minded lines as he has on offensive-minded ones - since the beginning of 2021-22, his time spent skating with Mat Barzal and JG Pageau at 5v5 is almost identical (539:49 vs. 519:27 in 139 GP - and, predictably, he does better with Barzal. Skating with Barzal, his possession numbers are more or less even and the team gets 61.1% of the goals scored; with Pageau, he gets about 43% of the chances and GF% is 51.2. They've really tried to take his square peg and put it in a round hole over and over again and wonder why he hasn't panned out. I also throw a little of the blame on Barry Trotz, because in Trotz's last year the team was wellll out of it by the end of the season - perfect time to give a young kid some run and let him develop. But for some reason, after going 10-9-19 in 13:23 per night through the all-star break that year, he then spent the last 33 games of the year getting only 10:27 per night in the bottom 6 and going 3-2-5 in that time. He's a perfect change of scenery candidate.

Pageau, meanwhile, is suffering from his reputation as a strong faceoff guy and awful deployment. Under Trotz, he averaged about a 44/56 o-zone/d-zone start split and his possession numbers were not great but livable (usually 47% CF). The last 2 years under Lambert he's seen his d-zone starts jump 63% and now 71% this year - combined with the neverending parade of defense injuries behind him, and I'd say it's a miracle he still kept his CF around 47% last year and not at all a surprise that he's down to 38% this year. There's definitely some decline happening in there, sure - but I think with more judicious usage you'll see him actually looking more like his old self again.

I think the trade is an interesting value - Wahlstrom has more upside than Kastelic so i'd say he's marginally more valuable; I think Joseph is more valuable than JGP which is why I threw retention in. I also think the fits work well for both teams - moving Joseph and presumably one of Tarasenko/Kubalik gives you the roster spots to give ice time to the bevy of young wingers in Belleville (and Wahlstrom), and Kastelic is redundant if you bring JGP in. Personally, I don't mind adding a modest sweetener to the Islanders side, whether in the form of more retention or another asset, but I think it's a deal that can benefit both teams this year and next.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 23 at 2:15 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4 at 6:22 p.m.
Thread: Dvorak out for the season with trade deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>You spout these numbers all the time but when a draft pick hits you get 7 years of value from them until they hit UFA.

30% hit rate, but when they do hit they provide immense value to a team</div></div>

You really wanna go down on how much and how long said skill/talent offers value? Drafting is a thing but development and team window is also to be included in such calculation. I wouldn't say that those coming guys do not bring something but the time between the draft and the moment they reach a profitable moment should ring a bell for you ...

2 texts on the draft pics values :

1 - <a href="https://summit.sfu.ca/_flysystem/fedora/2023-02/etd22223.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Valuation of NHL Draft Picks using Functional Data Analysis</a>
2 - <a href="https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">What‟s An NHL Draft Pick Worth? A Value Pick Chart for the National Hockey League </a>

If you look on Google there is also a 3rd link but it is an auto download the text is named : «Mining NHL Draft Data and A New Value Pick Chart»

Your 30% hit rate is kinda vague here. from round 1 rank 1 to 12, we're at a 65% chance to hit the league with a greater talent/skill, from 12 to 25 we're at something like 45%, and 25+ less than 30% but as ranks fall the curve of talent skill also downgrade. So yeah they can bring a whole lot of things to a team and contribute but for how long and with what consistency?

It's hard to answer but again research offers perspective <a href="https://hockeyanswered.com/what-is-the-average-career-length-of-an-nhl-player/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">here</a>

Go have fun reading the papers and come back to us with your enlightenment about it. GMs have a huge math problem with this, and with our huge sensitivity as fans, we elude too much of this kind of logic and therefore miss the value by a lot.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4 at 10:17 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 28, 2023 at 8:35 a.m.