Quoting: brenfox31
I would tend to agree that they should get more, and that they will ask for more, but I think that the three of them together would take pay cuts in order to keep this leafs team together. So as much as based on percentages and whatnot they should get more, its possible that they don't. I think Matthews gets 11.5 or so, Nylander 7.2, and Marner around 8.25
Question is, why on earth would either Marner or Nylander get that kind of money?
Nylander is just like Ehlers, so 7 @ 6 is reasonable, however that does not factor in the cap increase. People use the Pasternak deal AS the cap increase for his comparable, not as the starting point. Pasta is by far better than Nylander, so he will get about 6.25-6.66 (6.5 if you will) on a 6 year deal (one less to also factor in the increase, getting him to ufa a year earlier). If Nylander continues to hold out, expect that number to go down, as the Leafs will prove he is a want, and not a need. I expect that should this holdout continue, Dubas will offer a max of 6.25, and the likely contract will go down to 5 years at 6 should he decline that.
On to Marner, He is not that much better than Nylander. He is better, no doubt, and his role is different for sure, but statistically, not much better. If he were to sign today, he would get about 500k more (give or take) than Nylander, due to his role being more important. Most cap projections for him come from the fact that he is expected to explode with JT this year inflating his price, but people seem to think that when Toronto fans/spectators say he will get between 7-7.75 (7.5 if you will) that does not include the big season, and that this is the base he would get today. It is possible he explodes more than that, but in all likelihood what we end up with will look like this:
Nylander: 6@6.25-6.5
Marner: 6@Nylander's + 1-1.5 million
Matthews: 8@11 (JT acts as a hard cap and a hard floor for Matthews, so expect the same contract on an 8 year deal).
An interesting option with Matthews (that I doubt will ever happen) would be to give him 6 years at 9 million, freeing up some more space, but leading to a larger pay day down the road, so the 8 year deal is likely better. Plus I doubt Matthews even considers anything shorter than 8 years, as that would lower his hit below the JT hit.