This is good analysis but I still think he’ll get more. I think Marner is much mire dynamic.

Lol. No it's not. First of all, you gotta take into account the cap hit percentage instead of the actual cap hit. Draisaitl's cap hit percentage was 11.33% when he signed it, so for next year that would be $9.4039M for Marner since the cap is going up. Then you gotta take into account the impact of each player, not just points. Marner is better defensively, and makes everyone he plays with better. He's also one of the smartest players in the game today. Draisaitl had to play the majority of his time on McDavid's wing to get all his points.. in the end, if a Marner deal goes the full 8 years, he's over $11M with ease. Marner's camp offered 8 years at $9M AAV in the summer, he's not taking that little now after the year he's had.

Edit: as for Marner being "tied to the hip of Tavares" .. that's actually false. He spent most of his first 2 seasons playing with Bozak and JVR.. and spent some time on the 4th line where he made Matt Martin look like an offensive force. So that's not a good argument for the same contract as Draisaitl.

Lol just was going to say something about the cap percentage.

Well thought out BCAPP. Marner's argument will be "Hey Leafs you overpaid your other. two RFAs, I want the same."
Those one year deals for Johnson and Kapanen probably won't happen. IMO Leafs gotta trade some one to get Johnsson and Kapanen are longer term deal.

I don't know why some folks think Marner is deserving to be paid the 3rd player in the league.

Oilers wouldn’t do that trade.

Drais is a bargain at $8.5 mill!!
leaves will offer $9 mill/per, may face offer sheet of $10.
Marne is NOT a franchise corner stone, just a fast&small winger, who's not a sniper.
His assists are from Tavares&Matthews.
Kessel 2..-~

Marner is more talented but there equally valuable to there respective teams, so Marner will make slightly more.

Honestly this is trash. From the trade to the free agent signing. Edmonton will never do that trade giving away one of their top D prospects for a 4th liner. And Marner is going to get more, look at his fellow teammates. Tavares at 11 Matthews at 11.7 Nylander at 7..... Did any of these guys take a pay cut??

I addressed the inflation argument.

"Finally in regards to inflation, I would argue not taking inflation into account for the two years offsets the difference in value between a c and a winger."

Marner is getting his big money for his production this year not in years 1 and 2. He has been tied to the hip to Tavares this year. McDavid and draisatl spent time together in his contract year but WAY less than marner and Tavares.

Tavares was a UFA so really isn't a comparison. Matthews is a goal scoring c. They make more. Nylander likely deserved more low 6s.

In the end you're right in the sense that I think marner will end up in the high 9s. In regards to paying him significantly over 10? I think there is no good precedent and it will be an overpayment.

This specifically I thought was just an interesting example

You "addressed" the inflation, but dismissed it for no good reason at all. It's a big factor actually. The $9.4M for a 8 year deal would actually be a steal of a deal for Marner

I don’t think dismissed is the proper word. He is basically stating the difference between a centre and winger who put up similar numbers is 900k.
While Marner surely will make more than Draisatl, this is a good analysis @BCAPP . Biggest difference now though is that precedent has been set for handing out big money contracts to RFAs

Marner can play centre if needed.. Draisaitl has played most of his career on McDavid's wing. It's a terrible logic

I personally don’t know the stats on Draisatl, but it’s true that he hasn’t always played with McDavid. Marner on the other hand has excelled this year playing on the wing. Tavares’ wing nonetheless, so it’s actualy imo fair logic to say that he has benefitted greatly from that. This isn’t Edmonton either where opposing teams can focus entirely on shutting down just two guys. And has Marner ever played centre on the leafs? Saying he can and him actually having the stats to back it up are kinda different

So my argument is that the 900K difference per year, 9.4 vs 8.5 M is for the fact that centers are more valuable than wingers. I didn't just dismiss it. Honestly the difference between high end wingers and C's is usually larger than that (~9-10%)

So I actually checked this out (https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_linecombo.php)
In his contract year, Draisatl spent 61% of his time playing with McDavid. Specifically 60% of his ES time and 83% of his PP time

By comparison
Marner spent 86% of his time this year playing with Tavares, specifically 88% of ES time, 94% of PP time, and 36% of SH time. he also spent a bunch of the time away from Tavares with Matthews.

So I'll be the first to admit I expected the ES McDavid and Draisatl numbers to be more at the 35% not 60%. but regardless Marner spent significantly more time with tavares (and even more with Matthews) than Draisatl spent with McDavid, which I would argue more than compensates for the difference in skill between Tavares and McDavid

I want marner to fire his agent and hire you. lol

With respect, everything you said was false after the 9mill/per.

In the end I think the mittenstringers have really screwed the Leafs by saying all year how he deserves 10 million plus. He really doesn't by comparables. Comparables (the most accurate I've found are actually Tarasenko and Gaudreau) who by percent of cap would put him 8s. But because of all the talk he'll be pushed up higher. I really think it's overpay if he gets north of 10.

If I were Dubas I gamble, and wait for Aho, Point, and Rantanen to be signed. Marner for sure should come below Rantanen and Point. Marner should probably come below Aho, while marner has slightly out produced him, Aho plays centre which has a premium AND has no one near the caliber of Tavares to play with.

Fingers crossed. The offseason should be interesting. ?

Actually, a better way to look at it is over the full 3 years of their ELC. A contract isn't judged on 1 year, so saying that "Marner has been tied to Tavares" wouldn't have as significant of an impact since it was only 1 of the 3 years..
So looking at it like this:
Both players are their even strength time with players, power play it's kinda expected that the top offensive guys play with each other for the most offence so take that out of the equation.
Draisaitl:
2014/15 -13.46% with Eberle and Yakupov, 10.73% with Perron and RNH - 9 points in 37 games (not good)
2015/16 - 38.35% with Hall and Purcell, 8.01% with Hall and Yakupov - 51 points in 72 games (not bad)
2016/17 - 36.98% with Maroon and McDavid, 7.27% with Letestu and McDavid, 5.12% with Lucic and McDavid - 77 points in 82 games (fairly good)
Over his ELC that's 137 points in 191 games for 0.717 points per game.

Marner:
2016/17 - 64.38% with JVR and Bozak, 5.45% with Kadri and Bozak - 61 points in 77 games (fairly good)
2017/18 - 27.53% with Marleau and Kadri, 26.68% with JVR and Bozak - 69 points in 82 games (a nice number, and fairly good)
2018/19 - 54.53% with Hyman and Tavares, 6.38% with Kadri and Matthews - currently at 86 points in 74 games to date
Over his ELC that's 216 points in 233 games played for 0.927 PPG

So not only does Marner produce more, but Marner has mostly played with 3rd like guys in JVR, Bozak, Kadri, Marleau and Hyman.. Marner has carried his lines that he's played on with his creativity, smarts and overall dynamic play style. Draisaitl has had his most success on McDavid's wing. This also shows that Marner is more versatile and can play up and down the lineup and still perform. Can Drasaitl? The stats say he can't. He's proven in the past that he can't carry his own line and even many analysts have talked about that.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love for Marner to take a Draisaitl type deal. It's just not market value and not a real good comparison. On a 8 year deal, he would be one of the top 3 if not the top highest paid player by AAV. Leafs can't afford that right now and it's gonna come down to less years at a less AAV. My guess is either 3 or 6 years. But the stats say that Marner is much better than Draisaitl and that it's not even a comparable contract

If Marner wants to get paid big money, he is basically forgetting about his first two years contracts. They earn him 6-7 million. He is getting paid off this year and so did Draisatl.

Marner in no shape or form deserves to be top 3 or highest paid player by AAV. He is at best the third best RFA this summer. Rantanen and Point both deserve more than him. And whether you want to accept or not, centres make more than wingers.

While Marner certainly has been driver on his lines, there is no denying that Tavares has also helped Marner.

Did you know that in the 6 years leading up to this one (ie before he joined the leafs) Tavares was 3th in the league in goals (http://hkref.com/tiny/4BQTG), and 7th in the league in points (http://hkref.com/tiny/w5Rvn).

Look at Marner's numbers pre and post Tavares
year---gpg---ppg
1st year--0.25--0.79
2nd year--0.27--0.84
Enter Tavares
3rd year--0.34--1.16

Marner is a very good player. But he is a winger and not a C. He is entering his second contract off ELC. He is an RFA without arbitration rights. He is playing with a top 10 centre (who he certainly helps make better, but who also helps make him better). He deserves to be paid like the damn good and electrifying player he is. It doesn't mean he should have a top 3 in the league contract.