Forums/Armchair-GM

My Final Word on a Marner Contract

Created by: Random2152
Initial Creation Date: Aug 16, 2019
Published: Aug 17 at 3:46 pm
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
For those of you who do not want to read this lengthy post, the tl;dr version is I will live with a 7@10.5aav deal (all in SB's and with a 20+ team NTC/NMC). It is an overpayment by ~1-1.5 million, but considering all young stars are underpaid relative to their production (even McDavid, Matthews, and insert young star here) I will live with it.
Below is a projected Leafs roster with the 'fair' Marner contract.

For those of you who want to see contract comparables and a deeper breakdown; grab the popcorn.

Going based on news (Matthews) and my opinions/100% factual statements (not Matthews) here are a list of contract comparables for Marner (in no particular order). There are other comparable players but I will only be profiling some of the more prominent ones who currently have a contract.
Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest (that and the fact that he isn't a comparable for any of these players except for Kane).

Name - Contract - Starting Year - Cap% of starting year

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%
Kane-------- 5@6.300 - 2010-11 - 10.61%
Tarasenko- 8@7.500 - 2015-16 - 10.50%
Aho---------- 5@8.454 - 2019-20 - 10.37%
Nylander-- 6@6.962 - 2018-19 - 8.76%
Pastrnak-- 6@6.666 - 2017-18 - 8.89%
Gaudreau- 6@6.750 - 2016-17 - 9.25%
Meier------- 4@6.000 - 2019-20 - 7.36%

A basic average on the term and the % gives you a contract of 5.625 years at a 10% hit. That gives you roughly a 5@8 - 6@8.5 which is right around the Aho contract and intrinsically is fairly close in terms of Marner's actual value on that term. At this point however, I do not think he will get his intrinsic worth and will be badly overpaid.

Basic counting stats (in per game for context):
Name - Year 1 GPG/PPG - Year 2 GPG/PPG - Year 3 GPG/PPG - etc, until 2nd contract starts

Matthews-- 0.49/0.84 - 0.55/1.02 - 0.54/1.07
Kane--------- 0.26/0.88 - 0.31/0.88 - 0.37/1.07
Tarasenko- 0.21/0.29 - 0.33/0.67 - 0.48/0.95
Aho---------- 0.29/0.60 - 0.37/0.83 - 0.37/1.01
Marner----- 0.25/0.79 - 0.27/0.84 - 0.32/1.15
Nylander--- 0.27/.059 - 0.27-0.75 - 0.24-0.74
Pastrnak--- 0.22/0.59 - 0.29/0.51 - 0.45/0.93
Gaudreau- 1.00/1.00 - 0.30/0.80 - 0.38/0.99
Meier------- 0.09/0.18 - 0.26/0.44

Basic counting stats (in /pg context) essentially show that (Auston Matthews is a ****ing beast) Marner is extremely comparable with players like Aho and Gaudreau, and is a step above Nylander while being multiple steps below Matthews.

Going off of this we can guess at a 'fair' contract as being the average of Gaudreau and Aho's deals. That comes to 5.5@9.81% or 5.5@8. Gaudreau was signed in a past RFA contract scenario, so I think it would be fair to add up to 1 million to this aav in order to account for this (surpassing the Aho deal in he skew). Strictly value wise this is what he is worth and my highest 'fair' valuation on him of 6@9.000 seems mostly in line with this projection. I will be basing any contract signed off of this number, and will be shocked if he comes in anywhere near it from the news I have been hearing.

As CF doesn't have the ability to put images in these descriptions, I will be adding the advanced metrics down below to show how Meier is better than his counting stats show and how Mitch and Aho are very close.

As a conclusion to this; I will say that I will be able to live with a deal that surpasses his intrinsic value as long as it comes with term. I would be okay with up to 7@10.5aav based on his age and the fact that he should continue to get better. I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell6$9,000,000
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
TOR
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
EDM
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,959,699$0$0$540,301
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$9,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, C
UFA - 5
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Moore, Trevor
$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Shore, Nick
$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TOR
Ceci, Cody
$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Hutchinson, Michael
$700,000
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Schmaltz, Jordan
$700,000
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
$775,000
LW, RW, C
RFA - 2
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
$5,250,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Aug 17 at 5:56
#101
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
*Anyone looks like a 10 million dollar player showing their best plays and putting music over it*
For example
https://youtu.be/XuBkLMyNa3M


@Random2152

You didn’t say that?
Aug 17 at 5:57
#102
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
IM NOT SAYING HE IS CROSBY FOR ****S SAKE


Tavares isn’t better than Malkin in his prime either.
Aug 17 at 5:57
#103
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,001
Likes: 803
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
@Random2152

You didn’t say that?


I said looking at highlights doesn't tell you everything about a player
Random2152 liked this.
Aug 17 at 5:58
#104
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
@Random2152

You didn’t say that?


That isn't saying that anyone could do what marner does lol.
SpaghettiPasta and Trickster liked this.
Aug 17 at 5:59
#105
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Tavares isn’t better than Malkin in his prime either.


Will have to disagree there, but enough about your boner for Malkin. This is a marner thread
SpaghettiPasta, Trickster and oneX liked this.
Aug 17 at 5:59
#106
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,001
Likes: 803
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Tavares isn’t better than Malkin in his prime either.


WHO CARES ABOUT THEIR PRIMES. WE CARE ABOUT RIGHT NOW. TAVARES IS BETTER THAN MALKIN RIGHT NOW. TAVARES IS NOT BETTER THAN CROSBY. NO ONE HAS EVER SAID THAT.
Random2152, Trickster and oneX liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:01
#107
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
I said looking at highlights doesn't tell you everything about a player


Quoting: Random2152
That isn't saying that anyone could do what marner does lol.


You said “anyone.” That includes fringe players too.
Aug 17 at 6:01
#108
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,001
Likes: 803
Quoting: Random2152
Will have to disagree there, but enough about your boner for Malkin. This is a marner thread


Maybe he should change his name to YevginiMalkinGOAT
rootferdukes, Random2152, Trickster and 1 other person liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:02
#109
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,993
Likes: 1,419
Man! Excellent description. But I'm with ya..

It took me two beers to get to this point on this thread. I'm checking out for summer vacation. I'll be back for the start of the season..

Til then, have fun beating the horde back..
Random2152, SpaghettiPasta, oneX and 1 other person liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:03
#110
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
Will have to disagree there, but enough about your boner for Malkin. This is a marner thread


LMAO Tavares is better than peak Malkin? Are you delusional? Malkin at his peak scored 50 goals and 110 points in an era that was far more difficult to score. He won the Art Ross, Hart and Lindsey. Tell me what has Tavares won? And Malkin played on a line with Neal, he didn’t have an elite playmaker like Tavares does in Marner.
Aug 17 at 6:04
#111
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
WHO CARES ABOUT THEIR PRIMES. WE CARE ABOUT RIGHT NOW. TAVARES IS BETTER THAN MALKIN RIGHT NOW. TAVARES IS NOT BETTER THAN CROSBY. NO ONE HAS EVER SAID THAT.


It’s not fair to compare Tavares (who is in his prime) to a player who is 5 years older. We have to compare players when they are at their best, and when they are at their best, Malkin was better. End of discussion.
Aug 17 at 6:04
#112
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
LMAO Tavares is better than peak Malkin? Are you delusional? Malkin at his peak scored 50 goals and 110 points in an era that was far more difficult to score. He won the Art Ross, Hart and Lindsey. Tell me what has Tavares won? And Malkin played on a line with Neal, he didn’t have an elite playmaker like Tavares does in Marner.


To quote Steve dangle
"LOOK AT THE PLAYERS AROUND HIM STUPID!"
Aug 17 at 6:06
#113
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,001
Likes: 803
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
You said “anyone.” That includes fringe players too.


I said: Anyone can look like a player that deserves double digits if you look at their best plays.
I showed a player that doesn't deserve 5 million, but he looks like a superstar. A superstar like Marner has really good plays, that if you see them alone he looks like he deserves more money than is real. If you think I think Marner is a fringe NHLer, you think I think a fringe NHLer is worth 9.5 million.
Random2152 liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:08
#114
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,001
Likes: 803
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
It’s not fair to compare Tavares (who is in his prime) to a player who is 5 years older. We have to compare players when they are at their best, and when they are at their best, Malkin was better. End of discussion.


We care about what players are now. Gretzky got 200 points at his prime. Right now, would you rather have him or Malkin on your team.
Random2152, oneX and Trickster liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:15
#115
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
To quote Steve dangle
"LOOK AT THE PLAYERS AROUND HIM STUPID!"


That narrative just doesn’t work for this discussion. I did not bring up team achievements, I brought up individual. The Leafs are currently a better team than what the Penguins were from 2010-15. Marner is a better player than any linemate Malkin has ever had, and when Malkin played his best, it was during the seasons where Crosby missed significant time due to injury, so he pretty much carried the load. Tavares has definitely had a better team around him in his best individual season compared to Malkin, so what’s the next argument gonna be?
Aug 17 at 6:15
#116
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
We care about what players are now. Gretzky got 200 points at his prime. Right now, would you rather have him or Malkin on your team.


I’d take peak Gretzky over peak Malkin any day.
Aug 17 at 6:17
#117
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,001
Likes: 803
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I’d take peak Gretzky over peak Malkin any day.


RIGHT NOW
Aug 17 at 6:17
#118
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
We care about what players are now. Gretzky got 200 points at his prime. Right now, would you rather have him or Malkin on your team.


But that’s not the point. @Random2152 said that Tavares is better than Malkin at his peak. That is very different than saying Tavares is better than Malkin right now. Yet he can’t even find any valid points to use as proof.
Aug 17 at 6:19
#119
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,001
Likes: 803
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
But that’s not the point. @Random2152 said that Tavares is better than Malkin at his peak. That is very different than saying Tavares is better than Malkin right now. Yet he can’t even find any valid points to use as proof.


STFU who cares who was better we are talking about Marner
Trickster liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:22
#120
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
That narrative just doesn’t work for this discussion. I did not bring up team achievements, I brought up individual. The Leafs are currently a better team than what the Penguins were from 2010-15. Marner is a better player than any linemate Malkin has ever had, and when Malkin played his best, it was during the seasons where Crosby missed significant time due to injury, so he pretty much carried the load. Tavares has definitely had a better team around him in his best individual season compared to Malkin, so what’s the next argument gonna be?


JT is not McDavid. You have to have competent players playing around you to win the art ross and get over 100 points. Hell even McDavid has Draisaitl.
Trickster liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:23
#121
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
STFU who cares who was better we are talking about Marner


The issue when people talk about Marner is that they regard him as someone who gets carried by Tavares the same way Crosby carries Guentzel. That’s the main problem in this narrative.
Aug 17 at 6:25
#122
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
But that’s not the point. @Random2152 said that Tavares is better than Malkin at his peak. That is very different than saying Tavares is better than Malkin right now. Yet he can’t even find any valid points to use as proof.


I mean aside from the fact that JT has increased his wingers ability more than Malkin?
Tell me, what years do you consider "peak Malkin"?
I have something for you going back to 07-08 (although JT wasnt there yet.)
Aug 17 at 6:25
#123
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
JT is not McDavid. You have to have competent players playing around you to win the art ross and get over 100 points. Hell even McDavid has Draisaitl.


Do you know who Evgeni Malkin had when he won the scoring title, MVP and most outstanding player award? Freaking James Neal! Not saying he is a bad player, but he’s not Leon Draisaitl or even Mitch Marner. Surely you can agree on this.
Aug 17 at 6:25
#124
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
The issue when people talk about Marner is that they regard him as someone who gets carried by Tavares the same way Crosby carries Guentzel. That’s the main problem in this narrative.


That is actually fairly accurate. Not to the same degree but in general yes; that is what is happening.
Aug 17 at 6:25
#125
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,001
Likes: 803
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
The issue when people talk about Marner is that they regard him as someone who gets carried by Tavares the same way Crosby carries Guentzel. That’s the main problem in this narrative.


OKAY. Tell me what you think Marner is worth. Not what he will make. What he is worth.
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Remove Option
Submit Poll