Forums/Armchair-GM

Ranking the best forward from each team

Created by: deys3232
Initial Creation Date: Jul 14, 2020
Published: Jul 14, 2020 at 2:22
Team: 2019-20 Custom Team
Team Explanation
THIS IS ONLY BASED ON THE 2019-2020 SEASON!! NOT ANY PREVIOUS HISTORY OR FUTURE PROJECTIONS!!
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
31$999,999,999$173,587,967$0$12,100,000$826,412,032
Left WingCenterRight Wing
NYR
Panarin, Artemi
$11,642,857
LW
NMC
UFA - 7
COL
MacKinnon, Nathan
$6,300,000
C, RW
UFA - 4
EDM
McDavid, Connor
$12,500,000
C
UFA - 7
TBL
Kucherov, Nikita
$9,500,000
RW
UFA - 8
VGK
Stone, Mark
$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 8
BOS
Marchand, Brad
$6,125,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
VAN
Pettersson, Elias
$925,000
C
RFA - 2
BUF
Eichel, Jack
$10,000,000
C
UFA - 7
PHI
Couturier, Sean
$4,333,333
C
UFA - 3
FLA
Huberdeau, Jonathan
$5,900,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 4
STL
O'Reilly, Ryan
$7,500,000
C
UFA - 4
PIT
Guentzel, Jake
$6,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
WPG
Ehlers, Nikolaj
$6,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 6
DET
Mantha, Anthony
$3,300,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
SJS
Hertl, Tomas
$5,625,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
CAR
Svechnikov, Andrei
$925,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
CBJ
Bjorkstrand, Oliver
$2,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
MTL
Gallagher, Brendan
$3,750,000
RW
UFA - 2
CGY
Tkachuk, Matthew
$7,000,000
LW, RW
RFA - 3
NYI
Barzal, Mathew
$863,333
C
RFA - 1
NJD
Hischier, Nico
$925,000
C
UFA - 1
LAK
Kopitar, Anze
$10,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 5
DAL
Seguin, Tyler
$9,850,000
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 8
OTT
Tkachuk, Brady
$925,000
LW, C
UFA - 2
NSH
Forsberg, Filip
$6,000,000
LW
UFA - 3
ANA
Rakell, Rickard
$3,789,444
RW, LW
UFA - 3
CHI
Kubalik, Dominik
$925,000
LW
RFA - 1
WSH
Vrána, Jakub
$3,350,000
LW
UFA - 2
MIN
Fiala, Kevin
$3,000,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
ARI
Hall, Taylor
$3,000,000
LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender

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Jul 14, 2020 at 5:24
#101
Thread Starter
I use charts
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 2,675
Likes: 827
Quoting: mhockey91
I don’t follow these models nor do I want to. Every stat model has a standard deviation of error. Based on real life results these models clearly have a high one


If you dont follow the models, how can you call them skewed???
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:25
#102
Emotionally in 2018
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 8,683
Likes: 2,907
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the team that wins a hockey game is the one with more goals. Not whoever wins the Corsi battle or has better zone entry %. Points are literally goals and setting up goals. Which is what wins you games.

There's certainly more to a player than just their point totals, but at the end of the day, these underlying statistics are often times heavily affected by things other than the individual player. Linemates, opposition, puck luck, team structure, etc. all play a huge factor in what these numbers look like. While these also apply for point totals, nobody is going to say that Val Nichushkin had even a comparable year to Draisaitl, because Draisaitl's offense is so elite.
mhockey91 and phillyjabroni liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:26
#103
Charts are good
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 599
Likes: 236
Quoting: mhockey91
I don’t follow these models nor do I want to. Every stat model has a standard deviation of error. Based on real life results these models clearly have a high one


Ok then f*ck off. There's literally no point in talking to you if you don't have an interest in the topic at hand.
deys3232 and Zetna liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:26
#104
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 15,869
Likes: 6,892
Quoting: krakowitz
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the team that wins a hockey game is the one with more goals. Not whoever wins the Corsi battle or has better zone entry %. Points are literally goals and setting up goals. Which is what wins you games.

There's certainly more to a player than just their point totals, but at the end of the day, these underlying statistics are often times heavily affected by things other than the individual player. Linemates, opposition, puck luck, team structure, etc. all play a huge factor in what these numbers look like. While these also apply for point totals, nobody is going to say that Val Nichushkin had even a comparable year to Draisaitl, because Draisaitl's offense is so elite.


KRAK is king. cheers Thanks for the support buddy. I’m just gonna drop this whole argument because it’s going in circles
krakowitz liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:29
#105
Charts are good
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 599
Likes: 236
Quoting: krakowitz
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the team that wins a hockey game is the one with more goals. Not whoever wins the Corsi battle or has better zone entry %. Points are literally goals and setting up goals. Which is what wins you games.

There's certainly more to a player than just their point totals, but at the end of the day, these underlying statistics are often times heavily affected by things other than the individual player. Linemates, opposition, puck luck, team structure, etc. all play a huge factor in what these numbers look like. While these also apply for point totals, nobody is going to say that Val Nichushkin had even a comparable year to Draisaitl, because Draisaitl's offense is so elite.


His offense wasn't even that good. He strongly outperformed his xGF/60 and his CF/60 impact was negative. He also had a sh% of 19.7 and oiSH% of 14.4 which is far above average.
deys3232 liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:29
#106
Charts are good
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 599
Likes: 236
Quoting: mhockey91
KRAK is king. cheers Thanks for the support buddy. I’m just gonna drop this whole argument because it’s going in circles


Still waiting for you to explain how the stats are skewed.
deys3232 liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:32
#107
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,034
Likes: 2,631
Quoting: krakowitz
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the team that wins a hockey game is the one with more goals. Not whoever wins the Corsi battle or has better zone entry %. Points are literally goals and setting up goals. Which is what wins you games.

There's certainly more to a player than just their point totals, but at the end of the day, these underlying statistics are often times heavily affected by things other than the individual player. Linemates, opposition, puck luck, team structure, etc. all play a huge factor in what these numbers look like. While these also apply for point totals, nobody is going to say that Val Nichushkin had even a comparable year to Draisaitl, because Draisaitl's offense is so elite.


A. Points/goals are at most 1/2 the game, you also have to prevent goals...

B. If you're consistently on the ice for lots of goals for and none against (Nuke) but don't get a ton of points, I'd still think you're generally impacting the game in a positive way
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Jul 14, 2020 at 5:35
#108
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 15,869
Likes: 6,892
Quoting: Dpellz90
Still waiting for you to explain how the stats are skewed.


I already did but you told me to F off so I’m dropping it. I literally wrote about the standard deviation of error and how no model is 100% perfect. These models are no exception.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:37
#109
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 15,869
Likes: 6,892
Quoting: Dan10900
There is a variance yes, but for the most part it doesn't really change much, they're is roughly a 100% chance that a guy like Nuke is a positive defensive player (and like 75% that he's 2 STD's above average) and probably 85% he's above average overall... Drai is about the same, 20% chance at being positive defensively 85% offensively, but does have a larger range


Yes but no one is denying that Drai is weak defensively and Nichuskin is solid in his own end. The issue is, the weighting of the data. Drai’s offensive output more than makes up for his weak defence. I don’t know how the models weigh the data but to me there’s an issue when a player like Nichuskin who doesn’t generate a whole lot of offence is viewed higher than Drai who is a generating machine.
krakowitz liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:38
#110
Charts are good
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 599
Likes: 236
Quoting: mhockey91
I already did but you told me to F off so I’m dropping it. I literally wrote about the standard deviation of error and how no model is 100% perfect. These models are no exception.


All you said was the equivalent of "blue bar make me cry"
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Jul 14, 2020 at 5:39
#111
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,034
Likes: 2,631
Quoting: mhockey91
I already did but you told me to F off so I’m dropping it. I literally wrote about the standard deviation of error and how no model is 100% perfect. These models are no exception.


And i said that the variance in most of these models isn't that big, and in almost every case the average/mean (which I'd assume EW CH and MP use) is very close to roughly 90% of the of the "possible" outcomes
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:40
#112
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 15,869
Likes: 6,892
Quoting: Dpellz90
All you said was the equivalent of "blue bar make me cry"


Just add me to your ignore list then. I’m done having this conversation with you and Chair guy. You are not going to change your opinion and I am not going to change mine.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:40
#113
Charts are good
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 599
Likes: 236
Quoting: mhockey91
Yes but no one is denying that Drai is weak defensively and Nichuskin is solid in his own end. The issue is, the weighting of the data. Drai’s offensive output more than makes up for his weak defence. I don’t know how the models weigh the data but to me there’s an issue when a player like Nichuskin who doesn’t generate a whole lot of offence is viewed higher than Drai who is a generating machine.


Yea it's almost like Draisaitl isn't as good as you think he is.
Zetna liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:41
#114
Emotionally in 2018
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 8,683
Likes: 2,907
Quoting: Dpellz90
His offense wasn't even that good. He strongly outperformed his xGF/60 and his CF/60 impact was negative. He also had a sh% of 19.7 and oiSH% of 14.4 which is far above average.


This question isn't meant to be demeaning in any way, but it might come off that way because tone is tough to interpret through text, but how much of him did you actually watch? What you see isn't what the numbers will show, and the game isn't won on a spreadsheet or a graph.

For starters, Corsi is incredibly pointless to me. This is counting shot attempts against a player simply because he was on the ice when it happened. It could've be shots from the point, transitions against him, shots from the other side of the ice, mistakes from teammates, and they all count against him. There are way too many factors out of one individual player's control that contribute to shot attempts for that stat to be taken seriously, in my opinion. xGF is better than Corsi no doubt, but to me it still has a lot of the same issues. Neither stat is something I find worth noting in a player unless it's extremely good or bad (>65% or <35%).

Yes, his shooting percentage was excellent. Nobody is saying that he's going to continue scoring at that rate forever, but this is a guy who scored 50 goals last year. So many people love to just point at a high SH% to explain a goal total, but are we just not going to consider that he's an incredibly accurate shooter, especially from dangerous areas? When I watch him play, I see a player who is able to generate a lot of high quality and dangerous chances for his team, and he capitalizes on it. The goal scoring instincts that players have don't show up in these numbers, but everyone who has played the game past the age of 14 knows that it exists.
mhockey91 liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:42
#115
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 15,869
Likes: 6,892
Quoting: Dpellz90
Yea it's almost like Draisaitl isn't as good as you think he is.


You say points don’t matter but scoring goals and generating offence is the most important role of a forward. Over the last 2 season Drai has hit 100 points twice. That isn’t a fluke. He is an elite offensive creator who yeah probably does suck defensively but that’s not his role.
Capitalfail67 liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:43
#116
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,034
Likes: 2,631
Quoting: mhockey91
Yes but no one is denying that Drai is weak defensively and Nichuskin is solid in his own end. The issue is, the weighting of the data. Drai’s offensive output more than makes up for his weak defence. I don’t know how the models weigh the data but to me there’s an issue when a player like Nichuskin who doesn’t generate a whole lot of offence is viewed higher than Drai who is a generating machine.


Nuke actually generates a lot of offense, 4th best 5v5 GF/60 on the Avs playing largely with offensive dynamos like PEB, Matt Calvert, and Ian Cole and Sam Girard...
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:43
#117
Charts are good
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 599
Likes: 236
Quoting: mhockey91
Just add me to your ignore list then. I’m done having this conversation with you and Chair guy. You are not going to change your opinion and I am not going to change mine.


I'll change my opinion if you show me actual evidence that the models skewed to the point that they purposefully make a player better or worse than they actually are, and correct me if I'm wrong but aren't you the one that said "I don't care what any of you say" with regards to "spreadsheets".
Zetna liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:45
#118
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,034
Likes: 2,631
Quoting: mhockey91
who does suck defensively but that’s not his role.


But that's still part of his overall impact
Zetna liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:46
#119
Charts are good
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 599
Likes: 236
Quoting: krakowitz
This question isn't meant to be demeaning in any way, but it might come off that way because tone is tough to interpret through text, but how much of him did you actually watch? What you see isn't what the numbers will show, and the game isn't won on a spreadsheet or a graph.

For starters, Corsi is incredibly pointless to me. This is counting shot attempts against a player simply because he was on the ice when it happened. It could've be shots from the point, transitions against him, shots from the other side of the ice, mistakes from teammates, and they all count against him. There are way too many factors out of one individual player's control that contribute to shot attempts for that stat to be taken seriously, in my opinion. xGF is better than Corsi no doubt, but to me it still has a lot of the same issues. Neither stat is something I find worth noting in a player unless it's extremely good or bad (>65% or <35%).

Yes, his shooting percentage was excellent. Nobody is saying that he's going to continue scoring at that rate forever, but this is a guy who scored 50 goals last year. So many people love to just point at a high SH% to explain a goal total, but are we just not going to consider that he's an incredibly accurate shooter, especially from dangerous areas? When I watch him play, I see a player who is able to generate a lot of high quality and dangerous chances for his team, and he capitalizes on it. The goal scoring instincts that players have don't show up in these numbers, but everyone who has played the game past the age of 14 knows that it exists.


The eye test is absolutely useless. You cannot objectively evaluate a player using the eye test.

I'm not saying his shooting percentage was excellent, I'm saying it was highly inflated. His shot% last year was even higher than it was this year.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:50
#120
Charts are good
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 599
Likes: 236
Quoting: mhockey91
You say points don’t matter but scoring goals and generating offence is the most important role of a forward. Over the last 2 season Drai has hit 100 points twice. That isn’t a fluke. He is an elite offensive creator who yeah probably does suck defensively but that’s not his role.


Yea that's why stats like xGF and CF impact are important to look at to see who actually generates offense instead of just looking at points and going "big number good"
deys3232 liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:52
#121
Emotionally in 2018
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 8,683
Likes: 2,907
Quoting: Dpellz90
The eye test is absolutely useless. You cannot objectively evaluate a player using the eye test.

I'm not saying his shooting percentage was excellent, I'm saying it was highly inflated. His shot% last year was even higher than it was this year.


You must be a troll. Analytics in hockey are literally trying quantifying the eye test. But there are way too many situations in an individual game, especially over the course of a whole season, where these numbers get skewed by factors out of an individual players' control. You go ahead and take Jake Guentzel, I'll take Sidney Crosby. You take Dominik Kubalik, I'll take Patrick Kane.
mhockey91 liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:55
#122
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,034
Likes: 2,631
Quoting: krakowitz
You must be a troll. Analytics in hockey are literally trying quantifying the eye test. But there are way too many situations in an individual game, especially over the course of a whole season


No, those are micro stats, macro stats measure a players overall impact on the game
Zetna liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 5:56
#123
Emotionally in 2018
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 8,683
Likes: 2,907
Quoting: Dpellz90
Yea that's why stats like xGF and CF impact are important to look at to see who actually generates offense instead of just looking at points and going "big number good"


Nobody should just objectively look at points. It's easy to see with your eyes when someone rides the coattails of their linemates for points (Artem Animisov when he was between Panarin and Kane, Kassian playing with McDavid, etc.) but players that consistently produce offense at high levels regardless of who they play with or against are good players.
mhockey91 liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 6:00
#124
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 15,869
Likes: 6,892
Quoting: krakowitz
You must be a troll. Analytics in hockey are literally trying quantifying the eye test. But there are way too many situations in an individual game, especially over the course of a whole season, where these numbers get skewed by factors out of an individual players' control. You go ahead and take Jake Guentzel, I'll take Sidney Crosby. You take Dominik Kubalik, I'll take Patrick Kane.


I just added them to my ignore list bro, not worth the time.
krakowitz liked this.
Jul 14, 2020 at 6:36
#125
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,034
Likes: 2,631
Quoting: mhockey91
I just added them to my ignore list bro, not worth the time.


Imagine blocking people bc they disagree with you 😂😂
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