Kyle Connor - Read Description - CapFriendly

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Kyle Connor - Read Description

Created by: McRanteskog

Team: 2020-21 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 7, 2020

Published: Aug. 7, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

COL best chances of winning a cup are in the next two years:
1) before Makar, Landeskog and Grubauer get paid
2) before MacKinnon/Francouz get paid and Kadri leaves

With that being said, I understand we are all big on Byram and his potential -BUT- seeing as COL best chance to win a cup is in the next two years, the impact Connor provides now, is more valuable to a cup run (in these two years) than having Byram will be.

Byram year 1 will maybe play third pair minutes. Year 2 he will (at best) be playing second pair minutes. Connor on the other hand fills out the top 6F, is an elite goal scorer and provides a MAJOR impact in the next two critical cup contending years.

I get that some COL fans will say "Byram will be a future elite top pairing D man", but he wont be "elite" status for maybe 4 years, well past this optimal cup window in the next two years (while Makar and MacKinnon are still cheap).

Core 4 on D moving forward become Makar/Girard/Graves/Timmins

**moving Compher is to save cap space (hence keeping Jost instead)

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Burakovsky, André	3	$4,750,000
Graves, Ryan	2	$2,750,000
Nichushkin, Valeri	2	$2,750,000
Zadorov, Nikita	3	$3,500,000
Jost, Tyson	2	$1,750,000

Trades

COL

Connor, Kyle

WPG

Byram, Bowen

COL

2020 2nd round pick (DAL)
2020 2nd round pick (NYI)

Additional Details:

no specific team here, just two 2nds

OTT

Compher, J.T.

Additional Details:

no specific team here, just two 2nds

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$81,500,000	$79,266,785	$0	$2,925,000	$2,233,215

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Connor, Kyle $7,142,857$7,142,857 LW UFA - 6	MacKinnon, Nathan $6,300,000$6,300,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Rantanen, Mikko $9,250,000$9,250,000 RW, C UFA - 5
Landeskog, Gabriel $5,571,429$5,571,429 LW, C M-NTC UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Burakovsky, André $4,750,000$4,750,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Nichushkin, Valeri $2,750,000$2,750,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Jost, Tyson $1,750,000$1,750,000 C UFA - 1
Calvert, Matt $2,850,000$2,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Bellemare, Pierre-Édouard $1,800,000$1,800,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Donskoi, Joonas $3,900,000$3,900,000 RW UFA - 3
		Kaut, Martin $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) RW RFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Graves, Ryan $2,750,000$2,750,000 LD UFA - 3	Makar, Cale $880,833$880,833 ($2,500,000$2M) RD UFA - 1	Grubauer, Philipp $3,333,333$3,333,333 G UFA - 1
Girard, Samuel $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 7	Johnson, Erik $6,000,000$6,000,000 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 3	Francouz, Pavel $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 2
Zadorov, Nikita $3,500,000$3,500,000 LD/RD UFA - 1
Cole, Ian $3,450,000$3,450,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Timmins, Conor $925,000$925,000 RD RFA - 1

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:29 a.m.

#26

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,584

Likes: 3,444

Quoting: Windjammer

No thanks. No interest in giving up quality for quantity.

How is it quantity? You get two established youngish players and one of the best prospects in the league. I can see saying no, but calling it quantity doesn't seem accurate.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.

#27

McRanteskog

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Quoting: Windjammer

No thanks. No interest in giving up quality for quantity.

You do math?
Whats proposed is a 2 for 2 trade. How is that a "quantity" trade when the teams involved are moving the same number of pieces lol

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:33 a.m.

#28

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,748

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Quoting: SuckMyAvs

How is it quantity? You get two established youngish players and one of the best prospects in the league. I can see saying no, but calling it quantity doesn't seem accurate.

I guess from the shear fact that it is quantity. You're offering 3 to 4 lower quality players to try and get one higher quality player.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:42 a.m.

#29

McRanteskog

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@coga16 @Richard88 @JeffW @Xqb15
thoughts?

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:45 a.m.

#30

McRanteskog

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Quoting: Windjammer

I guess from the shear fact that it is quantity. You're offering 3 to 4 lower quality players to try and get one higher quality player.

IMO
Byram + 2nd for Kyle Connor isnt that far off.
Theres a need filled on each end, I think WPG needs to restock on D after the departure of Myers, Byfuglien and Trouba. Byram is #1-2 best defensive prospect in the NHL right now

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:48 a.m.

#31

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,584

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Quoting: Windjammer

I guess from the shear fact that it is quantity. You're offering 3 to 4 lower quality players to try and get one higher quality player.

It's not "3 to 4 lower quality players." It's one of the top prospects in the league and two solid and still young roster players. Honestly, I wouldn't do it from Winnipeg perspective, as Connor is too important, but I also don't view it as a bunch of crap for quality. It's not even close to that.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:48 a.m.

#32

DirtyDangle

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Quoting: SuckMyAvs

Agree on all but Jost. I think they can keep him, as he won't be too expensive. And with guys like Bowers, Newhook, Kaut, Kamenev, and O'Connor I don't mind losing the others that much. Really JT and Z will probably be gone anyway, so the losses aren't as great as it may seem on paper.

Bonuses should be kept in mind, but I doubt it will be an issue. It's unlikely they exceed the allowable amount due to guys in the bottom six or on the third pairing, which is where all the rookies would be.

This is how I see things anyway. Obviously there can be room for disagreement, as we don't know for sure what the contracts will be like in any environment, let alone this one.

my mock up is a bit different than yours. i have landy, bura, jost, and gru making a hair more, and makar making a hair less. if i kept jost i'd have to run 13 f / 6d or just a roster of 21 which i don't like. i think jost is gone either was as bednar always gives him the least ice time so you can tell he doesn't trust him. he'll never develop on the 4th line and isn't a fit there style wise anyways.

i'm not too concerned about bonuses but makar could rack some up that would have to be carried over in to the next season. this roster here still needs at least one forward but preferable two so even at league min there's not a lot of room to adsorb any bonuses. it's just a tight fit.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:52 a.m.

#33

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,748

Likes: 7,002

Quoting: McRanteskog

Well you'd be wrong. You're pretty far off. You're not getting a young first line winger on a great contract for a prospect and a pick. An over 30 winger yes. A winger that hasn't even hit his prime, no.

Feel free to look elsewhere if you want to find someone cheaper.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:55 a.m.

#34

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,748

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Quoting: SuckMyAvs

Where did I say it was crap? They're good players. But we all know that Byram didn't progress as well as expected this year and no one is going to trade a young, established, 30 goal scoring winger on a great contract for 3 maybes.

ChiHawk liked this.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:58 a.m.

#35

McRanteskog

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Quoting: Windjammer

My dude, you must be trolling? What makes you think Byram didnt progress well?
Last season he was a 1.06ppg d man and this season 1.04ppg?

What metric or report do you have to support he had a bad year lol

Anus_McLeod liked this.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:59 a.m.

#36

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,748

Likes: 7,002

Quoting: McRanteskog

Just general reports I 've heard on him. But I admit I don't keep up with Avs prospects.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:01 a.m.

#37

McRanteskog

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Quoting: Windjammer

The Hockey Writers - Jan 12/2020 (Byram #1)
https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-top-100-prospects-ranking/

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:01 a.m.

#38

McRanteskog

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Quoting: Windjammer

Just general reports I 've heard on him. But I admit I don't keep up with Avs prospects.

Yeah and it shows

The Hockey Writers - Jan 12/2020 (Byram #1)
https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-top-100-prospects-ranking/

The Hockey News - Mar 2020 (Byram #1)
https://www.e-know.ca/regions/cranbrook/bowen-byram-ranked-top-nhl-prospect-by-thn/

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:07 a.m.

#39

McRanteskog

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Quoting: Windjammer

Just general reports I 've heard on him. But I admit I don't keep up with Avs prospects.

Provide a report

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:13 a.m.

#40

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,584

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Quoting: Windjammer

Just general reports I 've heard on him. But I admit I don't keep up with Avs prospects.

Byram had a fine year. When guys have already been drafted, it's more about working on weaker aspects of their game and prepping to make the jump than improving on their point totals. Byram showed major improvement in his defensive skills in the WJC and took over offensively in the second half of his WHL season. If anything his stock has probably risen.

Xqb15 liked this.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:14 a.m.

#41

Xqb15

Joined: Dec. 2019

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Likes: 1,142

Here’s my general thoughts. 2 way dmen are more valuable than wingers, and the ability to acquire an elite talent on an elc comes along very rarely for a cup contending team like the Avs. My concerns with Connor are he is a shot neutral player with the vast majority of his starts being in the offensive zone. However he is a scorer on a long term contract that is team friendly and Byram hasn’t played a game in the NHL. Ultimately if the Avs were going to do something Byram is their most valuable chip because they do have Makar, Girard and Timmins. I still think they Avs pass because I want to trust their scouting staff and saying they have a #1 dman, who is if that his value doubles in a year.

McRanteskog and Richard88 liked this.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:17 a.m.

#42

McRanteskog

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Quoting: SuckMyAvs

Was also a WHL all-star this year and won gold with Canada at the World Juniors lol

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:37 a.m.

#43

LumberJacques

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 1,040

Likes: 658

Quoting: Windjammer

No, it would need to be a going established 2C or at least top 6 F or top 4D. It would not be all futures.

Quoting: McRanteskog

Makes no sense.
Connor is a first line player and you want an established second liner plus Byram to move him? no chance.
Compher and Donskoi are both low end 2nd liners, higher end third liners

I get his perspective though. I mean they are taking 100% of the risk on this deal and getting only marginal potential upside (meaning chance that Byram becomes much better than Connor).

Worst case scenario for Winnipeg Byram busts and they traded a PPG 1st liner. Worst case for Colorado they traded a 1st pair Dman for a top 6, 30 goal winger on a great contract.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:41 a.m.

#44

McRanteskog

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Quoting: LumberJacques

Realistically getting an established 2C+ Byram is extremely unlikely as top6 C are some of the closest guarded assets any team has.

However I do agree that for the risk involved in trading Connor for a prospect an established point producer or Dman would need to be included.

I get his perspective though. I mean they are taking 100% of the risk on this deal and getting only marginal potential upside (meaning chance that Byram becomes much better than Connor).

Worst case scenario for Winnipeg Byram busts and they traded a PPG 1st liner. Worst case for Colorado they traded a 1st pair Dman for a top 6, 30 goal winger on a great contract.

I agree with most of what you said however I also think some are overlooking the benefit of having Byram in the NHL for 2-3 at ELC cost. Thats a big plus.
Frees up 4-5mil (minimum) to go to UFA and plug in a piece for 2-3 years (ie. seoond line player)

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:48 a.m.

#45

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

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Quoting: LumberJacques

Right. I didn't mean it would necessarily be one this one. I just mean that the only way Connor gets moved is in a deal for a young 2C or young top 4D. A prospect and pick don't cut it.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:53 a.m.

#46

tsyls

Joined: Jun. 2019

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I read all of this, and as a jets fan, my unbiased opinion is that wpg says no, if you look around the league at trades for other wingers you’d see that this just wouldn’t happen. Connor is young, on an unreal deal and will be a perennial 30+ goal scorer. We’re not moving him 1 for 1 for byram, I wouldn’t even accept Byram+1st+Compher for him. The fact is that if Connor or ehlers or Laine is getting moved, the Jets need top quality back to move someone that isn’t asking out, or on the bad side of management or coaching. Now the biased jets fan side of me would say that Byram+Jost+2nd would be fair. Maybe even in favour of Colorado.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:54 a.m.

#47

LumberJacques

Joined: Feb. 2019

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Quoting: McRanteskog

That's true, cap space is good but they have around $15.6M in cap space to play with this offseason with no notable core players needing new deals.

Another thing to take into consideration is the age of their core. They are in a similar situation to Colorado where their core is in their prime or soon to reach it. I think they are more likely to trade prospects for immediate help than the other way around. However I'm not a Jet fan so I could be wrong on that last part.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:55 a.m.

#48

LumberJacques

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 1,040

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Quoting: Windjammer

Right. I didn't mean it would necessarily be one this one. I just mean that the only way Connor gets moved is in a deal for a young 2C or young top 4D. A prospect and pick don't cut it.

Yeah that makes sense.

Windjammer liked this.

Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:56 a.m.

#49

McRanteskog

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Quoting: tsyls

Thanks for the input.
From WPG side, is Newhook more valuable to the Jets than Byram? Adding Jost or Compher is doable (as I already move Compher for picks in this scenario)

Aug. 7, 2020 at 12:00 p.m.

#50

McRanteskog

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Quoting: LumberJacques

Yeah that makes sense.

@Windjammer

But do you not realize how pointless it would be for a team to remove a top 6F in order to bring in a top 6F in Connor? Like 2 steps forward and 1.5 steps back. The net gain makes the process almost pointless. Unless youd find more value in Newhook over Byram?

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Forums/Armchair-GM

Kyle Connor - Read Description

Description

Free Agent Signings

Trades

COL

WPG

COL

OTT

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