Who do you think Donskoi is? He’s not worth a first and Monahan……..

Flames get bent over in all of these

This guys pretty notorious for making really bad acgm's for Calgary

I wouldn't do the islanders trade.

No, not in the Isles trade. Gaudreau as an UFA fetching Wahlstrom a 1st and Mayfield is way to much, saying otherwise is just homerism.

Lol ok, if you think Walstrom will ever be remotely as good as Gaudreau then sure. I highly doubt it though.

Not like you guys wont have the cap space next year to resign Gaudreau

If it comes with a extension sure, the value will be higher. They are very different as players, but have a look at Wahlstroms impact numbers playing in a pretty sheltered role, he was brilliant with a WAR of 84%. Playing with Barzal can make him score 30 goals next year, easily and that’s not biased. I don’t think he will though. I love Gaudreau but as an UFA, I wouldn’t have done that trade.

Here's how I see it, Lou doesnt trade for players he doesnt think he can extend (unless they are depth guys that can be replaced), 2 years in a row Lou gave up pretty big packages for some really solid players, none of those players were Gaudreau level good though. So a package like Wahlstrom + a 1st would have to be the base at least for Gaudreau IMO (again assuming extension since its Lou). Flames wouldnt do that though as it really doesnt help them

Wahlstrom is a solid young player but he's more of a 2nd or 3rd line guy, kinda like Dube for us

I agreed on everything you said until your last sentence haha. No man, Wahlstrom is not a 3rd line guy and don’t compare him to Dillon Dubé please. If you think so, please do some research on Wahlstrom. All good!

What research do you want me to do? Wahlstrom is not an elite player but he's also not bad by any means. He's a better than Dube but not marginally

Simple eyetest. Keep up with the analytic community, which are flawed in some ways, but more accurate than something else when trying do understand players value. Compare Wahlstrom and Dubés player cards at JFresh. I haven’t said he’s an elite player either, but already a very good one. And certainly much better than Dubé.

i mean

I am not sure if I am allowed to post JFresh patreon stuff here, but on his site there are much better comparisons. And more factors and metrics included.
Wahlstrom estimated WAR value: 5,568,000 and 1.4 wins = 84 percent. Dubé at 808,000 and 0.6 based on last year = 52%. Before that Dubé was at -0.3 = 21% percent and -1.2 = 4% in his previous seasons. That is a significant difference, based on a lot of things. Wahlstrom in his rookie season was at an 84 % percent WAR value, Dubé 4% for comparison.

Summarizing their player cards.
Wahlstrom:
Off: 2/5
Def: 5/5
PP: 4/5
PK: 0/5
Goals: 5/5
1st Assists: 1/5
1st Points: 3/5
Finishing: 5/5

Dubé:
Off: 1/5
Def: 1/5
PP: 2/5
PK: 0/5
Goals: 3/5
1st Assists: 3/5
1st Points: 3/5
Finishing: 3/5

I respect jfresh as he generally knows what he's talking about stats wise but he usually gets his info from evolving hockey so those WAR numbers dont really make sense


Im not trying to argue that Dube is better or anything, just he is the most comparable player on Calgary.

It is not based on Patrick Bacons info? No, I get that, but you also said Wahlstrom was marginally better, I dont agree at all, thats it. And numbers back that up, Dubé had an solid season this year, but compared to Wahlstrom much lower WAR and compared to their rookie seasons its night and day - you have to expect some solid development in Wahlstroms game, combined with increased QOT and TOI.

And if you dont believe the stats I previously showed for, feel free to look it up yourself from his Patreon. Because I literally wrote down what his models showed.

No one is arguing Wahlstrom is an elite player right now , but he had a 2nd line impact while playing 4th line minutes with mediocre players. He is on a top line trajectory and it just makes no sense for the isles to trade a player who’s skillset compliments Barzal’s.

I don’t think Wahlstrom will have a better career than Gaudreau but I think there’s a decent chance Wahlstroms 22-26 seasons are better than Gaudreau’s 29-33 seasons, which is why the Islanders wouldn’t make this trade.

Top 5v5 ISCF/60 seasons by a rookie since 2015-16
1. Matthews
2. B.Tkachuk
3. Gurianov
4. Debrincat
5. Vrana
6. Wahlstrom
7. Kubalik
8. Tuch
9. Fiala
10. Guentzel

Gaudreau's playstyle is very similar to Kane, Kane is having career years at ages 30-32 because he doesnt rely on his foot speed like most players who tend to fizzle out with age. I think its a pretty safe bet that Gaudreau still has at least another strong 5 years ahead of him

Patrick Kane last season (age 32 season) was a slightly above average top 6 forward because his offensive play driving fell off a bit and he’s one of the worst defensive forwards in the league. Over the last 3 years he ranks 185th in WAR and 541st xWAR. Obviously he’s still a good player but he’s not elite anymore.

Gaudreau will likely be a top 6 caliber forward in his age 29-33 seasons but it’s definitely not a pretty safe bet that he’ll be more impactful than Wahlstrom in his age 22-26 seasons, plus he’ll be making 9-9.5 mill. In Wahlstroms prime I can see him scoring 30-35 goals with Barzal while being close to 2 SD GF/60 and xGA/60.

This right here is why you dont look at stats alone. Kane was like a top 10 player in the l3ague last year on a team with only him amd DeBrincat. Thank you for proving why stats never tell the full picture

With only him and debrincat? lol I guess you forgot that Pius Suter and Dominik Kubalik were on the team, you know the guys that had more even strength goals last season than Kane.

Kane’s most common linemates at even strength were Debrincat and Suter. That’s pretty good QOT. Kane wasn’t even close to a top 10 player in the league. There’s not really a logical argument to prove he was.

DeBrincat was good but Suter was 100% along for the ride. Did you watch a single Hawks game? My guess is no. Kane and DeBrincat 100% carried that team on their backs

Yup, I have NHL package. Watched at least 15 hawks games last season. Suter was better away from Kane and his isolated impact shows that he was a very strong driver of offense.

You can make the argument that Debrincat carried Kane.

can you though? Kane had more primary points and had 10 more points than DeBrincat this year. Considering DeBrincat was the trigger man and goal scorer its pretty safe to say that Kane was setting DeBrincat up and not the other way around

Kane had 2 more primary points than Debrincat - he also had 177 more minutes of ice time than Debrincat. How do you go from posting RAPM and other metrics from EH and now you’re going strictly on points. Points fail to show the overall impact of a player, I’m sure you know this.

Debrincat + Kane:
41.60 XGF% , 53.57 GF%

Kane without Debrincat
41.78 xGF% , 45.45 GF%

Debrincat without Kane:
49.66 xGF%, 58.33 GF%

Because I said earlier that Stats never show the whole picture, how is this confusing to you. Having access to stats allows me to prove that

Why are you using xGF? That's not a good stat