Quoting: BStinson
Why not 3 seasons? Vrana also played less than 15 minutes a night in those seasons so PPG isn’t all the convincing. I’m not arguing one is better than the other but rather pointing out how your analytics specifically cater to your argument while showing complete bias.
Mostly chose 2 years because that’s how long miller has been in Van.
What Eli is suggesting (correct me if I’m wrong here Eli) is that Vrana will have a similar breakout to Detroit that miller had with Vancouver, but it will be so drastic that Miller would not be a comparable or replacement for Vrana.
My argument is that it is unlikely we see Vrana meet miller’s scoring rates he has had over the past 2 season (including playoffs) since Vrana has not scored at that rate on the past. Having a leap of that amount is unlikely imo. I know miller just had it happen, but that’s the exception not the rule
Quoting: Eli
Haha. Thank you for catching my typo. The numbers I gave were for the last three seasons. Over just the last two seasons, you have to drop the minimum games played to 80 to get Hertl to show up. Then Vrana's 8th in the league, Miller is 40th, and Hertl is 45th. I'm sure there are stats you can find that show Miller is the greatest ever, but what I remember seeing when other Caps fans wanted to trade Vrana and a 1st for him last year was that Vrana had more even strength points over recent seasons, and since the Caps didn't seem to have a spot open on their power play, I thought they should keep Vrana. A team that needs a power play catalyst might reach the opposite conclusion, though. Points/game can be all you need, if that's what your team is low on. But last year's Caps, I thought, needed Vrana's even strength production in a middle six role.
http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=scoringRates&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20202021&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,80&sort=pointsPer605v5,goalsPer605v5&page=0&pageSize=50
Fair point with the 5v5 scoring. I wonder if vrana’s 17% shooting percentage 5v5 juices his numbers a bit (his career average is 13.7).
also, just because he produced 5v5 in a reduced role does not mean he will continue the same scoring once in an even greater role. Ice time goes up but so does the talent he’s up against.
I guess we can agree to disagree here. I think miller and hertl are better, wouldn’t trade either of them one for one for Vrana.