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Prospect Discussion Thread

Dec. 16, 2021 at 11:11 a.m.
#576
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I would like to present the first group of tier changes to evaluate:

Owen Power B to A: Obviously Power has elite potential, I'd be surprised if that change doesn't happen
Protas D to B (as proposed by capsfan2121) or C ( as proposed by NoVa Spartan): I'd side with Protas to C, he has top 6 potential but doesn't look like a 1st liner
Brent Johnson B to C and Vincent Iorio D to C: I had both of them as top 4 potentials in my draft rankings, we'll see your thoughts on them


That is fair
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 11:13 a.m.
#577
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
To say a players floor is 2C is pretty bold. Look at the sabres. Only 1 player with a 2C floor IMO and that's Cozens. I think Pinto is in the more Mittelstadt, Thompson, Asplund group. But I haven't watched a lot of him so I'll go with your word


Pinto has an NHL body, High IQ and is elite defensively. That alone makes him at the very least an elite 3C but he will be much better than that because he can produce offence
Dec. 16, 2021 at 11:17 a.m.
#578
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I would like to present the first group of tier changes to evaluate:

Owen Power B to A: Obviously Power has elite potential, I'd be surprised if that change doesn't happen
Protas D to B (as proposed by capsfan2121) or C ( as proposed by NoVa Spartan): I'd side with Protas to C, he has top 6 potential but doesn't look like a 1st liner
Brent Johnson B to C and Vincent Iorio D to C: I had both of them as top 4 potentials in my draft rankings, we'll see your thoughts on them


I like all three of those changes. (of course most of them were my own proposals)

Power is definitely elite, I don't think there is a big question there.

I think Protas to C is realistic for him, I have him as a bit of a low C rating, but I think he is still on a path to be a top 6 forward.

I have Johnson and Iorio both as 2nd pairing RD, I like them both a lot but I don't think either are good enough to constitute a B rating. I feel like one of them will likely be forced onto the top line at some point, but I don't think its a realistic expectation.
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 1:40 p.m.
#579
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So at the bottom were my thoughts on some initial changes (Sens prospects in the 1st, lots of general thoughts in the 2nd), but the biggest thing I wanted to discuss before we really get going on this is the tiers (and my comments below might be outdated if we change the tiers lol). Right now we have A Tier as elite prospects, of which there are maybe 5 in the world, and EE Tier as the guys that aren’t likely to ever play in the NHL. It just seems really cramped to try and fit every relevant prospect into 3 tiers between those two extremes. Since we’re doing our own thing and not beholden to anyone else’s standards (we’re just using it as a base to get all the names in there), I’d propose we use the following tiers, so we get 4 tiers to group guys into while still recognizing the superstars as separate:

S Tier: The elite of the elite. Probably only 5 of them in the world, maybe less (basically the current A Tier). Left off of most pages because most teams don’t have them. This is your #1 D, superstar top liner type of player.
A Tier: Projected high end players, very likely to be first line or top pair guys. Projected elite starting goalies.
B Tier: Projected top six forward, likely to be seen on a scoring line when they make it. Projected top four defensemen. Projected starting/1A goalie.
C Tier: Projected middle six guys, might not have the offense to hang in the top six, but will still be useful NHLers for other reasons, such as defense, speed, etc. Projected 4-5-6 defensemen, likely to get a full time NHL spot but not necessarily be a major contributor. Goalies with 1B upside.
D Tier: Projected bottom six players, 6-7 defensemen (not necessarily full time, but still on the roster), and goalies with backup/solid #3 potential.
EE Tier: Everyone else.

I think this gives us 4 pretty distinct tiers for grouping the bulk of relevant prospects. 3 just seems too cramped, and either doesn’t differentiate between good vs. great, or doesn’t differentiate between likely to make it vs. long shot like 4 tiers does (current C Tier seems especially crowded, having guys like Cam York and Tristan Broz in the same tier lol).

Quoting: Alfie11
For Sens prospects, I have a few proposals:

Sanderson B-->A
I legitimately think he's the best defenseman outside of the NHL right now, right up there with Power, and he's putting up crazy numbers on a significantly less stacked team. He's always been elite defensively, and this year he's showing that there's an element of offense to his game that makes him the complete package (his points per game in college both last year and this year are better than Makar's points per game in his DY+1/2 years). He's got elite skating, he's got the size, he's got the physicality, and from what I've seen (mostly last year's WJC) he very rarely makes mistakes and knows exactly when to step into the play (for example, in the gold medal game last year, he stepped up into the play and hit I believe Cozens, and that directly led to the USA's 2nd goal). This WJC will be very interesting, him vs. Power for best D outside the NHL is an underrated storyline imo, and I really think one of them is coming out with the best D of the tournament (all respect to Topi Niemela but I think he's #3, maybe he continues to improve and makes that conversation a 3-way storyline though, he'll definitely have the opportunity to step up on a Finnish team that just lost their 1C).

Pinto-->B or off the list
He's an NHLer now. If you want to keep him on the list though, he should be B Tier.
19-20: NCHC Rookie of the Year, led USA in scoring at the 2020 WJC
20-21: Top 3 in Hobey Baker voting, NCHC Player of the Year, NCHC Forward of the Year, NCHC Defensive Forward of the Year, Western Conference First Team all-conference, Western Conference regular season scoring leader
If those accolades don't convince you I don't know what will lol. With the chemistry shown by the Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson line, he's poised to be on a line with Stutzle long term, and I think that line is going to be our long term 1st line (Stutzle, Pinto, and literally whoever we draft in 2022, assuming it's a forward in the top 12, which is a pretty safe bet).

JBD and Thomson C-->B
I think both guys easily have top 4 upside. JBD has had success at every level (WJC gold as the ice team leader for Canada at the 2020 WJC, NCHC Defensive Defenseman of the Year last year, etc.), he's just a rock defensively, and masters every level before moving on. He's been pegged as the long term potential partner for Chabot for years and has done nothing to show that he won't eventually get there (maybe 1 more year in the AHL, 1 year on the 3rd pair, then he could step into the top 4 by 24-25, seems like a pretty reasonable projection with the potential to get there quicker). Thomson looked poor in Finland, but has really bounced back on track in his development in North America. He's been really good in the AHL, and has looked pretty good filling in at the NHL level as well (I believe he played 22 minutes in his first game lol). It's pretty reasonable to expect him to take a 2nd pair role in the next couple years. Future top 4 of Chabot-JBD / Sanderson-Thomson is entirely possible.

Guenette, Roger, Kastelic, Crookshank, Mandolese, Reinhardt EE-->D
Guenette and Roger I think both have the upside of being a 3RD. Crookshank has been hurut this year but he was near point-per-game as an AHL rookie last year, he's played himself up into fringe NHLer one day status. Kastelic fits the mold of a 4C perfectly and has been solid in the AHL, he'll probably be a fringe lineup guy in a couple years. Reinhardt is kinda in the same boat, plus I believe he had an impressive training camp this year so he has that going for him. Mandolese was QMJHL Goalie of the Year in 2020 and has been solid in the AHL this year for a middling Belleville team, he could probably be an NHL backup in like 2-3 years.

Engstrand D-->EE
Drafted as a double overager in the 5th round in 2020 and then hasn't been impressive in the SHL. Maybe he succeeds if he comes over to the AHL, but for now I don't think he really has an NHL future, he's just big but without even being physical.

If you want to move other guys down you could maybe bump Latimer from D to EE, he was fairly mediocre on Edmonton, but he does have 6 points in 4 games for Prince Albert after going the other way in the Guhle trade, so maybe opportunity was the only issue, he's one to keep an eye on at least. Johansson is point per game in the Swedish U20 league through 14 games but pointless in 12 SHL games so take that how you will. Probably another case of reserving judgment for now given he's only 18. He needs more play time. If the Sens really believe in him, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to bring him over to play in the AHL next year, and develop him under Troy Mann's watchful eye.

Quoting: Alfie11

Also from a cursory glance, Eklund and Power should be A tier, probably McTavish, Guenther, and Seider/Byram/Raymond (if they still count) as well. I'm not sure if we're defining A tier as legitimate superstars or very likely top line/pair guys, if it's the second you could bump up Caufield and Edvinsson. I'd move Wallstedt down as well, I don't really think any goalie should be A tier, especially not in the year just after getting drafted, and being ranked above literally all 19 guys selected ahead of him, including another goalie. A few C tier prospects should be bumped up to B tier (Neighbours, Bordeleau, Pinto although I don't think he should count at all anymore tbh, Perreault, Lucius, Heinola). Several B tier prospects should be moved down (for example Ceulemans [could go either way on him though tbh], Khusnutdinov, Primeau, Stankoven, and Gunler). And Krebs is listed under Vegas still lol
Dec. 16, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.
#580
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Quoting: Alfie11
So at the bottom were my thoughts on some initial changes (Sens prospects in the 1st, lots of general thoughts in the 2nd), but the biggest thing I wanted to discuss before we really get going on this is the tiers (and my comments below might be outdated if we change the tiers lol). Right now we have A Tier as elite prospects, of which there are maybe 5 in the world, and EE Tier as the guys that aren’t likely to ever play in the NHL. It just seems really cramped to try and fit every relevant prospect into 3 tiers between those two extremes. Since we’re doing our own thing and not beholden to anyone else’s standards (we’re just using it as a base to get all the names in there), I’d propose we use the following tiers, so we get 4 tiers to group guys into while still recognizing the superstars as separate:

S Tier: The elite of the elite. Probably only 5 of them in the world, maybe less (basically the current A Tier). Left off of most pages because most teams don’t have them. This is your #1 D, superstar top liner type of player.
A Tier: Projected high end players, very likely to be first line or top pair guys. Projected elite starting goalies.
B Tier: Projected top six forward, likely to be seen on a scoring line when they make it. Projected top four defensemen. Projected starting/1A goalie.
C Tier: Projected middle six guys, might not have the offense to hang in the top six, but will still be useful NHLers for other reasons, such as defense, speed, etc. Projected 4-5-6 defensemen, likely to get a full time NHL spot but not necessarily be a major contributor. Goalies with 1B upside.
D Tier: Projected bottom six players, 6-7 defensemen (not necessarily full time, but still on the roster), and goalies with backup/solid #3 potential.
EE Tier: Everyone else.

I think this gives us 4 pretty distinct tiers for grouping the bulk of relevant prospects. 3 just seems too cramped, and either doesn’t differentiate between good vs. great, or doesn’t differentiate between likely to make it vs. long shot like 4 tiers does (current C Tier seems especially crowded, having guys like Cam York and Tristan Broz in the same tier lol).


So, you suggest we add a tier between C and D technically
Tier 1: Elite potential players
Tier 2: top liners and good starter but not elite goalies
Tier 3: 2nd liners, top 4 d's and starters
Tier 4: middle 6, bottom 4 and fringe starters
Tier 5: bottom 6, 3rd pair and backups
Tier 6: will most likely never be an NHLer

Also to your comment of some tiers have no one and some are crowded, i expect that to change once all fanbases give their opinions on their team's prospect pyramid
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 2:27 p.m.
#581
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
So, you suggest we add a tier between C and D technically
Tier 1: Elite potential players
Tier 2: top liners and good starter but not elite goalies
Tier 3: 2nd liners, top 4 d's and starters
Tier 4: middle 6, bottom 4 and fringe starters
Tier 5: bottom 6, 3rd pair and backups
Tier 6: will most likely never be an NHLer

Also to your comment of some tiers have no one and some are crowded, i expect that to change once all fanbases give their opinions on their team's prospect pyramid

Yeah exactly (except B Tier or Tier 2 is elite goalies, C Tier or Tier 3 is starters). And I don’t think it’s a tier between C and D, it’s more like adding a tier above the current C Tier, because right now we jump from bona fide top line guys (which currently is, and should be kept, pretty exclusive) to middle six guys, and there’s a pretty notable difference between a guy that projects as a really good 2nd liner, can maybe play on the top line as the 3rd guy vs. a guy that is likely to be a 3rd line shutdown guy (like in the NHL for example it would be like having William Nylander and Nick Paul in the same tier, which should be considered kinda weird for obvious reasons).
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 2:33 p.m.
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Quoting: Alfie11
Yeah exactly (except B Tier or Tier 2 is elite goalies, C Tier or Tier 3 is starters). And I don’t think it’s a tier between C and D, it’s more like adding a tier above the current C Tier, because right now we jump from bona fide top line guys (which currently is, and should be kept, pretty exclusive) to middle six guys, and there’s a pretty notable difference between a guy that projects as a really good 2nd liner, can maybe play on the top line as the 3rd guy vs. a guy that is likely to be a 3rd line shutdown guy (like in the NHL for example it would be like having William Nylander and Nick Paul in the same tier, which should be considered kinda weird for obvious reasons).


Yeah, the list we based this on had really loose tiers, I think these proposed tiers makes sense, this way, we really have strict tiers and it includes everything
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 2:39 p.m.
#583
Ovchinnikov 137
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Cushman is really dialed to Leafs prospects. A must read for my fellow Leaf fans.
Dec. 16, 2021 at 2:39 p.m.
#584
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
Yeah, the list we based this on had really loose tiers, I think these proposed tiers makes sense, this way, we really have strict tiers and it includes everything


What team has the best prospect pool
Dec. 16, 2021 at 2:44 p.m.
#585
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Quoting: capsfan2121
What team has the best prospect pool


Who has the best is always very subjective. My favorites in NO particular order:
CAR
MIN
CGY
EDM
ANA
and TOR obviously

EDIT
and CLB
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 2:55 p.m.
#586
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Quoting: capsfan2121
What team has the best prospect pool

Buffalo and Ottawa are probably the top 2 right now as they both have high end prospects and a lot of depth, with Carolina a solid 3rd (they have the best depth but only Jarvis for a high end prospect). Minnesota is also pretty good.
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:08 p.m.
#587
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
Who has the best is always very subjective. My favorites in NO particular order:
CAR
MIN
CGY
EDM
ANA
and TOR obviously

EDIT
and CLB


Buffalo?
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:09 p.m.
#588
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Quoting: capsfan2121
What team has the best prospect pool


Biased by I think Buffalo.
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:09 p.m.
#589
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Quoting: capsfan2121
That is fair


Can I petition for Quinn as an A?
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:12 p.m.
#590
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Can I petition for Quinn as an A?


I think Jack Quinn has the potential to be a 1st liner but not elite so i think B is the perfect spot for him, that's could be an interesting discussion though
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:19 p.m.
#591
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I think Jack Quinn has the potential to be a 1st liner but not elite so i think B is the perfect spot for him, that's could be an interesting discussion though


I think Elite, like a Debrincat+Stone. Take some aspects of both. He's a great defensive player with a tremendous scoring touch, at 6' is a good size as well. Leading the AHL for a bit before getting sick. He's 3rd for active players now in scoring, #1 in active PPG player over 5 games. He's also a rookie in that league, he scored 50 goals his last juniors season on top of all of that. Who would be a top line RW vs a Elite RW..?
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:22 p.m.
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
I think Elite, like a Debrincat+Stone. Take some aspects of both. He's a great defensive player with a tremendous scoring touch, at 6' is a good size as well. Leading the AHL for a bit before getting sick. He's 3rd for active players now in scoring, #1 in active PPG player over 5 games. He's also a rookie in that league, he scored 50 goals his last juniors season on top of all of that. Who would be a top line RW vs a Elite RW..?


I think guys like Mason McTavish, Fabian Lysell are players I'd put as 1st liners but not elite potential
Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:31 p.m.
#593
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I think guys like Mason McTavish, Fabian Lysell are players I'd put as 1st liners but not elite potential


Ok, I'd put Quinn over both of them...what about current NHLers, that's more what I was thinking. Like Ollofson is PPG but first line while Marner is Elite
Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:36 p.m.
#594
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Buffalo?


I like: Power, Quinn, Krebs, Peterka, Levi, Portillo, Samuelsson, Johnson, Laaksonen

Boom or bust: Rosen, Poltapov, Kisakov, Novikov

Could provide some sneaky good value: Rousek, Nadeau, Bloom, Konecny, Cederqvist

Just not my fav
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:37 p.m.
#595
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
I like: Power, Quinn, Krebs, Peterka, Levi, Portillo, Samuelsson, Johnson, Laaksonen

Boom or bust: Rosen, Poltapov, Kisakov, Novikov

Could provide some sneaky good value: Rousek, Nadeau, Bloom, Konecny, Cederqvist

Just not my fav


Lots better than most teams, better than all IMO ... But prospects are just preferences some times.
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:41 p.m.
#596
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Lots better than most teams, better than all IMO ... But prospects are just preferences some times.


FGvhwFzUUAMwxL5?format=png&name=small

It's an absolute crap shoot.
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 3:46 p.m.
#597
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
FGvhwFzUUAMwxL5?format=png&name=small

It's an absolute crap shoot.


Higher chance of getting a star from 21-30 than 11-20...lmao
Dec. 16, 2021 at 4:29 p.m.
#598
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I think guys like Mason McTavish, Fabian Lysell are players I'd put as 1st liners but not elite potential

Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Ok, I'd put Quinn over both of them...what about current NHLers, that's more what I was thinking. Like Ollofson is PPG but first line while Marner is Elite

To start, McTavish>Quinn>>Lysell. I think the argument about Quinn is whether you think of him as a guy like Nylander or Boeser, or a guy like Palat or Eberle. He’s right on that edge of A Tier and B Tier (by the new tiers I suggested). He’ll be a top 6 RW for sure, and likely end up on the top line by virtue of being better than Peterka and Tuch, but the question becomes whether he’s there because he’s a legitimate top line player in his own right, or there because he’s your 3rd or 4th best forward but they’re all at other positions. I’m inclined to think it’s the latter at this point, so I’d have him in B Tier, but he’d definitely be on the higher end of B Tier. If it helps, I think Pelletier for Calgary is also in B Tier, and he’s putting up similar numbers as an AHL rookie (25 points in 21 games, very good defensively, also brings a huge leadership aspect). Quinn does have a better shot than Pelletier, but I think they’re very similar otherwise, and I’m not sure it’s so much better as to bump him up a tier.
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 4:48 p.m.
#599
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
So the big post for the CF prospect pyramid sheet: Link

Rules:
Skater must be under 23 as of January 1st 2021 ( so 1998 B-day ) and has played less than 41 NHL games
Goalies must be under 25 as of Jan 1st 2021 ( so 1996 B-day ) and not a full-time NHLer ( judgement call but if you're a team's top 2, you're not a prospect )

Tiers:
Elite=A tier so elite and franchise players
Core=B tier so 1st liners and elite goalies
Supporting Cast=C tier so 2nd liners, 2nd pairing D's and starters
Depth: D tier so middle 6/3rd liners, bottom 4 D, fringe starters
Maybe=E tier so longshots, bottom 6/3rd pairing/backups
Everyone Else= EE tier, anyone who most likely won't make the NHL

Please let me know if you have any suggestions on how the sheet should work. All tier change suggestions will be reviewed by the CF community ( hopefully ) and I will do my best to keep updated. For suggestions, either post them in CF or in the comments/suggestions page of the sheet ( if on the sheet, please put your CF username beside )


I've updated this post which will kind of be the guidelines for the sheet. We've added a new tier to help differentiate the gap between 1st liners and bottom 6 since there was only 1 tier between them before.

Also, I will be looking for 2 "helpers" for the sheet to complete a kind of trifecta of decision making the with input of the CF user base
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Dec. 16, 2021 at 4:53 p.m.
#600
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I've updated this post which will kind of be the guidelines for the sheet. We've added a new tier to help differentiate the gap between 1st liners and bottom 6 since there was only 1 tier between them before.

Also, I will be looking for 2 "helpers" for the sheet to complete a kind of trifecta of decision making the with input of the CF user base

If you score a nhl goal/ point and have a significant role in your team for a period of time what does where does this rank
 
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