Quoting: Leafsleaks123
I’m willing to admit Garland has the edge on Kerfoot, but there are a number of factors at play here. First, of course Garland is on a great contract, but Kerfoot is cheaper, it’s not like the leafs are just going to magically replace that 1.5 million next year, every dollar matters. Second, while Kerfoot has played with Tavares and Nylander mostly, he’s also gotten a lot of time with the black hole offensively that is David Kampf. Also, he doesn’t play PP at all, so those points aren’t inflated by the fact that the leafs have the best PP in the NHL. Third, Kerfoot’s age and contract length is pretty much irrelevant here, as the leafs likely need the cap space that he free’s up for Matthews and Nylander the following year. One of Amirov, Robertson, or Knies should be able to produce decently in a top six role while on an ELC by then. Fourth, while Garland’s analytics are better then Kerfoot’s, they are both above average defensively with Garland having the edge, but offensively this year Kerfoot has actually been better. I don’t necessarily think it’s sustainable but it doesn’t have to be because the leafs are in win now mode. Fifth, Kerfoot being traded in AGMs means nothing, the fact that Dubas has moved on from similar guys like Johnsson and Kapanen but kept Kerfoot tells you how much he values him. With all that said, sure, anyone would swap Kerfoot for Garland one for one, but if you want a first and our top prospect that’s just crazy. If that’s where were at, why not keep Kerfoot and address a real need for a top 4 defensemen, a package of Robertson and a 1st would get pretty much any defensemen on the market and the leafs can keep the solid top six winger that no one has complained about this year. Again, if you Nucks fans like Garland so much just keep him, I promise you the leafs will be fine with there current forward group
A few quick notes...
1- At even strength, Kerfoot has played 335+ minutes with Tavares and 291 minutes with Nylander. He has also played 105+ with Marner. He's played 90 with Kampf.
2- Age and contract length certainly matter when it's a player worth keeping around. And in case you did not notice, the Leafs would gain about 800K in cap space from this deal this season. Yes, Garland costs more (roughly 1.5M), but the savings from Mrazek to Halak (roughly 2.3M) outweighs that. Next season, when Halak runs out of contract, the Leafs would gain around 2.3M from the deal.
Besides, Matthews and Nylander aren't due new deals until 2025.
3- Garland's offense analytics are better than Kerfoot's (and with much lesser linemates). Not sure how you figured otherwise.
4- "... the fact that Dubas has moved on from similar guys like Johnsson and Kapanen but kept Kerfoot tells you how much he values him."
Or, conversely, it's just a product of the fact that those other players had big injury concerns (Johnsson) or a lot more trade value (Kapi).
5- You left out the value of getting out from under Mrazek's contract. And Robertson is probably no longer Toronto's top prospect, nor is he a top shelf prospect. Plus, he's racked up quite the injury history by age 20. It's not a great picture.
"... a package of Robertson and a 1st would get pretty much any defensemen on the market... "
Hahaha what??? Bruh...
Finally, I'm not a Vancouver fan. I'm a fully objective observer here. And Dubas would kiss Vancouver on the mouth, WITH sexy tongue, to make this deal. And if he didn't, Leafs nation would have a conniption fit. It's a no-brainer.