Based on Scouting Reports

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Created by: BeterChiarelli

Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 7, 2022

Published: Mar. 7, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Oilers have had their braintrust in both Philly and Winterpeg for a few games now and ultimately everyone accepts that the Oilers need to address their back end.

I think Holland backed himself into a corner with his past comments regarding the goaltending and I don't like the options that are available this year. Starting to think that Koskinen-Skinner has to at least hold water until the offseason. I'm 99% certain that Smith's career is over and that Edmonton finds the means to obtain a legitimate starter by the time the draft finishes.

Braun makes all the sense coming out of Philly. I'd like to see Brassard as well but if the Oilers must run an 11/7 setup he doesn't fit well. Sitting Bouchard or reassigning him doesn't make a lick of sense but it's clear that the right side needs a substantial injection. Following that train of thought, DeMelo and Schmidt are kind of sussed-out as the only two logical targets from Winnipeg and I think Demelo is a pipe-dream. If the Jets aren't looking to move him then Schmidt must be the target.

I personally like Nate and I think he hasn't fit well in Winnipeg but I'm unsure of the cost associated with acquiring him while sending Barrie to the land without an airport. I see Barrie fitting alongside Dillon or Stanley rather well as he plays best when he has a responsible partner.

I genuinely wonder if the Oilers continue running 11/7 into the playoffs. I think they're almost forced to do so.

Trades

EDM

Braun, Justin ($900,000 retained)

PHI

Benson, Tyler
2023 3rd round pick (EDM)

EDM

Schmidt, Nate

WPG

Barrie, Tyson
Samorukov, Dmitri
Turris, Kyle
2022 1st round pick (EDM)

Buyouts

James Neal: $1,916,667
Andrej Sekera: $1,500,000

Retained Salary Transactions

Milan Lucic: $750,000 (12.5%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2022
2023
2024

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$80,723,164	$669,339	$990,000	$776,836

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Kane, Evander $2,108,696$2,108,696 LW, RW NMC UFA - 1	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 5	Puljujärvi, Jesse $1,175,000$1,175,000 RW UFA - 1
Hyman, Zach $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 7	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW UFA - 4	Yamamoto, Kailer $1,175,000$1,175,000 RW RFA - 1
	Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $5,125,000$5,125,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 8	Ryan, Derek $1,250,000$1,250,000 C, RW UFA - 2
	McLeod, Ryan $834,167$834,167 ($57,500$58K) C RFA - 1	Kassian, Zack $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
Foegele, Warren $2,750,000$2,750,000 LW, RW UFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $5,600,000$5,600,000 LD UFA - 1	Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000$5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 4	Koskinen, Mikko $4,500,000$4,500,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Keith, Duncan $5,538,462$5,538,462 LD NMC UFA - 2	Ceci, Cody $3,250,000$3,250,000 RD UFA - 4	Skinner, Stuart $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 2
Niemeläinen, Markus $817,500$817,500 ($82,500$82K) LD UFA - 1	Bouchard, Evan $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) RD RFA - 2
	Braun, Justin $900,000$900,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Archibald, Josh $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1		Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2
Russell, Kris $1,250,000$1,250,000 LD/RD UFA - 1		Smith, Mike $2,200,000$2,200,000 G UFA - 2
Shore, Devin $850,000$850,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 2

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:24 p.m.

OilersMcRockin

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 359

Likes: 79

Braun i agree i like, if philly ever moved Hart we would overpay and pounce! Hometown kid too. Schmidt has the worst contract on Winnipeg, he would be okay if winnipeg retained 2 million but they wouldn't ever so i'd stick with DeMelo.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:26 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

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Quoting: JJstings315

I don't think the Jets are apt to run exclusively three puck-moving defencemen with term on their right side. Schmidt may or may not have the greatest contract with the Jets but you can say almost essentially the same regarding Barrie.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:28 p.m.

OilersMcRockin

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 359

Likes: 79

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

I'd look at comparing him to Keith personally. I agree i like Schmidt but with his contract thats the last thing the oilers would need is another crap contract. Jets would need to retain hands down. And im sure of that.

CD282 liked this.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:29 p.m.

OilersMcRockin

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 359

Likes: 79

Barrie still has value on a team with less of a cap hit like buffalo, detroit, seattle, or Airzona. I honestly think you can get a 2nd for him. And if montreal moves Chariot and Kulak, AND Petrey, they would definitely look at Barrie for a 2nd.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:37 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

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Quoting: JJstings315

I'm not entirely sold on Schmidt being nothing but a bad contract though. I've already stated that I question his fit in both Winnipeg and Vancouver where he was partnered with purely-offensive defensemen for the majority of his usage. Quinn Hughes and Josh Morrissey. I fully believe that he's a better fit alongside Nurse like he did with McNabb and Merill in Vegas.

I fully get that it's an expensive contract but I cannot fathom the Jets burning a retention slot on a guy with 3 years of term after this season. You move Kassian and offer McLeod and Niemelainen cheap one-year deals to afford Schmidt next season.

Quoting: JJstings315

The way cap space has become an asset I'd think Barrie maxes out at a 3rd round pick and a C-prospect. There's no fit for him in Detroit with Seider and Hronek already taking the top minutes (a cheaper PP option is probably for the best). Not sure how much the rebuilding teams (specifically Arizona) are going to want to hop onto the Barrie bandwagon and I don't see a deadline deal to be had with the Kraken. I think if that happens it's an offseason move. Lot of "ifs" for Montreal to be interested in Tyson.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:46 p.m.

toque

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,366

Likes: 1,581

My guess is that Edmonton is scouting Copp/Stastny from Winnipeg to play 3C. The Jets are very, very unlikely to move anyone with term at the deadline.

It's a toss-up for me if DeMelo is available this summer, Schmidt I don't know. He bought a house in Winnipeg in December and with how loyal Cheveldayoff is I always take that as a sign the player is staying but that's just a personal hunch

Timmah007, Mr_Canoehead and BeterChiarelli liked this.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:48 p.m.

Timmah007

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 8,634

Likes: 3,931

Braun makes too much sense. I’m on board with that target.
The jets I’m not entirely sure who they would be narrowing in on but I’d be shocked if it was an investment in lots of term don’t think Edmonton is in any place to consider doing that until offseason when some other questions get answered first.

BeterChiarelli liked this.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:48 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: toque

My guess is that Edmonton is scouting Copp/Stastny from Winnipeg to play 3C. The Jets are very, very unlikely to move anyone with term at the deadline.

Thr only reason I disagree is that they already have two guys who can play #3C between Nugent-Hopkins and McLeod. Love or hate the Kane signing, it's allowed them to not *need* RNH in the top-six. If they wanted another centerman they needn't look further than Arizona's Johan Larsson.

toque liked this.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 3:58 p.m.

DripBayless

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,586

Likes: 390

I think Braun and Demelo are the targets. The Jets could use a guy like Barrie so they may value him. He can teach them our PP and he'd have a spot with Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, and whoever on that PP. On WPG, he'd probably be a 2nd pair guy.

BeterChiarelli liked this.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 4:13 p.m.

#10

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,977

Likes: 7,102

No chance the Jets get stuck with Barrie's contract if they move Schmidt.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 4:19 p.m.

#11

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

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Likes: 6,455

Quoting: Windjammer

No chance the Jets get stuck with Barrie's contract if they move Schmidt.

I'd really appreciate a bit more out of you than another post naysaying Barrie.

There is a likelihood that some sort of three-way deal could be arranged with Seattle such that they end up with Barrie. I dont think it's outside the realm of possibilities as I think we've all collectively realized that's his best fit.

I'm far more interested in your thoughts as to what Edmonton's doing following the Jets so closely and what that greater deal would look like. Does DeMelo fit better in place of Schmidt here assuming the return is similar? Does it need to be a three-way deal?

Mar. 7, 2022 at 4:20 p.m.

#12

IconicHawk

Bedard23

Joined: May 2021

Posts: 9,314

Likes: 4,488

Quoting: JJstings315

Blake Wheeler has entered the chat

BeterChiarelli liked this.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 4:34 p.m.

#13

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,977

Likes: 7,102

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

No, it just means that if the Jets are moving Schmidt, they're not going to replace him with another arguably worse contract. Schmidt may become available, but not likely DeMelo.

The trade needs to work for both sides and the Oilers don't really have any pieces available that help the Jets if they move either Schmidt or DeMelo. They're just not good trading partners.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 4:41 p.m.

#14

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: Windjammer

What specifically are you hoping the potential return on Schmidt is then? A top-4 RHD? A grade-A prospect?

I'm wholly fine with Barrie not being the immediate piece wanted in return but as I stated, Seattle as a third party to accommodate Barrie should make this work, no? Any futures obtained can just as easily be moved for the specific player sought.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:00 p.m.

#15

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,977

Likes: 7,102

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Likely if the Jets move Schmidt, it will be for picks or RH defenseman or RH forwards. Probably of the B variety for prospects as I don't think he'll get an A prospect. I know it's easy to say "any futures obtained can easily be moved for the player sought", but we know that isn't true. Just based on how many trades are actually made each year. So, depending on the exact situation, I think the Jets will look for players/prospects they want as opposed to highest value offer.

The Jets just wouldn't want long term salary coming back. Unless it is a player that fills a need. So, I guess a Seattle option could work.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:13 p.m.

#16

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: Windjammer

Send:
2022 1st Round Pick (EDM)
(RD) Tyson Barrie
(RW) Kailer Yamamoto

Recieve:
2022 4th Round Pick (CGY)
(RC) Mason Appleton
(LD) Nate Scmidt

Winnipeg Jets

Send:
(LD) Nate Schmidt
(LW) Kristain Vesalainen

Recieve:
2022 1st Round Pick (EDM)
(RW) Kailer Yamamoto

:kraken
Send:
2022 4th Round Pick (CGY)
(RW) Mason Appleton

Recieve:
(RD) Tyson Barrie
(LW) Kristain Vesalainen

Seattle retains $1M of Nate Schmidt's cap hit.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:14 p.m.

#17

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,113

Likes: 7,778

I wouldn't do Schmidt for Barrie 1-for-1 let alone adding a 1st plus! That's a terrible move for Edmonton.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:15 p.m.

#18

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: CD282

I wouldn't do Schmidt for Barrie 1-for-1 let alone adding a 1st plus! That's a terrible move for Edmonton.

Until you justify that, I'm filing that take in with your preference to trade Kassian for something of value.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:20 p.m.

#19

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,113

Likes: 7,778

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Send:
2022 1st Round Pick (EDM)
(RD) Tyson Barrie
(RW) Kailer Yamamoto

Recieve:
2022 4th Round Pick (CGY)
(RC) Mason Appleton
(LD) Nate Scmidt

Winnipeg Jets

It just gets worse. Yamamoto >>> Appleton, 1st >>>> 5th and Barrie > Schmidt.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:22 p.m.

#20

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,113

Likes: 7,778

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Until you justify that, I'm filing that take in with your preference to trade Kassian for something of value.

Why would I have to justify my position? I don't see any justification for your horrible take that Schmidt is worth a 1st + prospect more than Barrie.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:25 p.m.

#21

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

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Likes: 6,455

Quoting: CD282

Why would I have to justify my position? I don't see any justification for your horrible take that Schmidt is worth a 1st + prospect more than Barrie.

Because I believe you've lost your credibility over some of your takes and because I don't have access to NaturalStatTrick until Wednesday without turning my phone into a portable campfire.

If the math is so overwhelmingly against Schmidt then I'll happily concede the point. At the end of the day, Barrie is a pox on this roster and needs to be moved between now and the start of next season for an actual defenceman. Beyond the potential for a deal for Connor Murphy, I dont know who that name would be.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:37 p.m.

#22

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,113

Likes: 7,778

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Schmidt has had a negative GF% Rel in 2 of the past 3 seasons (including this one). Barrie has only been negative in GF% Rel in 1 of the past 9 (the Toronto season). Schmidt is less physical (I didn't think it was possible, but there you go), gets paid more for longer and doesn't have a history of PP ability like Barrie. His 5v5 scoring isn't as good either.

Schmidt doesn't appear to be better defensively either: over the past 3 seasons combined his xGA/60, SCA/60 and HDCA/60 are all higher.

BeterChiarelli liked this.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:39 p.m.

#23

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

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Quoting: CD282

So who should we be targeting instead?

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:39 p.m.

#24

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,113

Likes: 7,778

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Because I believe you've lost your credibility over some of your takes

BTW, this is utter crap. Feel free to show me where I was wrong about something, otherwise you don't get to make comments like this.

Mar. 7, 2022 at 5:46 p.m.

#25

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: CD282

BTW, this is utter crap. Feel free to show me where I was wrong about something, otherwise you don't get to make comments like this.

Find me any AGM of yours or mine where you've either suggested Kassian can be traded for value or have actually made the trade. Need I remind you of the Gibson vs Koskinen saga?

I'm well within bounds (and the rules) to say that I think you've lost credibility. I think you went too deep into advanced stats and got lost in the numbers in some of those situations. Context is king and without it, the analytics don't mean much.

I'm not requiring anything of you to "regain credibility". All it's going to take are some takes I agree with and I'll be happy to take things at face value again.

Back to the point at hand: who should we be targeting to replace Barrie with?

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