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If CGY is blowing it up

Created by: Meeqs
Team: 2022-23 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 19, 2022
Published: Jul. 19, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$2,250,000
Trades
CGY
  1. Behrens, Sean [Reserve List]
  2. Bowers, Shane [RFA Rights]
  3. Compher, J.T.
  4. Olausson, Oskar
  5. 2023 1st round pick (COL)
  6. 2025 2nd round pick (COL)
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2024
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2025
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$82,500,000$81,552,500$25,000$3,562,500$947,500
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,300,000$6,300,000
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,250,000$9,250,000
RW, C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$4,850,000$4,850,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,125,000$6,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$912,500$912,500 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$908,333$908,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C, LW
RFA - 1
$2,250,000$2,250,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$1,250,000$1,250,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$1,050,000$1,050,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,100,000$4,100,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,000,000$2,000,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
LD/RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$987,500$987,500
LD/RD, LW
UFA - 2

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Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:22 p.m.
#1
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He won't be traded but I would want Girard + Newhook as a base
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:26 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
He won't be traded but I would want Girard + Newhook as a base


All things considered, I would actually trade Newhook in this situation. Would you accept Toews instead of Girard? I'd do Toews + Newhook for Lindholm and, like a 2024 2nd.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:27 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
He won't be traded but I would want Girard + Newhook as a base


If they're fully rebuilding there is no reason to keep him, if they're going to try and stay competitive then I agree.

I'm not surprised fans on here would prefer a more 'known' quantity in Newhook and I'd be open to a deal like that but it would be a very different package, and I do think the package above is overall better personally.

I would also be open to a deal around Girard as well but I don't feel like that makes any sense for CGY personally, although it would set up their defense for a quicker retool.

Lindholm isn't valuable enough to get both imo.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:28 p.m.
#4
Billy739
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I dont think they're blowing up
I just think they got screwed filiing for Arbitration

42 goals and 104 pts is not the season you want Arbitration evaluating when determining Term and Cap.
Subban had a great year here, we figured 6-7m and he got 9m on a max term

Given Tkachuk's production and Arbitration Judge's history of overpaying (hence players like Dylan Strome not being QO'd in early to mid 20's)
At the low side CGY is looking at 9m +
If they Subban level overpay you're looking at 11m easy

Its why teams are willing to dump , sell or just no qualify a lot of players going to Arbitration.
Unless they're a top talent its not worth overpaying and even if they are long term its unsustainable
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:28 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: NMAvsFan
All things considered, I would actually trade Newhook in this situation. Would you accept Toews instead of Girard? I'd do Toews + Newhook for Lindholm and, like a 2024 2nd.


Toews will never be moved by COL. COL also has 0 use for picks
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:29 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Billy739
I dont think they're blowing up
I just think they got screwed filiing for Arbitration

42 goals and 104 pts is not the season you want Arbitration evaluating when determining Term and Cap.
Subban had a great year here, we figured 6-7m and he got 9m on a max term

Given Tkachuk's production and Arbitration Judge's history of overpaying (hence players like Dylan Strome not being QO'd in early to mid 20's)
At the low side CGY is looking at 9m +
If they Subban level overpay you're looking at 11m easy

Its why teams are willing to dump , sell or just no qualify a lot of players going to Arbitration.
Unless they're a top talent its not worth overpaying and even if they are long term its unsustainable


They could retool and it wouldn't surprise me but I do think it would be foolish to do so. I guess we'll see what the return for Tkachuk will be when they trade him and that will be a pretty clear indicator
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:29 p.m.
#7
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I don't think Calgary will "blow it up" even with the loss of Gaudreau and the ongoing Tkachuk saga. They just don't do tear-downs.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:31 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Meeqs
Toews will never be moved by COL. COL also has 0 use for picks


I don't think they have "0 use for picks" - they can always use them to get more players. But I do agree that it is unlikely Toews will be moved. I think it's bad asset management to let him walk in FA but that's likely what they do.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:31 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: NMAvsFan
I don't think Calgary will "blow it up" even with the loss of Gaudreau and the ongoing Tkachuk saga. They just don't do tear-downs.


That team was average a best before losing Gaudreau. Now that they are very likely losing Tkachuk I don't see them being able to come back from that.

I'm not ruling out they continue to make bad choices, just that I think this would be an intriguing option should they choose the sensible one
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:32 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: NMAvsFan
I don't think they have "0 use for picks" - they can always use them to get more players. But I do agree that it is unlikely Toews will be moved. I think it's bad asset management to let him walk in FA but that's likely what they do.


Any player they draft now wont be NHL ready while they are in their current window, thusly they are simply trade assets and nothing more.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:33 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: NMAvsFan
All things considered, I would actually trade Newhook in this situation. Would you accept Toews instead of Girard? I'd do Toews + Newhook for Lindholm and, like a 2024 2nd.


No. Toews has 2 years left and is older than Lindholm. Girard is young enough and has enough term to fit into a short rebuild
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:36 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Meeqs
If they're fully rebuilding there is no reason to keep him, if they're going to try and stay competitive then I agree.

I'm not surprised fans on here would prefer a more 'known' quantity in Newhook and I'd be open to a deal like that but it would be a very different package, and I do think the package above is overall better personally.

I would also be open to a deal around Girard as well but I don't feel like that makes any sense for CGY personally, although it would set up their defense for a quicker retool.

Lindholm isn't valuable enough to get both imo.


Lindholm is certainly valuable enough to get both. He is on one of the best value contracts in the league.
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Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:37 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
No. Toews has 2 years left and is older than Lindholm. Girard is young enough and has enough term to fit into a short rebuild


I'd still probably do it, then.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:39 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: Meeqs
Any player they draft now wont be NHL ready while they are in their current window, thusly they are simply trade assets and nothing more.


That's what I'm talking about, using them in trades. And even if they do make the picks, those are players other teams might want. Having more draft capital and prospects is not a bad thing.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:41 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
He won't be traded but I would want Girard + Newhook as a base


Id do that for Lindholm
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Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:43 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Lindholm is certainly valuable enough to get both. He is on one of the best value contracts in the league.


He certainly has been, but with only 2 years left before UFA its not quite as valuable as it once was. Also with both of his elite linemates gone I think we see a pretty painful drop off next season if they can't find any high level replacements.

I am one of the biggest Lindholm fans, so no need to preach to the choir here. Girard is just also extremely valuable, and with an even better contract and younger I think they are pretty similar in value. I could see something small added to Girard if he was moved now but nothing as substantial as Newhook.

I think as the year goes on Lindholms value will drop a good bit, just due to lack of talent around him and the term on his contract diminishing. Similar to what we see now with JT Miller
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Jul. 19, 2022 at 5:43 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: NMAvsFan
That's what I'm talking about, using them in trades. And even if they do make the picks, those are players other teams might want. Having more draft capital and prospects is not a bad thing.


Better to just make the right trade the first time than a trade that will require a 2nd one to make sense.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 6:07 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: Meeqs
Better to just make the right trade the first time than a trade that will require a 2nd one to make sense.


Uh, they can use draft capital and prospects to make other trades to address other needs
Jul. 19, 2022 at 6:17 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: NMAvsFan
Uh, they can use draft capital and prospects to make other trades to address other needs


Make the right trade and they wont have any other needs tbh
Jul. 19, 2022 at 6:20 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
He won't be traded but I would want Girard + Newhook as a base


I could see that with Calgary adding prospect/pick.
Jul. 19, 2022 at 6:36 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: TJTwolf
I could see that with Calgary adding prospect/pick.


Cgy honestly doesn't have anything else that is that valuable to COL. I know fans like to add on mid round picks and prospects to 'even out the value' in a vacuum but it doesn't actually work that way.

Lindholm just doesn't have that kind of value to get both, and while moving one of the 2 could make sense, it doesn't for both. Lindholms value also wont be going any higher, so you can just wait CGY out until Lindholm regresses without the 2 elite wingers boosting him up. There wont be another team that will beat the offer Col could make with 1 of those pieces.

And again I am the biggest Lindholm fan, just not irrationally or ignorantly so. His value now isn't that different than JT Millers was last TDL, although the teams have different needs
Jul. 19, 2022 at 6:38 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: Meeqs
Make the right trade and they wont have any other needs tbh


So, you only need to make one trade to address all your needs at any given time?
Jul. 19, 2022 at 6:43 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: Meeqs
Cgy honestly doesn't have anything else that is that valuable to COL. I know fans like to add on mid round picks and prospects to 'even out the value' in a vacuum but it doesn't actually work that way.

Lindholm just doesn't have that kind of value to get both, and while moving one of the 2 could make sense, it doesn't for both. Lindholms value also wont be going any higher, so you can just wait CGY out until Lindholm regresses without the 2 elite wingers boosting him up. There wont be another team that will beat the offer Col could make with 1 of those pieces.

And again I am the biggest Lindholm fan, just not irrationally or ignorantly so. His value now isn't that different than JT Millers was last TDL, although the teams have different needs


I'd say you disagree with everyone on the value then. Personally I see your offer above as way worse for the Avs. But then opinions vary!
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Jul. 19, 2022 at 6:50 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: TJTwolf
I'd say you disagree with everyone on the value then. Personally I see your offer above as way worse for the Avs. But then opinions vary!


I mean message board aren't known for being filled with experts. Doesn't matter to me if anyone agrees, occasionally someone creates something really clever which is really what I look for.

Also I do think the offer I presented is the best for both CGY and COL which is why I made it. If CGY is moving Zebulon then they're rebuilding and the trade above gives them the best futures value which aligns with both teams needs.
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Jul. 19, 2022 at 6:50 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: NMAvsFan
So, you only need to make one trade to address all your needs at any given time?


If you're the Avs and only have 1 hole atm then yeah kinda.
 
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