He isn’t being moved until the deadline if the Devils aren’t in the hunt. Severson will cost at minimum a 1st + Prospect.

I doubt that for two reasons 1. he's going to be on the bottom or middle pair. 2. you've got to make room for Nemec 3. a second and a b- to b+ prospect is a reasonable price for a defender on an 1-year deal

I meant 3 reasons

i think thats a pretty fair return imo. it's probably a better return than what manson got just because I think jarventie is a better prospect than helleson, and it's definitely a better return that what ryan ellis got too

Severson is a 2nd pair RD who can slide into 1st pair when needed. The value of these players has always been a 1st + prospect at the deadline. Someone will offer a 1st for him at the deadline. Devils don't need to make room for Nemec as he is only with the team right now for Cap reasons. He will be sent down and Bahl will be brought up to replace him.

You can doubt that, but there are many flaws in your argument

1. "He's going to bottom or middle pair defenseman" Have you seen a trade deadline before? Teams are bulking up for the playoffs with guys that may be better than the position they put them in all the time. 1st rounders don't go based on where a team puts someone but on the price other teams are willing to pay. Being RHD are rare, the price will be high.

2. We don't have to make room for Nemec this year. He isn't sticking with the club. It's a money paper move now.


Ryan Novozinsky
@ryannovo62
The #NJDevils just confirmed a few things to me:

- Don’t be shocked if Bahl gets called up soon.

- If Nemec wasn’t called up now, he likely wouldn’t have been this year, since cap hit for him would be MUCH larger later on. Doing it now gives them max. cap flexibility for LTIR.

3. You can have that as your "fair price", but you are also discounting anyone else even being interested. Rarity drives up prices. The Devils don't have to deal with Ottawa. It's not a binary argument.

Ryan Ellis? The guy who was hurt so often and the Flyers and Preds knew would have a tough road on injuries? The Flyers were hoping he would overcome it and the Preds got out when they could.

Im just saying that you can trade Severson for a good return or lose him for nothing in free agency

Oft injured sure but was a teriffic player when healthy. People thought the flyers came away from that as pretty big winners iirc but hindsight is 20/20. Regardless, pretty comparable deal is what manson got at the tdl last year, which was a second and a prospect worse than jarventie

As a Senators fan I absolutely agree with you. Love Severson.
The only thing holding me back from making this deal is if Debrincat gets signed. Not enough money to go around.

Agreed. But this isn't a "good" return.

Canes say sure

Edmonton declines. They aren't trading a perennial 50 point defender for a measly 4th.

Severson has led our team in TOI for past 5 years and probably will do so again this year. He is not a bottom pair defender.

The RD market can get a little nutty at times. Risto, Savard are examples of far inferior players getting much greater returns. If an extension is in place, the return will be close to Hampus Lindholm trade last year. If Severson were to be retained for a year ($2.083 million), the return could be even higher. I think a competitive offer from Ottawa would include Greig or 2023 1st or two good pieces (like JBD, Ostapchuk, etc).

Extending Severson ourselves has not been ruled out. He wants to stay, but also wants max term (am guessing his extension will look a little like Weegar’s or Faulk’s).

Nemec likely gets 9 or fewer games this year (maybe for two years). Luke Hughes (lefty who plays RD) could force the issue sooner than Nemec.

Josh Manson isn’t a great comparison.
If using 2022 comps, use Hampus Lindholm.

there's no way the sens trade Grieg + a first for a defender on an expiring deal

Greig or a 1st. But the comp I was suggesting was Hampus Lindholm. This is probably more realistic approach.

Vaakanainen = JBD
1st = 1st
2nd = 2nd

Then if salary needs to adjusted, can add equivalent to Moore + 2nd and 50% retention on Severson’s deal).

Greig or 2023 1st

Fitz will probably be looking for a very good, near NHL ready prospect for Severson if he's shopping him at the deadline. I don't expect him to be too interested in picks, but Ottawa's 1st will probably be a bit more interesting than a lot of the other teams that would likely be calling, like the Leafs, Edmonton, Florida, etc.

I don't know if the market will command a 1st and a top prospect or more. If that is the going rate I think the Wild would have traded Dumba already in my eyes Severson and Dumba are very comparable players. I know Dumba has been shopped around alittle bit and BG didn't like the offers or lack of offers, I think the value of RH Dmen is cooling off quite a bit with 2/3rds of the league in cap hell. That may change come TDL time but looking at most teams projected to make the playoffs there is a handful of teams that need RHD and of those only a couple can afford it, now if there is a NJD trade could they get a piece like a 2nd rounder back for taking on a bad contract or salary sure but I just don't think there will be a ton of big trades this year.

I don’t think Dumba has same trade value as Severson. First, I believe Severson is the better overall player. Second, Dumba has had a few injuries in recent years that could limit his return. Third, Minnesota was not willing to retain on his $6 million cap hit while it’s likely NJ would eat half of Severson’s $4m cap hit.

I will give you the injury point but would disagree on the 1st and 3rd points. Every model I have seen have both players with very similar stats lines, most recently they both have the same GSVA at 1.1 according to Dom at the Athletic. I am sure I could find a hundred Wild fans to argue with you on who is the overall better player and I am sure you could do the same.
As far as the retaining salary for trade I haven't seen any reports that the Wild wouldn't retain, especially after the Wild traded Kulikov they have plenty of space, in fact more than 3/4 of the league and could even take a player back in return. Now I am not sitting next to BG when he is fielding phone calls from other GM's, but I would bet if an offer for a 1st and a prospect came across BG's desk I would think he would take it even if he had to retain, that is the same return he got for Fiala.

Now this could be moot point for both because you stated extending Severson hasn't been ruled out and the same has been said for Dumba.

given the cap situation of the league this year though i dont think theres going to be enough buyers with avaliable cap who would be willing to drive his price that high. Realsitically he probably falls somewhere in the middle of the proposed and what lindholm got, 1st rounder and B-ish level prospect

Ben freaking Chiarot receieved a first round pick +

Severson can actually play hockey

Severson 50% retained would be $2,083,333. Done at deadline, only 20% of that would count if a team is accruing cap space. So I think there are actually very few teams that would be capped out of a Severson market.