The Thing About Tarasenko

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Created by: TheEarthmaster

Team: 2022-23 St. Louis Blues

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 9, 2023

Published: Feb. 9, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Here's the thing with Tarasenko folks.

He's played okay, but worse than last year.
He's been hurt.
He had complete control over his destination.

I've been saying it for weeks- the range of Tarasenko trades were vast and varied and much depended on him. But it was extremely unlikely that he was going to get a 2023 1st and a top prospect. If you thought that, I don't think you were thinking it through all the way. I thought he would get an okay prospect and a 2nd. I was wrong. He got a 2023 1st and a (almost certainly) a 3rd.

And to be clear, that is pretty much all they got. You can talk yourself into Hunter Skinner as much as you want, but it's not rooted in reality. He's a 21 year old defenseman who had previously been playing in the AHL and is now playing in the ECHL, because he couldn't hack it in the AHL. He's not a prospect. He was included so that the Rangers could take both Mikkola and Tarasenko and stay under the contract limit. Skinner may, at best, become a guy who can be called up for spot service here or there, in a couple years. But even that is unlikely.

That said, I don't agree that the Blues got ripped off here, nor that they blundered by not trading Tarasenko in the summer.

For one, The Blues thought they were going to be good this year. You don't trade guys for futures when you think you can go for it, even if their contract is expiring.

Tarasenko also made 7.5 million dollars. The Blues were not going to retain all year- they thought they were going to be good. No one had cap space. The Rangers couldn't have made this trade over the summer. And the NTC was still a factor.

Ultimately I feel like they played their cards as well as they could have under the circumstances. A 2023 1st is solid. No one should be upset about receiving this.

Good luck to the must fun player I ever watched live in a Blues uniform. I'll miss him. Here's to some more trades.

Trades

STL

Kerfoot, Alexander
Niemelä, Topi
2023 1st round pick (TOR)

TOR

O'Reilly, Ryan ($3,750,000 retained)

STL

Lavoie, Raphael
Puljujärvi, Jesse
2023 2nd round pick (EDM)

EDM

Barbashev, Ivan ($1,125,000 retained)
Leivo, Josh

Retained Salary Transactions

Vladimir Tarasenko: $3,750,000 (50%)
Ryan O'Reilly: $3,750,000 (200%)
Ivan Barbashev: $1,125,000 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$82,500,000	$81,027,500	$1,100,000	$390,000	$1,472,500

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Saad, Brandon $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW, RW NTC UFA - 4	Schenn, Brayden $6,500,000$6,500,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 6	Kyrou, Jordan $2,800,000$2,800,000 RW UFA - 1
Neighbours, Jake $835,833$835,833 ($82,500$82K) LW, RW RFA - 3	Thomas, Robert $2,800,000$2,800,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Buchnevich, Pavel $5,800,000$5,800,000 LW, RW, C M-NTC UFA - 3
Blais, Samuel $1,525,000$1,525,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Puljujärvi, Jesse $3,000,000$3,000,000 RW UFA - 1
Toropchenko, Alexey $750,000$750,000 LW, RW RFA - 1	Alexandrov, Nikita $816,667$816,667 ($57,500$58K) C RFA - 2	Acciari, Noel $1,250,000$1,250,000 C, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Krug, Torey $6,500,000$6,500,000 LD NTC UFA - 5	Faulk, Justin $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD NTC UFA - 5	Binnington, Jordan $6,000,000$6,000,000 G NTC UFA - 5
Leddy, Nick $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD NTC UFA - 4	Parayko, Colton $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD NTC UFA - 8	Greiss, Thomas $1,250,000$1,250,000 ($250,000$250K) G UFA - 1
Scandella, Marco $3,275,000$3,275,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Perunovich, Scott $750,000$750,000 LD RFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Brown, Logan $750,000$750,000 C, LW RFA - 1
Bortuzzo, Robert $950,000$950,000 RD UFA - 2
Pitlick, Tyler $750,000$750,000 RW UFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Walker, Nathan $750,000$750,000 ($0$0$0$0) LW UFA - 1
Rosén, Calle $762,500$762,500 ($0$0$0$0) LD UFA - 2

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:45 p.m.

MoreHitzSeider

Seiders on the Storm

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 9,890

Likes: 7,764

This is just a case of a fan cheering for the laundry. "Player doesn't play for my team so he sucks now."

Rangers fans should be excited. Tarasenko is 31 years old and will light it up playing with Bread man and Zib. It's a good trade for both teams.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:47 p.m.

TheEarthmaster

Thread Starter

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,834

Likes: 938

Quoting: MoreHitzSeider

Did I say he sucks now? I don't think I did. I said he's played okay, but worse than last year. That is objectively true.

I truly hope he does play well with the Rangers. Rangers fans should be excited. Doesn't change that the Blues could not have reasonably gotten much more than this with the way he had been playing on the Blues this year, his own contract clauses, and his recent injury.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:47 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,540

Likes: 22,687

So while I agree with you narrative, you are saying correct that in effective the Blues got a later first rounder for a 50% retained Tarasenko,
Then I fail to see the logic why the current edition of ROR who has been inferior to Tarasenko, gets a first, a very good NHL Dman prospecttrade proposal. Heck the very good Horvat this season got a mid round first and equivalent to a second rounder.

Newgod77 liked this.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:49 p.m.

AV12

Anth

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 78

Likes: 10

You say all that about tarasenko justifying the value, but then somehow trade O'Reilly to the leafs for a much more significant return than tarasneko 😂 O'Reilly injured, older, and worse yet somehow you think he fetches a top prospect and a first along with Kerfoot who has more points last year than Blais whole career.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:51 p.m.

TheEarthmaster

Thread Starter

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

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Quoting: palhal

I think he'll get more because he's not bound by a NTC, and because hockey people "like" O'Reilly more. Cup pedigree and all that. He's played worse, but as we've seen with players like Foligno, Chiarot, and Savard, if you have the correct "qualities" you can still extract assets even if you're playing poorly

I also think the Leafs front office is going to be in do or die mode and that may push them to be more aggressive than they otherwise might be.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:52 p.m.

TheEarthmaster

Thread Starter

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,834

Likes: 938

Quoting: AV12

The Leafs have to trade someone making money off their roster to make any additions. Kerfoot or Engvall. Take your pick.

I said in another comment above why I feel that O'Reilly will fetch more and why the Leafs might be the team to do it.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:54 p.m.

AV12

Anth

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 78

Likes: 10

Quoting: TheEarthmaster

The Leafs have to trade someone making money off their roster to make any additions. Kerfoot or Engvall. Take your pick.

I said in another comment above why I feel the O'Reilly will fetch more and why the Leafs might be the team to do it.

Maybe it's just poor timing from your post, but dubas said the exact opposite in his conference today. Essentially saying hes not trading a first / top prospect for any rental. Also said he would consider moving prime assets for a long term piece that makes the team better as a whole.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:56 p.m.

TheEarthmaster

Thread Starter

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,834

Likes: 938

Quoting: AV12

No I didn't see that, that would have made me reconsider.

Maybe it's true that they won't. Maybe it's true O'Reilly won't get more. I don't know anything. Just taking shots in the dark.

AV12 liked this.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:57 p.m.

AV12

Anth

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 78

Likes: 10

Quoting: TheEarthmaster

No I didn't see that, that would have made me reconsider.

Maybe it's true that they won't. Maybe it's true O'Reilly won't get more. I don't know anything. Just taking shots in the dark.

I gotchu, what u think a Buchnevich deal looks like tho, or u think thats a non-starter for STL management

Feb. 9, 2023 at 3:58 p.m.

#10

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,540

Likes: 22,687

Quoting: TheEarthmaster

Oh, I agree that if the Leafs take on cap with a forward, Kerfoot or Engvall likely has to go. But I certainly don't see the premium being a 1st and Niemela at all

Feb. 9, 2023 at 4:00 p.m.

#11

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 42,912

Likes: 23,959

I thought they’d get at least a B prospect in the deal with that 1st. A prospect of a 2nd round pick equivalent or a 2nd. Someone like Cuylle

Feb. 9, 2023 at 4:09 p.m.

#12

TheEarthmaster

Thread Starter

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,834

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Quoting: AV12

I gotchu, what u think a Buchnevich deal looks like tho, or u think thats a non-starter for STL management

If I was the GM I'd be engaging on anyone not named Thomas or Kyrou. I'm not sure (in fact I sincerely doubt) the actual management feels the same way.

But if they are, I think for Buchnevich you're looking at a 1st and Knies, at a minimum. They don't HAVE to trade him, so there's no pressure like there would be with their rentals, so they can ask for the moon.

Really depends on how quickly the Blues think they can turn this ship around. If they think they just need another year to ship out some contracts, then they might keep and extend him. If they think it's going to take longer...as much as I love Buchnevich (and I truly do) you have to wonder if it makes sense to keep him around for all that.

AV12 and AC14 liked this.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 4:19 p.m.

#13

AC14

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 2,755

Likes: 1,403

This is essentially my train of thought going forward as well. I think the Blues end up with Puljujaarvi somehow, a 1st and a 2nd and possibly another pick from ROR. prospects are very hard to gauge and their availability even more hard to gauge.

TheEarthmaster liked this.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 4:50 p.m.

#14

AC14

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 2,755

Likes: 1,403

Quoting: csick

I thought they’d get at least a B prospect in the deal with that 1st. A prospect of a 2nd round pick equivalent or a 2nd. Someone like Cuylle

They got pretty much a 3rd. I have to imagine the main sticking point as it should be for Army was the 1st. Also I’d venture to guess that the clock was ticking on Army. Most viable candidates for Tarasenko as reportedly approved by him were NJD, NYI, NYR. NYI doesn’t have a 23 1st anymore NJD probably prefers Meier and NYR probably put a time stamp on their offer knowing this. This is all speculation. But it’s pretty rational to connect the dots. The 23 1st is probably 3 seasons or so out which fits when our need on defense and at least positional lineup spot availability opens up a bit more. Would certainly prefer picking 20-32 as opposed to trying to shove a guy like Zac Jones in and picking around 60

csick liked this.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 4:57 p.m.

#15

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: theEarthmaster

must fun player I ever watched live in a Blues uniform. I'll miss him.

You're too young to remember the Brett Hull era, I take it?

Feb. 9, 2023 at 4:58 p.m.

#16

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Honestly I don't think Barbashev is worth that much. His production in the playoffs is virtually nil and he has plenty of track record.

palhal liked this.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 5:34 p.m.

#17

RipNasty

Rip

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 11,240

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Quoting: TheEarthmaster

You certainly hope so anyways. Dubas isn't going to ruin the future to make a move for the sake of it. ROR isn't going to cost more than a 1st, he may not even get a first if they use a good prospect and a 2nd or something instead. His value is not half as high as you guys hope.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 5:39 p.m.

#18

TheEarthmaster

Thread Starter

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,834

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Quoting: CD282

You're too young to remember the Brett Hull era, I take it?

Too young for when he was on the Blues, yeah. He was on Detroit when I first started watching hockey in such a way that I can remember it.

CD282 liked this.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 5:44 p.m.

#19

TheEarthmaster

Thread Starter

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,834

Likes: 938

Quoting: CD282

Honestly I don't think Barbashev is worth that much. His production in the playoffs is virtually nil and he has plenty of track record.

I think Barbashev should fetch a 2nd pretty easily as sort of a swiss army bottom sixer. The only reason I included a prospect as well is because by dumping Puljujarvi and only taking back Barbashev ~1 million the Oilers are gaining cap space to use to acquire the defenseman they seem to want. Hard to both add an impact forward (in the regular season, anyway) as well as shed cap space in the same move. All depends on if the Blues consider Puljujarvi cooked or not I guess.

Feb. 9, 2023 at 7:29 p.m.

#20

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,540

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Quoting: CD282

You're too young to remember the Brett Hull era, I take it?

Well if it came to quality of play, yep Hull and Oates were good. But for another type of "fun", go back to the inception or soon after Blues with the Plager brothers, Gassoff and Durbano.

CD282 liked this.

Feb. 10, 2023 at 8:14 a.m.

#21

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: palhal

Well if it came to quality of play, yep Hull and Oates were good. But for another type of "fun", go back to the inception or soon after Blues with the Plager brothers, Gassoff and Durbano.

Ooo, I'm not THAT old! cheers

Feb. 10, 2023 at 8:18 a.m.

#22

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: TheEarthmaster

The $750k cap gain doesn't allow Edmonton to acquire anyone though. They need to send Shore down and STILL are $1.125M short of being able to activate Yamamoto from LTIR... this trade doesn't bridge that gap.

And Barbashev's annual post season disappearing act isn't very attractive. They can get physical bottom-6 players for much less than this package, who also have <$1M cap hits.

Edit: I just realized that Leivo is also I this trade, so the cap savings is zero. And Lavoie is having a breakout season in the AHL this year, we're not giving you our next Klim Kostin!

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