Meier comparable

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: evelutions2

Team: 2022-23 Carolina Hurricanes

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 12, 2023

Published: Feb. 12, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Meier is a great player, but he has been one of the most overvalued players on this site for a while now. The likelihood a team trades a first round pick (2023) AND a top prospect for Meier is very unlikely, considering that trades like that rarely happen, I believe only about 4 times during the cap era. Frankly, the likelihood for 2 first round picks in return for Meier is also very low. 2 of the best trade comparables for Meier would be Kevin Fiala and Alex DeBrincat. Fiala has put up 338 points in 473 career games, with most of his time only having 1 really good linemate (until LA). DeBrincat has put up 349 points in 419 career games. Meier has put up 315 points in 447 career games. I’m only really judging their offensive totals here, since their defensive abilities leave something to be desired.

I think Meier is better offensively than Fiala (for now), but not as good as DeBrincat. So whilst both of the trade happened in the off-season, Meier shouldn’t get much more, if any more at all, considering similar production, and somewhat similar contract status at the time of the trade. Fiala had his RFA rights trade to LA for 2022 1st round pick (19OA) and RD prospect Brock Faber (B prospect in my opinion). DeBrincat was traded with 1 year of contract and RFA rights at season’s end (9mil QO) to Ottawa for 2022 first round pick (7OA), 2022 2nd round pick (39OA), and a 2024 3rd round pick (TBD).

Meier is available at a 6mil cap hit this year (3mil if SJ chooses to eat half his salary) but he has a 10mil QO after this season. The 2022 draft was good for the top 4 but nothing to really write home about for the rest of it just yet. The 2023 is expected to be one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, capable of potentially rivaling the 2003 and 2015 drafts. So 2023 first round picks are going to be quite a bit more valuable than 2022 first round picks, with the quality of picks likely being close for a 7-12OA in 2022 around 25-32 in 2023.

Trades

CAR

Meier, Timo

Additional Details:

Overpaying for Meier here due to the difference in off season and deadline prices, but this should be more than enough to get Meier, especially with no retention involved.

SJS

Koivunen, Ville
2023 1st round pick (CAR)
2023 3rd round pick (PHI)
2024 2nd round pick (PHI)

Additional Details:

2023 first round pick (likely to be in the 28-32OA range), B prospect with high potential in Koivunen (RW), 2024 2nd round pick, and a 2023 3rd round pick

CAR

O'Reilly, Ryan ($3,750,000 retained)

Additional Details:

Based on ROR’s play, he shouldn’t return a first. A 2nd a decent prospect is quite a bit more fair considering his career low year and just coming back from injury.

STL

Drury, Jack
2023 2nd round pick (CAR)

Additional Details:

Drury or Suzuki, whoever the Blues choose between the 2 to be involved.

Retained Salary Transactions

Ethan Bear: $400,000 (18.18%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$82,500,000	$73,504,417	$112,500	$1,000,000	$8,995,583

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Meier, Timo $3,000,000$3,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Aho, Sebastian $8,460,250$8,460,250 C UFA - 2	Jarvis, Seth $894,167$894,167 ($500,000$500K) RW RFA - 2
Svechnikov, Andrei $7,750,000$7,750,000 LW, RW UFA - 7	O'Reilly, Ryan -$1,875,000-$1,875,000 C UFA - 1	Necas, Martin $3,000,000$3,000,000 RW RFA - 2
Stastny, Paul $1,500,000$1,500,000 ($500,000$500K) C, LW NTC UFA - 1	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi $4,820,000$4,820,000 C UFA - 8	Teräväinen, Teuvo $5,400,000$5,400,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 2
Martinook, Jordan $1,800,000$1,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Staal, Jordan $6,000,000$6,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 1	Fast, Jesper $2,000,000$2,000,000 RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Slavin, Jaccob $5,300,000$5,300,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Burns, Brent $5,280,000$5,280,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Andersen, Frederik $4,500,000$4,500,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Skjei, Brady $5,250,000$5,250,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Pesce, Brett $4,025,000$4,025,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Raanta, Antti $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 1
De Haan, Calvin $850,000$850,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Chatfield, Jalen $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Noesen, Stefan $762,500$762,500 LW, RW UFA - 2		Pacioretty, Max $7,000,000$7,000,000 LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Stepan, Derek $750,000$750,000 C, RW UFA - 1		Gardiner, Jake $4,050,000$4,050,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 1
Coghlan, Dylan $762,500$762,500 RD RFA - 1		Kase, Ondrej $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW UFA - 1

Feb. 12, 2023 at 10:06 a.m.

Jfstompers

Pop Pop

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 14,617

Likes: 8,281

I think you get out bid here for Meier. If the best piece you're offering is a 29th pick overall someone beats that. San Jose may get less quantity but they'll get more quality.

Feb. 12, 2023 at 10:13 a.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

DeBrincat is a bad example though, he was traded for the 7th OV which is worth 2 1sts+ of the 20-32 variety.

mokumboi and Kyriakos_Grizzly liked this.

Feb. 12, 2023 at 10:15 a.m.

SJS2212

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 421

Likes: 225

PPG power forward that is made for the NHL playoffs is a better player and higher value than a 5'8 Debrincat that has never whiffed a non-fake bubble NHL playoff game. You're also not factoring in that deadline prices are always higher than offseason prices because teams are desperate to make the move that puts them over the top with an already good and contending roster.

Also, Debrincat got a 7th overall pick compared to the pick SJS gets being outside the top 20. Don't care what anyone says about depth of draft, a top 7 pick in a weaker draft is always going to be greater than a pick in the 22-26 range in a stronger draft. Meier is going to get the Sharks a 1st, top prospect, and B prospect or they'll hold onto him. It's pretty simple. There are enough suitors that someone will step up and pay the price, especially with SJ retaining 50% this year.

Feb. 12, 2023 at 10:18 a.m.

mokumboi

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 29,313

Likes: 11,371

That's not an overpay for Meier.

Feb. 12, 2023 at 10:20 a.m.

Sjbackseatgm

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 441

Likes: 131

So close, and yet so far..

Feb. 12, 2023 at 10:21 a.m.

vikhodush

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 6,694

Likes: 3,362

I agree with some of the logic but you lose me at comparing 7OA to 25 or later, regardless of draft class.

Also think comps are reasonable as a starting point but have to factor in the market which could drive up the cost. I think he’ll end up going for less than a lot of offers on here but more than what you’ve put.

drambui liked this.

Feb. 12, 2023 at 11:32 a.m.

papishark

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 8,796

Likes: 3,226

Just say you dont get it and move on

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