After 10 hours...

NJD: 109 (74%)
SJS: 18 (12%)
Fair: 20 (14%)

Will be interesting to see how it moves from here.

Hindsight isn't needed. We know what the assets are worth. NJD significantly wins here asset wise. Nothing the Sharks acquire is a significant piece. They're all projected to be mid tier players at best.

I think that is rather short-sighted view. No one knows how this will turn out.

Everyone thought NJD was fleeced when they sent Taylor Hall to Arizona. Know we have Mercer, Siegenthaler, Bahl on our roster. Consensus was St. Louis robbed Buffalo on ROR, but look at Tage Thompson now. And fans sided with San Jose in Karlsson trade, before they knew anything about Norris and Stutzle.

First impression almost always favors team getting established star.

Too many moving pieces to decide who won this deal, except that whomever stiches the names of the back of the Devils uniforms is happy that they won't have to figure out how to fit MUKHAMADULLIN. However whomever does this for Sharks is not .

Yeah, the protections on these picks are a joke, especially this year's pick.

For the 2023 1st to end up in the top 2, they’d have to finish 21st or lower in the overall league standings this season and win one of the two lottery draws. They’re now 3rd overall, 19 points ahead of the 21st team with 23 games to go and many of the teams below them having fewer games than that. They’d pretty much have to lose all of their remaining games in regulation.

The 2024 1st also has protection, but the Sharks don’t even get it unless the Devils make it to the conference final this year or next. If it happens next year, the pick can’t be in the top 10 anyway, because the conference finalists pick in the bottom 4. The only way the protection could kick in would be for the Devils to make the conference final this year and miss the playoffs next year. Even then, they’d have to either finish in the bottom 10 or win one of the lottery draws. I guess stranger things have happened, so it probably did make sense to protect that pick, but the protection on the 2023 pick is just a waste of paper.

NJD was fleeced in the trade, they did not win the trade.

There's a difference between losing a trade and having a good scouting and developing team. Hall had way more value than the 18th overall pick and depth players.

Guess that's the difference between my perspective on who wins a trade and who doesn't. SJS won that Karlsson trade asset wise, but unforeseen circumstances changed the outlook on the trade. St.Louis absolutely won that trade. They won the cup and ROR won the conn Smythe, doesn't matter what Thompson does unless he repeats the same process. Even still, he was a bust prospect who benefitted from a change of scenery.

None of the Devils players are top line and might not even be second line. The picks will be late.

Well done for the Devils, they fleeced Grier, but that seems to be the trend with him as a GM.

Ibragimov + Hatakka or Mukhamadullin + Okhotiuk

Pretty close on spelling....but Muk, Ok win that one.

This is a mess of a trade to read through. Jersey takes the W here, no questions. Given they didn't move their very top prospects (depends a little on who you ask but consensus is at least not their top), and the conditions on the picks, I think the worst case for Jersey here is they bow out in the 1st or 2nd round, trade Meier for at least a 1st + later pick at the draft, this is an inexpensive rental. If they sign an extension at any number less than $10M, they win the trade immediately because players this good don't come around via trade very often.

Sharks really don't get as much here as you would hope from a player of Meier's age and ability. New Jersey now has gone from a nice surprise season to announcing their are a perennial contender in a pretty short amount of time.

Great trade for the Devils, sharks fans are probably a bit disappointed after all the speculation and healthy scratches.

Sure, its easy to separate the trade and the scouting or development that can improve upon the return. But you still need the pieces. And here, San Jose walked away with possibly four solid assets in Zetterlund, Mukhamadullin and the two picks. Its up to them to do something with them.

Some expected Mercer, or Holtz or Nemec....but in reality, guys like that are very, very rarely traded (even more rare to be done with high picks). So, its not realistic to expect that sort of return.



When have we seen top-line prospects traded?
I can count on my fingers the amount of trades in cap era that have included three pieces, with a 1st, that included a top-25 prospect.

Eichel
O'Reilly
Yandle
Ryan
Nash
Burns
Pronger

Only two wingers, both had term.

If you want to go to top-50 prospect...Zucker, Hall, Muzzin, Karlsson, Kessel, Pominville, Kovalchuk, Boyle, Forsberg...maybe a couple others and that is it.

Hard to seperate because there's no much conversation here.

1. New Jersey wins this trade. We can look back and maybe somehow San Jose actually recieved more value based on drafting/development, but New Jersey will always win IMO because they paid less than Meier's perceived value. You're arguably getting a top 10 winger in the league, if you aren't getting any A prospects or top end picks, it's a loss.

There’s been a lot of talk about the Devils not having to give up one of their top prospects, but let’s look at what they were trading for. Meier is in the same position as Pierre-Luc Dubois and Alex DeBrincat are now and Matthew Tkachuk was a year ago. He can take a 1-year qualifying offer or arbitration award and become an unrestricted free agent next year, so he could turn out to be just an extended rental – the rest of this season plus next season – and an expensive rental at that, because his qualifying offer is $10M. An NHL-ready “can’t miss” prospect could actually be worth more because he can give them 2 or 3 years in the NHL on an entry-level cap hit. They may not be as good as Meier, but the better player isn’t always the better investment. It’s all about what he gives you per dollar of cap hit.

Of course, everybody, including me, expects Meier to sign long term, but remember, the only reason he was available is because he wouldn’t sign long term with San Jose (I assume they offered him something similar to Hertl), so unless New Jersey was allowed to talk to him before the trade, they have no way of knowing they won’t run into the similar issues when they try to sign him. They're taking a risk on his willingness to sign with them. It’s the same risk as trading for a pending UFA that you’re hoping to sign, because they need to sign him before June 25 to avoid starting the process that could lead to him becoming a UFA. The only difference with Meier is one year at $10M. That’s why the return is closer to what you’d see for a pending UFA and doesn’t include any of the Devils’ top prospects. It’s a big package, but nothing that’ll hurt them if he walks in 2024. They’re hoping for the best, but planning for the worst (as you can see from the pick protections for near-impossible scenarios).

No one is saying it isn't rare. Meier is a top line winger on a bad team and has 30+ goals in less than 60 games. He's an RFA in his prime. He's not trash. The trash went from the Devils to SJS.

You guys won the trade man, congrats. Sharks got 4 guys, two of which probably will be back in Sweden in 2 years. The other two, one MIGHT play more than 5 years with them.

The picks have so much insurance and language built in I had to sent it to my lawyer for review.

SJS didn't extend an offer because they saw no point. Management in San Jose is incompetent.

The issue was the “perceived value” was far off historical norms. Happens every year.

Just use comps, people!

I don’t think anyone is suggesting Meier isn’t a top winger. But top wingers are traded every year…without returning top-prospects. San Jose wasn’t even negotiating a new contract with Meier. It was always going to be a trade. And if you are Grier and are offered….

CAR: Morrow, 1st, 2nd
VGK: Dean, Korczak, 1st
NJD: (above deal)

….what do you take?

For those deals above, CARs. Morrow is more interesting/better to me than Mukha.
Mukha MIGHT be the only part of this deal playing with the Sharks after 2 years. Morrow would be for sure imo.

It's also unclear to me where the trade value of 50% retention and taking a cap dump is.

You're right btw, Grier is so dumb he wasn't even looking at a new contract for Meier beyond their initial request.

Not every year does an arguable top 10 winger get traded, and when that happens, you're never going to get a good amount, especially an RFA one. I'd think the comparable for Meier would be a Tkachuk type return, and this is nowhere near that.

Yeah, I'm not sure why both Johnsson and the 50% were included (or frankly why so many extra pieces ended up in there).

LeBrun said today that Carolina's final offer had six pieces including a 1st, 2nd and four prospects not named Nikishin.
If two were Morrow and Blake, it sounds like it could have been a competitive offer.

But I'd imagine Muk was a lot more appealing than Morrow (its the skating that separates them).

Grier was looking for futures package. Tkachuk was dealt for two rentals and a pick. It is not a fitting comp to use here.

I'm just saying you can't really trade an elite eligible RFA player and get a fair return unless it's a trade like the Tkachuk one.

Let me ask you, do you think NJD really gave up much? Especially if he resigns?

The issue for most SJS fans (or maybe just me) is that the deal could have been so much better for both teams versus just one team.

Unless the picks are knockouts, which I doubt (SJS really hasn't had the best scouting department, but were decent until Grier let a lot of them go), you could argue none of these pieces are on the roster in 2 years.

Agree. Hindsight is needed to evaluate this deal and folks are oversimplifying tremendously

First we need to see NJD win 2 playoff rounds this year or next (I think they will), then the deal becomes more fair for SJ. It's really a necessity for SJ at this point (go Devils!)
Next we need to see how Mukhamadullin and Holtz develop and are utilized over the next few years.

Holtz because I think he was part of the conversations and ultimately Grier didn't want him for both his worth and how his inclusion likely reduced the overall return. So we have to see if Holtz blows up into a star or not to see if SJ passing on Holtz was a huge mistake or if he is overrated. I bet the conditional 2nd/1st was dropped off the deal if Holtz was included over Muk.

Zetterlund is going to have a bigger role in SJ than he would in NJ. Okhotiuk is also a good piece that will be utilized by SJ sooner. People forget how much of a turd SJ's prospect pool is compared to NJ's and so a swap of minor pieces dramatically improved SJ's situation. Muk was like NJ's 4th or 5th best prospect? He is probably SJ's 2nd or 3rd best now.

Grier continues the quantity over quality approach like he did with the 11th OA 22' pick.

this is the part of the trade that pisses me off

SJ really needed that retention slot to use on someone else

I was expecting something around Mukhamadullin, 1st, 2nd, lesser prospect (like Okhotiuk).
So to that, San Jose added Zetterlund for retention, talking Johnsson and the other minor pieces.

And SJS fans gotta start getting acquainted with Muk.
Even though many Devils fans never once saw him play, usually those that did liked what they saw.