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Best offers for Ullmark

Created by: DefenseFirst
Team: 2023-24 Boston Bruins
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 13, 2023
Published: Mar. 13, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Assuming the bruins win the cup (No, I’m not proclaiming them cup champions. I realize there’s probably only a 20% chance they win it. This is a hypothetical), and decide to take a step back in the off-season. Ullmark is on the market as a reigning vezina winner at 2 years $5M, and what’s required is a legit center prospect. Retention is available for the right price. What are the best offers, and what teams would make sense? LA picked somewhat at random.
Trades
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
12$82,500,000$66,412,500$4,500,000$0$16,087,500
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$6,125,000$6,125,000
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$5,250,000$5,250,000
C, RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
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$11,250,000$11,250,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 8
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$4,750,000$4,750,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$762,500$762,500
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$6,500,000$6,500,000
LD
NTC, NMC
UFA - 7
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$9,500,000$9,500,000
RD
UFA - 7
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$3,687,500$3,687,500
LD
UFA - 1
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$4,100,000$4,100,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$1,137,500$1,137,500
LD/RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2

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Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:27 p.m.
#1
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Alex Turcotte and our 2024 first. But he'll never be on the market.
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Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:27 p.m.
#2
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This is tricky. Some teams have the goods to make a trade, but don't need him. Some would want him bad, but maybe lack the right C prospect and/or cap space to do something. LA is an obvious choice because they are competing, have need and have young Cs beyond Byfield to spare. Perhaps Seattle. Maybe Minnesota if they feel like contenders the next two season.
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Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:28 p.m.
#3
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Edited Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:33 p.m.
Quoting: OldNYIfan
Alex Turcotte and our 2024 first. But he'll never be on the market.


I fully expect him to be traded either in this off-season or the next.

Turcotte, Pinelli, and 2024 first for 50% retained Ullmark?
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Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:30 p.m.
#4
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Edited Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:37 p.m.. Reason: added a thought
Quoting: DefenseFirst
I fully expect him to be traded either in this off-season or the next.

"From your lips to God's ears," because we'll be in there bidding.

Late Edit after your similar: Yes, that offer is certainly in the ballpark.
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Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:38 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
"From your lips to God's ears," because we'll be in there bidding.

Late Edit after your similar: Yes, that offer is certainly in the ballpark.


Turcotte, pinelli, and 24 first for Ullmark 50% retained?
Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:42 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: DefenseFirst
Turcotte, pinelli, and 24 first for Ullmark 50% retained?

"Late Edit after your similar: Yes, that offer is certainly in the ballpark."
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Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:46 p.m.
#7
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Yeah LA is a good choice they have a bunch of center prospects. Turcotte doesn't look great but Jack Hughes or Pinelli.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:49 p.m.
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Quoting: Jfstompers
Yeah LA is a good choice they have a bunch of center prospects. Turcotte doesn't look great but Jack Hughes or Pinelli.


Agree that turcotte doesn’t look great, but if I’m boston he’s the kind of guy I would be eager to acquire. The talent is there, and maybe a change in scenery/culture/coaching/opportunity could help change things for him.

I think a combo of Turcotte and Pinelli with a pick could work.
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Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:51 p.m.
#9
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Honestly, I wouldn't give up much for Ullmark. He's been an average goaltender for his entire career, and all of a sudden becomes a Vezina nominee when playing for the best team in the league. How much of that is him, and how much of that is the team in front of him?

Colorado was in exactly the same situation with Grubauer a few years back. Top quality numbers on the best team in the league with Colorado. Moves to Seattle and he's been one of the single worst goaltenders in the league.

If he requires a 1st round pick (or prospect equivalent), I'd lust look for someone else on the UFA market.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:59 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Honestly, I wouldn't give up much for Ullmark. He's been an average goaltender for his entire career, and all of a sudden becomes a Vezina nominee when playing for the best team in the league. How much of that is him, and how much of that is the team in front of him?

Colorado was in exactly the same situation with Grubauer a few years back. Top quality numbers on the best team in the league with Colorado. Moves to Seattle and he's been one of the single worst goaltenders in the league.

If he requires a 1st round pick (or prospect equivalent), I'd lust look for someone else on the UFA market.


He had a .917 and a .915 his last two years in buffalo. Buffalo. That isn’t average. You’re also making it sound like he played 10 years in the league and then just broke out. He’s played 45.5% of his NHL games in boston. By years end it’ll be over 50%.

Another thing you could do is just watch a game. He’s been the best goalie in the national hockey league this season and there isn’t anyone in his rear view.
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Mar. 13, 2023 at 6:06 p.m.
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Quoting: DefenseFirst
He had a .917 and a .915 his last two years in buffalo. Buffalo. That isn’t average. You’re also making it sound like he played 10 years in the league and then just broke out. He’s played 45.5% of his NHL games in boston. By years end it’ll be over 50%.

Another thing you could do is just watch a game. He’s been the best goalie in the national hockey league this season and there isn’t anyone in his rear view.


This season he has been great. I'm not convinced that will translate to another season behind a difference defense.

I've said multiple times on this site that I don't think goaltenders are worth 1st round picks via trade or in the draft. No exceptions.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 6:07 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
This season he has been great. I'm not convinced that will translate to another season behind a difference defense.

I've said multiple times on this site that I don't think goaltenders are worth 1st round picks via trade or in the draft. No exceptions.


I completely agree with you there….but some team will pay up for a reigning vezina/cup winner.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 6:10 p.m.
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Quoting: DefenseFirst
I completely agree with you there….but some team will pay up for a reigning vezina/cup winner.


Let's not put the cart before the horse on that Cup winner title just yet. The last time in recent memory that we had a "best team in NHL history" during the regular season, they got swept in the 1st round by the Columbus Blue Jackets.

NM... I just read your description again and saw your disclaimer.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 6:12 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Let's not put the cart before the horse on that Cup winner title just yet. The last time in recent memory that we had a "best team in NHL history" during the regular season, they got swept in the 1st round by the Columbus Blue Jackets.

NM... I just read your description again and saw your disclaimer.


No worries.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 6:27 p.m.
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Honestly, I wouldn't give up much for Ullmark. He's been an average goaltender for his entire career, and all of a sudden becomes a Vezina nominee when playing for the best team in the league. How much of that is him, and how much of that is the team in front of him?

Colorado was in exactly the same situation with Grubauer a few years back. Top quality numbers on the best team in the league with Colorado. Moves to Seattle and he's been one of the single worst goaltenders in the league.

If he requires a 1st round pick (or prospect equivalent), I'd lust look for someone else on the UFA market.


This is why advanced statistics/analytics exist so we can isolate the team's impact of the player's individual level of play. Bruins have been a top team and Ullmark has been a top2 goalie as well. Grubauer always was an average or above-average goalie in Colorado and got much worse (behind a strong defensive team in Seattle).
Mar. 13, 2023 at 6:34 p.m.
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Quoting: bhavikp27
This is why advanced statistics/analytics exist so we can isolate the team's impact of the player's individual level of play. Bruins have been a top team and Ullmark has been a top2 goalie as well. Grubauer always was an average or above-average goalie in Colorado and got much worse (behind a strong defensive team in Seattle).


🙄
Mar. 13, 2023 at 6:53 p.m.
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Besides LA, maybe Edmonton I like Bourgault

Not sure if Holloway or Lavoie project to play center at the nhl level but also options
Mar. 13, 2023 at 6:54 p.m.
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Quoting: bhavikp27
This is why advanced statistics/analytics exist so we can isolate the team's impact of the player's individual level of play. Bruins have been a top team and Ullmark has been a top2 goalie as well. Grubauer always was an average or above-average goalie in Colorado and got much worse (behind a strong defensive team in Seattle).


Solid disagree on this one. Goaltenders don't play in a vacuum, and GSVAx stats are too heavily based on "danger chances" which are entirely based on where the shot originated on the ice. In most cases, the advanced statistics/analytics for goaltenders are just as heavily skewed by the team defense as they are by the goaltender.

So is it more likely that Grubauer just forgot how to play goalie all of a sudden, or that he just doesn't do as well behind an inferior Seattle team than he did behind an exceptional Colorado team?
Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:02 p.m.
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What team trades a Vezina winner that has 2 years left on a contract at $5m/season? Do you think Buffalo wishes they had paid him? It's absurd.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:04 p.m.
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Quoting: Onlyfairtrades1
What team trades a Vezina winner that has 2 years left on a contract at $5m/season? It's absurd.


Vegas?
Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:14 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Vegas?


For a 36 year old and it was still a bad decision. Ulmark is 29.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:14 p.m.
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Quoting: Onlyfairtrades1
For a 36 year old and it was still a bad decision. Ulmark is 29.


Not saying it wasn't, just that it happened.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:20 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: Onlyfairtrades1
What team trades a Vezina winner that has 2 years left on a contract at $5m/season? Do you think Buffalo wishes they had paid him? It's absurd.


Teams that aren’t going to be good for the duration of his contract.

Perhaps you have not noticed this, but if boston wins the cup per the description, they will very likely lose their top two centermen with no replacements, and no cap.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:21 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: DefenseFirst
Teams that aren’t going to be good for the duration of his contract.

Perhaps you have not noticed this, but if boston wins the cup per the description, they will very likely lose their top two centermen with no replacements, and no cap.


LOL...yeah, I'm sure the Bruins will suck. Please.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:22 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Solid disagree on this one. Goaltenders don't play in a vacuum, and GSVAx stats are too heavily based on "danger chances" which are entirely based on where the shot originated on the ice. In most cases, the advanced statistics/analytics for goaltenders are just as heavily skewed by the team defense as they are by the goaltender.

So is it more likely that Grubauer just forgot how to play goalie all of a sudden, or that he just doesn't do as well behind an inferior Seattle team than he did behind an exceptional Colorado team?


The location of the shot is an important factor but there are other elements. "just as heavily skewed by the team defense" is a bit exagerated.

Again, Seattle was great defensively last season and Grubauer had a slightly higher workload yet he was much worse. Players evolve, they can be good now and bad the next season (see Jeff Skinner going from 2nd liner to 4th liner to 1st liner) and the opposite too.

While I agree it's not perfect, it's the best option right now IMO over SV% or GAA which doesn't isolate team's impact at all and we could say 'he's a good goalie because he's on a good team' and 'bad goalie because of bad team' about every goaltender.
 
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