Team: 2023-24 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 4, 2023

Published: Apr. 4, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

1 ---- He has a Qualifying Offer of 9 million.



>>> If he doesn't receive his qualifying offer and DeBrincat is not signed beforehand, he becomes a UFA this summer.

>>> Ottawa has until July 3rd to submit his qualifying offer with July 3rd being the first Monday after the 2023 NHL draft.

>>> If he is signed to his qualifying offer of 9 million, he will become a UFA in the summer of next year for having 7 accrued seasons as an NHL player.



2. He is a right shot LW capable of scoring 40 goals a season.




>>> There aren't many of those in today's NHL.

>>> He has scored 26 this season playing with Shane Pinto as opposed to someone more electric offensively like Tim Stutzle.

>>> His head coach is someone who doesn't allow him to "play to his strengths".



3. The case of Filip Forsberg




>>> Filip Forsberg is another right shot LW capable of scoring 40 goals.

>>> He has only scored 19 this season so far.

>>> Last year, Forsberg threatened to leave as a UFA unless the Nashville Predators paid up.

>>> He eventually signed an 8 year extension at 8.5 million per with Nashville.

>>> A player on the Ottawa Senators making 9 million is taxed more than a million more than a player on the Nashville Predators making 8.5 million.

>>> Using that metric alone, signing DeBrincat to 9 million per year becomes an even greater possibility.



4. The case of Cole Caufield




>>> Both Caufield and DeBrincat are 5 foot 7 Americans in their early 20s , shoot right, play LW, can easily score 25 goals a season and will play on your 1st powerplay unit.

>>> Both Caufield and DeBrincat will become RFAs this summer.

>>> Using metrics like point production and ice time, DeBrincat has shown to be the better player this season compared to Caufield.

>>> If Montreal ends up signing Caufield to ~8 million per year and DeBrincat is still not yet signed by Ottawa, then an extension at ~9 million per year for DeBrincat becomes more likely.




5. We have invested so much already in Alex DeBrincat.




>>> We spent the #7 and #39 overall picks in the 2022 NHL draft as well as a 3rd round pick to acquire DeBrincat in the first place.

>>> If we trade DeBrincat to another team, we will end up getting "pennies on the dollar".

>>> An investment is a lot better than a sunk cost.

>>> That is why the Ottawa Senators would be better served if DeBrincat is signed long-term as an investment than if DeBrincat was traded away as a sunk cost.

>>> If he ends up being signed to roughly 9 million per year, then it is what it is.

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