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Dubois to MTL is inevitable

Created by: What_do_i_know
Team: 2022-23 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 12, 2023
Published: Apr. 12, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I don't know if theres many Habs fans out there who want to trade Florida's first for Dubois (including myself) when it seems written in the stars that he's going to be coming to MTL one way or the other but putting myself in the shoes of an NHL front office, when you have the opportunity to make your team better for both the near and long-term future you have to take it.

Such as the Rams said **** dem picks, the Habs have enough prospects cooking through the juniors, NCAA and Laval and although Florida's pick could be something nice, its not guaranteed to be a top 6 if not top 3 player such as Dubois so you take it.

Attracting talent to Montreal is difficult on its own with the media, weather, income tax and language barrier so when theres someone of Dubois' caliber willing to come you don't walk you run.

Fingers crossed this isn't Drouin 2.0.
Trades
MTL
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc
Additional Details:
Dubois comes with an extension at something like 7x7M or 6x7.5M
WPG
  1. Dvorak, Christian
  2. Norlinder, Mattias
  3. 2023 1st round pick (FLA)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
27$82,500,000$78,419,999$1,132,500$5,515,000$4,080,001
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LW
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C
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M-NTC, NMC
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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$897,500$897,500 (Performance Bonus$25,000$25K)
RW, LW
RFA - 3
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
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$750,000$750,000
LW, RW
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RW, LW
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C
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$750,000$750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$750,000$750,000
C, RW
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$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 1
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$4,875,000$4,875,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
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$2,875,000$2,875,000
G
UFA - 1
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$875,000$875,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
RD
RFA - 2
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
LD/RD
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$766,667$766,667
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$842,500$842,500 (Performance Bonus$507,500$508K)
LD/RD
RFA - 1
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$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$750,000$750,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
RW, LW
RFA - 3
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$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 4
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$880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$6,375,000$6,375,000
C, LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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LD/RD
RFA - 2
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1

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Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:43 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: dgibb10
Better than suzuki


Suzuki: 23, faces the toughest matchups, terrible quality of team-mates and actually defensively responsible.

Dubois: 24, sheltered 2C minutes in 5v5 scenarios, very unappealing defensive metrics playing in a very talented top 6 on a contending team.

The comparison isn't close, sadly.
Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:46 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: EvanderKanesLawyer
Suzuki: 23, faces the toughest matchups, terrible quality of team-mates and actually defensively responsible.

Dubois: 24, sheltered 2C minutes in 5v5 scenarios, very unappealing defensive metrics playing in a very talented top 6 on a contending team.

The comparison isn't close, sadly.


PLD plays with 40 goal scorer Kyle Connor

Suzuki plays with AHL bums Ylonen and Hoffman

Imagine comparing the two
Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:46 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: dgibb10
Better than suzuki


why are u in every thread absolutely meatriding windjammer like he'll give u some sort of recognition lmao

either that or this is his alt.

hey windjammer!
Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:48 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: dougford
why are u in every thread absolutely meatriding windjammer like he'll give u some sort of recognition lmao

either that or this is his alt.

hey windjammer!


Its jfresh. He's both of them. the terrible takes are a dead giveaway with a reliance on flawed metrics as a crutch
Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:50 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: EvanderKanesLawyer
Suzuki: 23, faces the toughest matchups, terrible quality of team-mates and actually defensively responsible.

Dubois: sheltered 2C minutes in 5v5 scenarios, very unappealing defensive metrics playing in a very talented top 6 on a contending team.

The comparison isn't close, sadly.


Dubois is 24 so I don't know what your point is there.

Suzuki is the one who's been getting caved in analytically most of the year (even when playing with caufield and I keep getting told matheson savard edmundson guhle xhekaj kovacevic and Harris are ALL valuable quality defensemen)

Suzuki is at best a wash with Dubois.
Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:50 p.m.
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Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great
PLD plays with 40 goal scorer Kyle Connor

Suzuki plays with AHL bums Ylonen and Hoffman

Imagine comparing the two


Suzuki played with caufield half the year and was still getting caved analytically
Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:50 p.m.
#32
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Let's use logic to break this down.

PLD is gonna sign a one year deal, likely at 8 million. Winnipeg starts the year with him.

They're either in the playoff race and keep him as an own rental OR they are out of the race and have to sell off.

In a rental deal his 8 AAV becomes a problem for any contender, so they likely have to eat half of it or pay a third team as a broker. Horvat is the closest comparable BUT the Isles had a contract extension already known at the time of the trade. Any team taking PLD wont have that, so you're likely left with less then what Horvat got.

That likely means you're getting a late 1st and a 2nd.

Basically take what you can get from MTL in a deep draft or be stuck with an underwhelming return at the TDL.
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Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:52 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: dougford
why are u in every thread absolutely meatriding windjammer like he'll give u some sort of recognition lmao

either that or this is his alt.

hey windjammer!


Windjammer the known devils fan
Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:54 p.m.
#34
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Friends, take it ez.

To comment, Dubois is not a superstar no, superstars make a lot more dollars but you can ice a very competitive team without a "superstar".

Caufield might score 45 and still not be a "Superstar". Look at the Hurricanes, is Aho a "superstar"? i dont think so.

And the fact that he's not better than suzuki might be correct but he is better than Dach which is what makes bringing him to montreal so good imo. It gives you the liberty to play Dach top line with suzuki and caufield or move Dubois to the wing if necessary and play that role. Obviously not the same or close but its like how Edmonton has McDavid, Draisaitl RNH and can move those three around and make powerlines and all sorts of fun stuff.

The habs are not trading Beck so whoever is screaming for that to happen please stop.

The jets do have leverage because they can sign him to a 1yr and send him to a contender and have him there as a rental and possibly get a similar or slightly better return but the habs could also improve the offer to include Kidney over Norlinder or strubble or engstrom or a number of other prospects.

With a dubois to MTL, i can see the lines looking something like

Caufield Suzuki Dach
Slaf Dubois Andy

i like that top 6 with the potential to move some pieces around.
Apr. 12, 2023 at 12:55 p.m.
#35
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Edited Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:02 p.m.
Quoting: dgibb10
Dubois is 24 so I don't know what your point is there.

Suzuki is the one who's been getting caved in analytically most of the year (even when playing with caufield and I keep getting told matheson savard edmundson guhle xhekaj kovacevic and Harris are ALL valuable quality defensemen)

Suzuki is at best a wash with Dubois.


This is actually a very bad and incorrect take.

Suzuki getting caved in might have something to do with him playing with, I don't know, the entire Laval Rocket team? His QoC is double that of Dubois, who gets his 5v5 placements and minutes handed to him on a golden platter, as well as playing in a top 6 that's extremely talented.

Even with Caufield (who Is not a defensive player, so your argument there holds no merit), who has the other winger been, Joel Armia? Hoffman? You listed a bunch of young, Montreal defensemen as if the entire team hasn't been injured and trying to tank for Bedard. A bunch of those players are also in their rookie years.
You also listed... Edmundson?... as if he's good? Your argument is all over the place.

Both average around 60 points, but Suzuki is much more defensively responsible and capable of playing against a high QoC, while PLD is not. He's sheltered, and in fact, NOT better than Suzuki lmao.
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Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:08 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: EvanderKanesLawyer
This is actually a very bad an incorrect take.

Suzuki getting caved in might have something to do with him playing with, I don't know, the entire Laval Rocket team? His QoC is double that of Dubois, who gets his 5v5 placements and minutes handed to him on a golden platter, as well as playing in a top 6 that's extremely talented.

Even with Caufield (who Is not a defensive player, so your argument there holds no merit), who has the other winger been, Joel Armia? Hoffman? You listed a bunch of young, Montreal defensemen as if the entire team hasn't been injured and trying to tank for Bedard. A bunch of those players are also in their rookie years.
You also listed... Edmundson?... as if he's good? Your argument is all over the place.

Both average around 60 points, but Suzuki is much more defensively responsible and capable of playing against a high QoC, while PLD is not. He's sheltered, and in fact, NOT better than Suzuki lmao.


montreal fans spent the entire deadline claiming Edmundson was worth a 1st round pick.

His most common linemates on the year are still caufield and dach (360 minutes and 50.5% xgoals with that group). You can look at his gamelogs before caufield got hurt. Suzuki at 18/46 games above 50% xgoals.
The most common line PLD has had this year is, wait this can't be right, its Wheeler and Perfetti (165 minutes 50.7% xgoals).
Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:09 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: dgibb10
montreal fans spent the entire deadline claiming Edmundson was worth a 1st round pick.

His most common linemates on the year are still caufield and dach (360 minutes and 50.5% xgoals with that group). You can look at his gamelogs before caufield got hurt. Suzuki at 18/46 games above 50% xgoals.
The most common line PLD has had this year is, wait this can't be right, its Wheeler and Perfetti (165 minutes 50.7% xgoals).


Great, now base these metrics around QoC and QoT, not just line mates.

You're still forgetting that one player is sheltered and the other isn't lmfao.
Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:09 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: dgibb10
Better than suzuki


Debatable at best.
Suzuki produces at a slightly higher rate despite relatively even deployment and plays in all situations.
Dubois scores a little more with 60% offensive starts and doesn't kill penalties.
Suzuki also has 145 games less experience. He could very well widen that production gap significantly with almost another 2 seasons. Especially if he increases his pace and him and Caufield pick up where they left off.
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Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:11 p.m.
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Quoting: ricochetii
Debatable at best.
Suzuki produces at a slightly higher rate despite relatively even deployment and plays in all situations.
Dubois scores a little more with 60% offensive starts and doesn't kill penalties.
Suzuki also has 145 games less experience. He could very well widen that production gap significantly with almost another 2 seasons. Especially if he increases his pace and him and Caufield pick up where they left off.


The caufield Suzuki combination wasn't great analytically and was carried by unsustainable shooting luck
Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:21 p.m.
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Quoting: EvanderKanesLawyer
Great, now base these metrics around QoC and QoT, not just line mates.

You're still forgetting that one player is sheltered and the other isn't lmfao.


The gap in advanced metrics this year is massive (looking at evolving hockey [which can be flawed in cases where a team/player has unsustainable shooting luck as it uses goals not xgoals for offensive metrics])

PLD: 13.7 GAR 2.3 WAR
Suzuki: 5.9 GAR 1 WAR

Suzuki does play harder comp with worse teammates. But he performs MASSIVELY worse in said situation. Again, at best its a wash, they're both 2Cs
Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:26 p.m.
#41
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Quoting: dgibb10
The caufield Suzuki combination wasn't great analytically and was carried by unsustainable shooting luck


How strange for a team with half a dozen rookie defenders and so many veteran injuries throughout the lineup, to have poor analytics.
Absolutely shocking to see someone apply analytics devoid of context.
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Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:36 p.m.
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Quoting: dgibb10
Better than suzuki


lmao what
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Apr. 12, 2023 at 1:52 p.m.
#43
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Quoting: dgibb10
The gap in advanced metrics this year is massive (looking at evolving hockey [which can be flawed in cases where a team/player has unsustainable shooting luck as it uses goals not xgoals for offensive metrics])

PLD: 13.7 GAR 2.3 WAR
Suzuki: 5.9 GAR 1 WAR

Suzuki does play harder comp with worse teammates. But he performs MASSIVELY worse in said situation. Again, at best its a wash, they're both 2Cs


Yeah, I'm going to agree with Rico. You're parroting the same analytics while avoiding all context.

If you put PLD in the exact same situation as Suzuki, he's getting caved in nightly. Worse than Suks.

PLD is less valuable in that he mainly gets offensive zone starts and doesn't kill penalties. All that 200-ft game just to be below mediocre defensively with sheltered minutes.
Suzuki also has, like Rico said, 145 games less experience. Which can fill the gap quickly once Montreal exits their rebuild. Which again, might have somethign to do with the bad metrics, don't you think?

Not even a close comparison my friend.
Apr. 12, 2023 at 2:10 p.m.
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Quoting: ricochetii
How strange for a team with half a dozen rookie defenders and so many veteran injuries throughout the lineup, to have poor analytics.
Absolutely shocking to see someone apply analytics devoid of context.


I've been told that Barron Matheson Savard Edmundson Xhehaj Guhle are all quality defenders worth a combined 8 1sts according to habs fans
Apr. 12, 2023 at 2:26 p.m.
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Quoting: EvanderKanesLawyer
Yeah, I'm going to agree with Rico. You're parroting the same analytics while avoiding all context.

If you put PLD in the exact same situation as Suzuki, he's getting caved in nightly. Worse than Suks.

PLD is less valuable in that he mainly gets offensive zone starts and doesn't kill penalties. All that 200-ft game just to be below mediocre defensively with sheltered minutes.
Suzuki also has, like Rico said, 145 games less experience. Which can fill the gap quickly once Montreal exits their rebuild. Which again, might have somethign to do with the bad metrics, don't you think?

Not even a close comparison my friend.


That is a claim based solely in speculation and homerism.

Dubois has massively better metrics as of right now. All I hear from habs fans about any single player is that "their metrics are bad bc of the team around them".

I hear this about: Anderson, Caufield, Dach, Suzuki, Matheson (who actually has solid metrics), Guhle, Edmundson, Savard, Barron (who has good metrics), Dvorak, etc etc etc.

If your defense are all good but held back by the team around them (forwards) how can your forwards also be good but held back by your dmen. It simply doesn't add up
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Apr. 12, 2023 at 2:34 p.m.
#46
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Quoting: dgibb10
I've been told that Barron Matheson Savard Edmundson Xhehaj Guhle are all quality defenders worth a combined 8 1sts according to habs fans


Without context.

Barron and Guhle were drafted in the 1st and still hold that value in potential, if not more based on performance and need.
Matheson's value has risen just as Edmundson's has fallen. You can guess which one is worth a 1st at this point.
Savard has been up and down, but his value to the team as a reliable veteran RHD partner for our youth means we can't afford to part with him unless it's for a 1st or more.
Xhekaj's value is debatable, but he's unique and worth holding onto unless perhaps there's an overpay involved.

Being worth a 1st doesn't matter if they aren't on the block.
Only Edmundson is considered "for sale" and being worth a 1st is a valuation which precedes his recent performance and health status.
With a lot of the value for the rest based on potential and need, their price is currently high but could decline if potential isn't realized or need decreases.
Matheson is the only one who's value of a 1st is actually tied to his performance. One excellent performer isn't enough to have a drastic impact on a team's analytics. See Karlsson.
Apr. 12, 2023 at 2:41 p.m.
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Quoting: ricochetii
Without context.

Barron and Guhle were drafted in the 1st and still hold that value in potential, if not more based on performance and need.
Matheson's value has risen just as Edmundson's has fallen. You can guess which one is worth a 1st at this point.
Savard has been up and down, but his value to the team as a reliable veteran RHD partner for our youth means we can't afford to part with him unless it's for a 1st or more.
Xhekaj's value is debatable, but he's unique and worth holding onto unless perhaps there's an overpay involved.

Being worth a 1st doesn't matter if they aren't on the block.
Only Edmundson is considered "for sale" and being worth a 1st is a valuation which precedes his recent performance and health status.
With a lot of the value for the rest based on potential and need, their price is currently high but could decline if potential isn't realized or need decreases.
Matheson is the only one who's value of a 1st is actually tied to his performance. One excellent performer isn't enough to have a drastic impact on a team's analytics. See Karlsson.


I'm glad to hear you admit that Montreal's defense are significantly worse than what has been claimed by habs fans all year.

Apparently significantly worse than the core of: Morrissey Pionk, Demelo Dillon, Schmit Samberg.

Unfortunately the gap in performance this year is still so significant that I'd rather have dubois, but it doesn't particularly matter as they are both 2Cs
Apr. 12, 2023 at 3:52 p.m.
#48
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Quoting: dgibb10
That is a claim based solely in speculation and homerism.

Dubois has massively better metrics as of right now. All I hear from habs fans about any single player is that "their metrics are bad bc of the team around them".

I hear this about: Anderson, Caufield, Dach, Suzuki, Matheson (who actually has solid metrics), Guhle, Edmundson, Savard, Barron (who has good metrics), Dvorak, etc etc etc.

If your defense are all good but held back by the team around them (forwards) how can your forwards also be good but held back by your dmen. It simply doesn't add up


It’s almost as if i’m talking hockey to somebody who just started watching the game yesterday.

Dubois stinks defensively. Suzuki stinks defensively but has a farm team behind him.
None of the defenseman you listed have “good metrics” aside from Matheson.

One of the players is sheltered, the other is not.

Suzuki >dubois i fear.
Apr. 12, 2023 at 3:55 p.m.
#49
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Quoting: dgibb10
Better than suzuki


LOL what am I reading
Apr. 12, 2023 at 3:56 p.m.
#50
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Quoting: EvanderKanesLawyer
It’s almost as if i’m talking hockey to somebody who just started watching the game yesterday.

Dubois stinks defensively. Suzuki stinks defensively but has a farm team behind him.
None of the defenseman you listed have “good metrics” aside from Matheson.

One of the players is sheltered, the other is not.

Suzuki >dubois i fear.


Suzuki stunk when he had an NHL team around him. You keep pretending his analytics were good when caufield was healthy but they weren't
 
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