Quoting: Hockey_Mind
Late 1st rounders are a crap shoot in general. I get that this is a great draft at the top and deep through the first 20 picks or so, so there is a chance a landing a good player there, but it's still far from a slam dunk. It's just enticing enough that I think it could make another team bite.
Mateychuk and Svozil should only be one more year away IMO, and Svozil could be getting NHL minutes this year already. A bridge player to those guys would be for 1-2 years, but I think a dman on a 3-year term could be acceptable too depending on who it is.
I like the idea of bringing in Murphy to play on the top pair with Z to allow Jiricek to ease in, then Murph can be slotted on the second pair when Jiricek ascends, but a guy like him with experience, style fit, 3 years left and great off-ice characteristics will probably cost 22OA or Ceulemans. I know it's somewhat of a risk, but it's equally a risk to bet on either of those players (22OA or Ceulemans) panning out. Waiting on either of them also pushes back the contention window, which is a cost in itself.
While I agree in a sense that a 1-2 year bridge on the left side absolutely is not worth 22OA, the Jackets also have to be careful not to get committed there long-term and end up blocking Mateychuk and Svozil from being able to get those minutes if they've earned them. Both Matey and Svozil can play the right side as well, so there's flexibility, but if we're bringing in two top-4 defensemen this year, one is probably going to be signed for 3+ years and the other is probably going to be a 1-year bridge.
I'm hoping for Murphy and Grzelcyk, but there are other good options out there too. If they're dealing 22OA plus some other stuff for Hanafin, it would absolutely have to come with an extension, and would also limit what they're able to do to improve the right side.
Fans definitely have miscalculated expectations for late 1sts weighted by some excellent hits in that range. Pastrnak, Kulich, Boeser, Barzal, K'Andre Miller being really loud points that stand out. I think it's useful to look back at those drafts and try to guess who would have been a guaranteed better pick in the range behind them. Jarmo hasn't hit any homeruns but Foudy and Chinakov don't look bad (not perfect by any means) considering who was drafted behind them. Still a lot of time to tell.
I don't mind 22 OA as a bridge but it has to be the right player (I'm not convinced there are many left that are also worth 22OA after Chychrun, Ekholm were dealt and Gavrikov wanting "too much term"). We need veteran talent that can provide a stable learning platform for rookies and that will provide a lot of value. We've seen what it looks like when we throw rookies to the wolves without proper support (Cole Sillinger drowning this last year, Jake Bean and Adam Boqvist the year before). We have a young center corps and a young d corps and that makes success very hard to come by. Rookies make mistakes and if there are too many rookies making too many mistakes it creates a sort of gravity that their skill can't overcome and a playstyle that is heard to learn from. Giving just a bit more veterancy will give us a return on investment. Think of it this way, you're paying 22OA to make it more likely that Jiricek, Svozil, Mateychuk but also Cole Sillinger, 3OA, Kent Johnson hit their ceilings. A player with deep playoff experience (Cam Fowler, Ryan McDonagh, Nick Leddy, despite their varying abilities at their ages) can simply be a calming factor that reassures these young players that they are, in fact, good enough to be here.
In terms of long term picture, I would like a Werenski partner (the Grzelcyk to McAvoy, Lindgren to Fox, Walman to Seider, Toews to Makar). I don't think Peeke or Boqvist are it. Blankenburg could be, but his injuries are costing valuable development time. I think, in time, Jiricek will be better served playing away from him and dominating his own pair (theoretically paired with Mateychuk for matchups or Svozil for offence). I can see 22OA being used to find a really good partner for Z considering Jarmo missed out completely on John Marino.
I like making the pick at 22 also. I don't think Jarmo makes a trade for the sake of making the trade. I think he and Davidson realize that we aren't trying to contend for only the next 5 years. I especially like it if we can get Simashev or Wallinder.
If we can get Carson Soucy in FA we can easily double his projected cap hit. Unfortunately, I don't think you can really construct a plan around a FA unless you have prior knowledge.