Don't think there's a Bedard trade out there that the hawks would accept

Fantilli is going to be a stud, I don't think Anaheim should trade both Fantilli and Zegras for Bedard. I also don't think Chicago should give up Bedard since they just completed their first year of the rebuild and need a superstar to build around.

I would agree, although I think having both Fantilli and Carlsson or maybe Michkov (down the road) could further advance the rebuild down the road. The offer would at least be intriguing but I think most GMs would play it safe if they were in KD's position.

I also think that Bedard is probably a whole lot marketable than any of them individually and possibly any combination of pairs.

As for Anaheim trading Zegras, they probably shouldn't do that but who knows maybe CBJ could make it worthwhile and perhaps having Bedard+Tavish as a duo would make up for missing out on Zegras' amazing plays.

I'd rather have Zegras over 3rd overall to be honest. And then I also still probably wouldn't do it

Chicago can't trade Bedard at this point, because Bedard represents hope.

Anaheim wouldn't do it either, even if we shipped out Zegras for 3OA, the career impacts of Fantilli AND Carlson together will be larger than Bedard.

Zegras+Fantilli > Bedard

Really? I don't like Zegras. Sure he is skilled, and he probably is one of those guys you like more when he is on your favorite team. But I just think he seems like a snot and a weasel and is way too confident. If I had to pick between Zegras or any of the top 15 ranked players in the 2023 draft, I pick the 3rd overall.

I'm confused. What are CBJ getting out of this? Just straight up trading Zegras for 3OA?

I don't think we do that. We have Kent Johnson on the roster who is wildly skilled (I don't think he has the same skill ceiling as Zegras) but shows a commitment to defending. We'd rather have Carlsson who can give us a different dimension.

I like Fantilli A LOT. But the gap between Bedard and the rest of the draft seems too large for this to even come close.

I think CHI would have to add since Zegras might be worth more than the 3OV pick by a bit, so you would like that even less.



Yeah, I think people would pretty upset in Chicago not to have Bedard.

To be fair it would be Zegras+Fantilli for Bedard+19 OV but I do think that's quite possible. Would be interesting to revisit this scenario in 5 years.

Probably another thing to consider is that they might be giving up a C who could be had at a team friendly deal in Zegras. I don't think Anaheim is close enough to take advantage of Bedard's ELC years and possibly win a cup so there's that as well.

Yeah. In hindsight, something like this could prove to be decent. But Bedard has too much upside to even consider it. Any offer would have to be absolutely gigantic, IMO.

Honestly, I think CBJ would need to add some to get Zegras. While he hasn't put up a massive amount of points yet, he's still only 22 and an established star player, who could probably be locked for 7-8Mx8 this offseason.

I saw a few ACGMs mention that JK would be open to dealing the 3OV for a 1C that is 25 or younger if they come with term. I think the motivation for CBJ is not having to wait for Carlsson to develop when they have guys like Gaudreau, Werenski Laine in their primes and under contract (in the case of Laine).

My bad, for some reason I missed 19OA. That does balance things back into the world of possibility.

I guess it comes down to, would you trade one known star player and a potential star/superstar player to gain a potential superstar/generational player and a potential top 6 player.

I do appreciate how this deal could work for all parties, it checks a lot of boxes, there was clearly thought put into this. However, I am just not sure I can see Chicago moving Bedard, the GM would be fired before the ink was dry.

I'm really not seeing how 2OA AND 3OA would be considered anything less than "Absolutely Gigantic"

Maybe it could be justified if CBJ offerered a mulligan on the Jones trade 😂.

Jarmo isn't prioritizing the next couple of years. Doesn't make sense to give up the best asset this org has ever had to go all-in on a team that hasn't made the playoffs yet.

I think we have wildly different evaluations of Zegras. He's scored 60 points over the last two years, which is fine. His underlyings, especially from allthreezones, aren't very interesting. He doesn't do the other things that win hockey games. He doesn't win faceoffs and he isn't difficult to play against. Jarmo did say a U25 center under contract but right now I don't think Zegras is a bona-fide 1C right now.

Leo Carlsson has a prospect cohort of Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk and Nicklas Backstrom. Of course there's risk but Trevor Zegras is also incredibly risky considering his D and play driving profile.

In terms of pick value 1st+19th is slightly less than 2+3 according to the Athletics draft pick value chart. When you factor the quality of players available there it's going to make a difference of course but he probably means something that certainly makes sure that CHI gets out ahead, for example getting Gibson on top for free if they are high on him.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying but I do think Zegras is much closer than Kent Johnson or Sillinger to being a bonafide 1C, and the fact that he hasn't put up a lot of points could play into JK's favor. Im sure with playing with either Laine or Gaudreau the production will come.

As for your defensive concerns, perhaps CBJ dcore could make up for his shortcomings there or if they land a defensive 2C somehow (maybe Lindholm becomes a free agent next year).

Zegras is closer, at this point, than KJ or Sillinger I agree. But JK could also just take Leo Carlsson, have a player with a very high ceiling, a well rounded profile and a degree of certainty that is about as high as it gets, and not worry about trying to fill out the roster around a flawed skillset.

Probably not Gibson, but yeah, exactly.

The Ducks have a lower xGa when Zegras is on the ice than when he is not. He's not a stud defensively, but he is not a liability either, so where exactly is this "flawed skill set" nonsense coming from?

HockeyViz has xGA/60 when Zegras is on the ice is 3.31 and without xGA/60 is 3.26.

ANA lost his minutes dramatically when he was moved away from Terry/Henrique, where they were breakeven.

.05 xGa difference per 60 comes out to what, a whopping 1.27 goals, in the entire season. Again, nothing about that screams "Flawed skill set".

You notice how his xGa jumped when he left the Terry Henrique pairing? Think that might be because he was then put with Strome? Go take a gander at Strome's xGa stats for the season, they were attrocious. We had the same problem on the back end this season with whoever got the Klingberg assignment. I get that the stats attempt to isolate for individual player impact, but when you introduce an element that is so catastrophically bad, it drags everything down with it.

I just refuted what you said. You didn't say, "His xGA was right in line with team average", you said it was better. It's not.

His EvolvingHockey RAPM puts him as very very bad. Both GA and xGA. GA he's 7th worst, xGA he's like 30th worst in the league.

His AllThreeZones stats say he's terrible at driving zone exits. His playercard there, in general, says he's good at passing too and from dangerous areas but that's about it. It makes sense that xGA ticks up with Terry who is really good at getting the puck out of the zone. Maybe he wasn't asked to do that but that's what CBJ wants from centers. If he isn't gonna help break the puck out, he's a winger.

Either way he's not worth 3OA