re William Nylander series by Devsfan25

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Tintin

Team: 2023-24 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 4, 2023

Published: Aug. 4, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

ome devs fans on capfriendly have been discussing the idea of trading for nylander. i was sceptical as to its viability so i projected the implications of such a trade out on the cap sheet below. the projections are based on this AGM series made by Devsfan25
as this is 'pegged' to the series made by Devsfan25 i port all the additional signings and contracts exactly the way Devsfan25 did in his agms, as well as the guys Devsfan25 suggest the Devils trade or walk away from.
briefly on the trade: nylander is a great player but Devsfan25 suggests the Devils trade way above comparable values for pending UFA 1st line wingers. Holtz + 1st + Palat is more in value than both the Debrincat trades, Fiala trade and Meier trade returned their respective teams
i don't like Devsfan25's idea (though i do not dislike this quite as much as i initially did) and wouldn't want the devils to do this. the cap is mostly fine, even when assuming 2/3 of all ELC performance bonuses hitting each year (which Devsfan25 didn't seem to take into account) it can be done
so the cap is probably gonna be mostly fine (at least short/mid-term). unfortunately devsfan25 suggested Luke Hughes take a bridge deal at 6m. once that is up in 2028 the Devils could be up against the cap depending on how well he and Nemec develops until then
what i really don't like is the devils betting this big on nylander vs. holtz. in 3 years i think the chances of Holtz being an outright better NHLer than Nylander are fairly good (like above 50%)
combined with giving up a potential future ELC in that pick i think the deal is made even worse. it makes the devils capabilities to contend for the cup beyond 27-28 a fair bit worse. i don't think the bet on nylander that Devsfan25 suggest devils should will be worth it in the long-run (and probably not in the medium-run either)

i should say that it makes 0 sense for the leafs to do this also, their window of contention is almost shutting down but moving Nylander out in this trade would kill any hope of this leafs core winning a cup in my opinion

Devsfan25's AGMs:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4490743
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/750841
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/750842

Trades

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$80,418,199	$422,500	$1,382,500	$3,081,801

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW NMC UFA - 1	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 7	Bratt, Jesper $7,875,000$7,875,000 RW, LW UFA - 8
Meier, Timo $8,800,000$8,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C UFA - 4	Mercer, Dawson $894,167$894,167 ($400,000$400K) RW, C RFA - 1
Clarke, Graeme $850,833$850,833 ($57,500$58K) RW, C RFA - 1	Haula, Erik $3,150,000$3,150,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 3	Toffoli, Tyler $2,125,000$2,125,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Foote, Nolan $863,333$863,333 LW RFA - 1	McLeod, Michael $1,400,000$1,400,000 C RFA - 1	Bastian, Nathan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Siegenthaler, Jonas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LD UFA - 5	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 5	Vanecek, Vitek $3,400,000$3,400,000 G UFA - 2
Hughes, Luke $925,000$925,000 ($925,000$925K) LD/RD RFA - 2	Marino, John $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD UFA - 4	Källgren, Erik $775,000$775,000 G UFA - 1
Bahl, Kevin $1,050,000$1,050,000 LD RFA - 2	Miller, Colin $1,850,000$1,850,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Lazar, Curtis $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, C UFA - 2
Nosek, Tomas $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW, C UFA - 1
Smith, Brendan $1,100,000$1,100,000 LD/RD, LW UFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Tierney, Chris $775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0) C UFA - 1
Thompson, Tyce $762,500$762,500 ($0$0$0$0) RW RFA - 1
Bowers, Shane $775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0) C RFA - 1
Halonen, Brian $925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0) LW, RW RFA - 1
Nemec, Simon $918,333$918,333 ($0$0$0$0) ($3,250,000$3M) RD RFA - 3
Hatakka, Santeri $850,833$850,833 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 1
Vilén, Topias $836,667$836,667 ($0$0$0$0) ($82,500$82K) LD RFA - 3
Schmid, Akira $850,833$850,833 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) G RFA - 1
Daws, Nico $850,833$850,833 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) G RFA - 1

Aug. 4, 2023 at 3:56 p.m.

Tintin

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,886

Likes: 4,260

cap sheet

Aug. 4, 2023 at 3:57 p.m.

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,886

Likes: 4,260

@Devsfan25 thanks for making your series. always appreciate to see and engage with devils related agms during the quietest part of the offseason.

Devsfan25 liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:00 p.m.

JAKE6

Let Him Cook

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 4,011

Likes: 962

leafs arent taking on palat and his contract. no deal

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:06 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,957

Likes: 783

All value debates aside.. Toronto is only willing to trade Nylander if a defenceman is going back the other way. This deal doesn’t have it so it wouldn’t be taken. Most likely target would be Marino, with secondary targets being Bahl or a long shot in Hughes. If this turns into a situation with a contract extension for Nylander it would likely involve a roster player to replace Nylander as well.

Hughes likely doesn’t make sense for New Jersey to love, Marino would be a tough deal unless the Devils want to rush Nemec to top 4 minutes which I don’t think they would. So that leaves Bahl as the defensive target which fits Treliving’s style of defence.

I’d say it looks something like this:

Nylander (with extension) for Bahl, Mercer, 2nd that turns into a 1st if New Jersey makes the conference finals

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:14 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,579

Likes: 22,702

Don't know why anyone what say the Leafs contention is shutting down. Even if many of the upcoming UFAs don't resign with the Leafs, well that is lots to cap to sign other UFAs.
The trade.you suggested....makes the Leafs worse this season. And Palat at 6m for four more years, that's not good value.

MitchJr and JAKE6 liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:19 p.m.

pretzelcoatl

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 5,924

Likes: 2,577

Quoting: GreatWhiteNorth

With all due respect, if you think you're getting Mercer for Nylander, nevermind other assets with him, you're delusional

Tintin liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:20 p.m.

Brad_Treliving

Joined: Oct. 2021

Posts: 3,634

Likes: 803

The first is the sweetener to get rid of Palats contract and Holtz is a bust at this point. Easy pass from Toronto (good try though)

If you want Nylander, it starts with Mercer++

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:21 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,957

Likes: 783

Quoting: pretzelcoatl

With all due respect, if you think you're getting Mercer for Nylander, nevermind other assets with him, you're delusional

Nylander is far more valuable and better than Mercer will ever be. Merced’s good and has some potential left in his game, but hell never reach the level of Nylander. & if you think Mercer is more valuable than Nylander alone, with all due respect you’re the one that’s delusional.

Brad_Treliving and MitchJr liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:22 p.m.

Brad_Treliving

Joined: Oct. 2021

Posts: 3,634

Likes: 803

Quoting: pretzelcoatl

With all due respect, if you think you're getting Mercer for Nylander, nevermind other assets with him, you're delusional

You want Nylander, pay up

Also, Mercer doesn't excite me so the Devils would have to add big time on top of Mercer

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:26 p.m.

#10

pretzelcoatl

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 5,924

Likes: 2,577

Quoting: Brad_Treliving

Also, Mercer doesn't excite me

Are we talking about the same player?

Devil liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:30 p.m.

#11

pretzelcoatl

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 5,924

Likes: 2,577

Quoting: GreatWhiteNorth

I just think that 20 year old 55 point players don't often get traded for rentals, and given the depth of talent in New Jersey extending Nylander is difficult, if not impossible. Mercer will be between 2m and 4m cheaper (7m vs. 9m/6m vs. 10m), and with Hughes, Nemec, Schmid, and Holtz being priorities to lock down, that 2m will go a very long way.

Not to mention that Toronto is gonna have to do some serious gymnastics if they want to sign Nylander, so they have little leverage in trade negotiations. It's trade him for something or lose him for nothing.

Moot point though, the Devils aren't trading for him unless it's as a deadline rental due to a major injury

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:36 p.m.

#12

TyeZerker

Joined: Jul. 2023

Posts: 1,110

Likes: 163

DUMB TRADE IMO. Nylander wants meier - Aho money, SO HUGE PASS. No thanks. Devs fans dont know anything half the time.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:39 p.m.

#13

MitchJr

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 3,497

Likes: 1,179

Quoting: pretzelcoatl

Bud, leafs literally have tons of space next year to sign Nylander, Matthews + others. And I’d bet money the Leafs finish ahead of the Devils (although both teams will be making the post deacon) so your petty jibe about Tdl acquisition of nylander was cute😅. Kudos sir 👏

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:39 p.m.

#14

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,579

Likes: 22,702

I just don't see how any this "fantasy" extension would even work. Leafs are not allowing a star player to negotiate a contract without team. It just NEVER happens that a Cup contender does this with a star player one year away from his next contract .

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:40 p.m.

#15

Ryminister_92

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,957

Likes: 783

Quoting: pretzelcoatl

With all due respect, if you think you're getting Mercer for Nylander, nevermind other assets with him, you're delusional

Quoting: pretzelcoatl

Trying to cut out all biasness here (I’m not a fan of either Toronto or New Jersey), but Nylander is the far more valuable player. Mercer is a good young player who’s only played 2 seasons in the league. At no point in his career (pro or junior) has he ever been an elite scorer or play driving forward. He’s a reliable 2way player who likely ends up a very good second liner (possibly at centre). While those are valuable players, they’re easier to find than an elite play driving forward like Nylander. When he’s on top of his game, Nylander is a top 10 play driving forward and with the way the game has developed, those types of players are rare. He’s more proven than Mercer and he’s been consistently improving every asset of his game every year of his career (now if he’d just put it together consistently, he’d be a 110 point scorer every season.

Nylander is more valuable than Mercer. & as mentioned Nylander would come with an extension. The idea that Toronto has no leverage in trade talks and have to trade him for nothing is preposterous. Tkachuk gave Calgary no leverage. PLD gave Winnipeg no leverage. DeBrincat gave Ottawa absolutely no leverage. And they all got good returns. Toronto would get a good return for Nylander.

Top 10 offensive players don’t become available that often. The market for him is high and a lot of teams are interested and that’s what determines his value.

https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1675994777194512386

Just_A_Guess liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:40 p.m.

#16

TyeZerker

Joined: Jul. 2023

Posts: 1,110

Likes: 163

Quoting: Brad_Treliving

You want Nylander, pay up

Also, Mercer doesn't excite me so the Devils would have to add big time on top of Mercer

And Nylander doesnt excites noone. Dude cant defend to save his lift. Nylander struggle more times than anyone i see. not worth much if he needs players holding his hand.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:42 p.m.

#17

Ryminister_92

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,957

Likes: 783

Quoting: TyeZerker

And Nylander doesnt excites noone. Dude cant defend to save his lift. Nylander struggle more times than anyone i see. not worth much if he needs players holding his hand.

Nylander is a top 10 offensive play driver.. doesn’t need anyone to “hold his hand” when he’s the guy creating all the scoring chances.

https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1675994777194512386

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:42 p.m.

#18

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,227

Likes: 18,366

One year of Nylander isn’t worth half some of these proposals. Luke Hughes? No chance. Nor Holtz or Mercer straight up…let alone add. We got one year of Toffoli for Sharangovich and a 3rd…any offer should be similar type of trade.

Tintin liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:46 p.m.

#19

pretzelcoatl

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 5,924

Likes: 2,577

Quoting: MitchJr

Quoting: GreatWhiteNorth

This is starting to remind me of discussion that happened around the time of the Meier trade, and we all saw how that turned out, but I digress. The main point I should have been making is that the Devils just aren't a good trade partner for Nylander. Yes, Mercer for Nylander might make sense in a vacuum, but in the real world the cap implications of trading for Nylander make it infeasible for the Devils. The only way it works is if Palat goes the other way, and even then it makes little sense to trade the youngest members of our forward group at the start of our window.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:50 p.m.

#20

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,227

Likes: 18,366

Nylander will not be dealt with an extension, so shouldn't be priced as anything but a pure rental. He is not an RFA and Devils aren’t overpaying to keep him off market.

If he is dealt, it would be in a deadline sell-off…so pick heavy and young player light. Leafs are probably making playoffs, so he finishes the year there and signs as UFA next summer.

Just_A_Guess liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:52 p.m.

#21

MitchJr

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 3,497

Likes: 1,179

Quoting: pretzelcoatl

How is nylander situation remotely similar to Meier’s? One plays for a top 5 team with ambition to win the cup this year; the other played for a tanking team in full rebuild mode. But we agree - Nylander should not (& hopefully will not) be moved unless the offer is one Tre can’t refuse. My money is that he’ll re-sign sometime before season starts. Only because it’s the centre of the hockey media universe has the nylander situation become anything more than routine negotiations between team and star player .

palhal liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:58 p.m.

#22

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,886

Likes: 4,260

Quoting: JAKE6

leafs arent taking on palat and his contract. no deal

Not the point of this AGM, neither team would do this irl.
I refer you to the title and the description of this AGM for context.

Quoting: palhal

Aging core combined with nothing much coming up in the prospect pipeline (other than Knies) I think the Leafs only have one more year left at a real shot at the cup.
Could be that Treliving manages to resign all his guys to value deal but, as ever, I don't think the Leafs teams after 2024 will have the depth scoring to make it all the way.

Especially so when the east is looking super competitive for the foreseeable future.
Canes and Devils are already cup contenders. Sabres, Detroit, Blue Jackets and the Sens will be real good if they can get their shyt together. Maybe even the Flyers in 3-4 years.
The future Leafs teams (post 2024) look more like playoff hopefuls than cup contenders to me, on paper at least. Remains to be seen.

As for the trade, I agree that it doesn't make the Leafs better and they shouldn't do this (neither should the Devils!).
This misses the point of this AGM however.

Quoting: GreatWhiteNorth

Mercer may never be as good as Nylander was this last season but I think there's a VERY good chance that in no more than 3 years Mercer will be the outright better player between the two.
Also, top 6 fwds that are still on ELCs holds more value than pending UFA wingers, even if that winger is as good as Nylander.

Quoting: Brad_Treliving

Also, Mercer doesn't excite me so the Devils would have to add big time on top of Mercer

all time classic babatunde take. love it.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 5:16 p.m.

#23

MitchJr

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 3,497

Likes: 1,179

Quoting: Tintin

Not the point of this AGM, neither team would do this irl.
I refer you to the title and the description of this AGM for context.

Aging core combined with nothing much coming up in the prospect pipeline (other than Knies) I think the Leafs only have one more year left at a real shot at the cup.
Could be that Treliving manages to resign all his guys to value deal but, as ever, I don't think the Leafs teams after 2024 will have the depth scoring to make it all the way.

Especially so when the east is looking super competitive for the foreseeable future.
Canes and Devils are already cup contenders. Sabres, Detroit, Blue Jackets and the Sens will be real good if they can get their shyt together. Maybe even the Flyers in 3-4 years.
The future Leafs teams (post 2024) look more like playoff hopefuls than cup contenders to me, on paper at least. Remains to be seen.

As for the trade, I agree that it doesn't make the Leafs better and they shouldn't do this (neither should the Devils!).
This misses the point of this AGM however.

Mercer may never be as good as Nylander was this last season but I think there's a VERY good chance that in no more than 3 years Mercer will be the outright better player between the two.
Also, top 6 fwds that are still on ELCs holds more value than pending UFA wingers, even if that winger is as good as Nylander.

all time classic babatunde take. love it.

Aging core? Matthew’s, Marner & Nylander are 26-27 🤯. What a completely uniformed take 🤦🏻

Aug. 4, 2023 at 5:20 p.m.

#24

Devil

Speak of the Devil

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 23,936

Likes: 26,436

Quoting: Brad_Treliving

You want Nylander, pay up

Also, Mercer doesn't excite me so the Devils would have to add big time on top of Mercer

You’re right, a 21 year old with 50+ points and great defensively isn’t exciting

palhal liked this.

Aug. 4, 2023 at 5:22 p.m.

#25

Ritzy

Leafs Sufferer

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 4,073

Likes: 3,511

Window is almost shutting down, 1 year left for a shot at the cup, aging core.

Very interesting takes you have here.

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