I wouldn’t let you build a roller hockey team for 10 year olds much less the Oilers.

I’d certainly do a far better job than Holland and Chiarelli

No you wouldn't. Bouchard has played better than Dobson so what's the point of that swap besides losing team chemistry? Kane isn't signing that low and definitely isn't signing in Edmonton of all places. Martin does absolutely nothing for Edmonton as well so no point in that islanders trade at all besides making Edmonton worse. I love Hart and he's worth more than Skinner but the goal is to win right now and he just has not proven he's that much better than Skinner over the past two seasons. You've made the d-core much worse, goaltending is the exact same, and the forward group is also worse?? Holland has crafted a team that gave the cup champs their best series last year.

This team is much worse.

Flyers accept the TK deal.

Flyers would accept both

There's no reason for Winnipeg to retain and downgrade.

Ya probably.

Bouchard is one dimensional. Dobson is so much better defensively. Even offensively speaking, Dobson is still better. Dobson had 53 points with the Islanders. Bouchard had 40 in a full season with the Oilers. What exactly are you going off of when you say Bouchard is better than Dobson? It’s not even close.

Even without Patrick Kane. This team is so much better than last season. The defence actually looks good now compared to what Ken Holland constructed. You get rid of Bouchard, Ceci, and Kulak. Those are three defensive liabilities. You instead add Noah Dobson, Ethan Bear, and Brendan Dillon. You clearly have no knowledge of hockey outside of Edmonton. Dillon is a massive upgrade on Kulak. He’s physical, he is a shutdown player. Ethan Bear is an upgrade on Cody Ceci. Bear is proven on both ends of the ice. Then there’s Noah Dobson. Arguably better than Bouchard offensively, and 10x better defensively. Dobson is a massive upgrade on Bouchard. The defence is not only better its head and shoulders above anything the Oilers have had in the last decade.

I don't know where you got 53 from but he had 49? Ok so he had 9 more points while getting first pp time for a full year and Bouchard only had it for a third. In that span when they received same pp time Bouchard produced at a higher rate. Dobson had a bad year last year defensively so what statistics are you going off of? They had similar statistics defensively while Dobson was in a much better defensive system. So what we have here is a swap between two players at the very most is a lateral move. A move where Edmonton gets a player who isn't familiar with the system, is worse offensively when given the same pp time and isn't much better defensively unless you can show me a metric that proves that. That was also objectively the best move you had made which does absolutely nothing for the Oilers.

Calling Ethan Bear proven on both ends of the ices is one of the funniest comments I've seen on this site. Look I love Bear he's a great guy but he wasn't good in Edmonton and there is a reason he is a ufa. Kulak is a great bottom pair d-man and was one of their best d-man over the past two years. The only upgrade is Dillion who plays the left side and not the right. Edmonton doesn't need more LD they need a good stable RD which you have failed to supply. So yes congrats you upgraded a d-man over Cody Ceci, which anyone can do. The d-core is still worse and all you have done is made the right side even worse. Dillon does nothing for us.

Let’s explain it in a way someone like you can understand. Dobson is a PP1/PK1 kind of player. Bouchard is only a PP1 kind of player. Meaning, Bouchard is one dimensional. You can maybe argue Bouchard is better offensively, but it’s not even close defensively. Dobson would automatically become the Oilers #1 penalty killer. Not only that, but Dobson would also become the Oilers #1 scoring threat on the blueline. Expected goals, he is top 15 for any defensemen last season. Bouchard isn’t even on the top 30 for expected goals for a defensemen. Also, point per 60 minutes of ice time, Dobson is top 20, and Bouchard is top 40. These are the stats that you asked for. It’s beginning to seem like you just have a secret love interest in Bouchard, I know you think the world of your lover but the truth is that he isn’t all that good. He’s like Tyson Barrie but slower.

Ethan Bear really proved himself last season as a defensively responsible defensemen who can play on the top 4. He was getting over 20 minutes a game last season. He comes at a fraction of the price of Ceci. It’s a no-brainer for the Oilers to give Bear another look. The only reason he is still a FA is because he’s going to be out with an injury until January, and there is no rush for him to sign a contract considering how he’s going to miss the first half of the season. Bear indicated that a few teams have made inquiries thus far but an offer to his liking has yet to materialize. He specifically stated a preference to return to Vancouver but was told by GM Patrik Allvin that they would need to clear up cap space for that to happen, a scenario that they are not alone in.

Noah Dobson, the noted PK1 player, averaged 0:29/gm of TOI at 4-on-5 last year. A rate which places him 6th on his team behind even Sebastian Aho (0:33/gm). It wasn't more the year before, either. Of course, he's playing on a team with a strong D corps so it's hardly unexpected but your claim isn't going to hold water on any statistical grounds due in large part to the different nature of deployment as PK1, PK2, and PK3- the latter being where both Dobson and Bouchard have been deployed.


What exactly are you referring to here: on-ice xGF, individual xG, xGF%, any of these but per-60 or relative, or some other stat? When you simply say expected goals without quoting actual totals/numbers, it can refer to a variety of different things. Please clarify.

EDIT: In the interest of clarity, I'm coming into this discussion in support of the claim made by the other guy that "So what we have here is a swap between two players at the very most is a lateral move". Perhaps not as firm on the "at very most" part but very much of the mind that it's a lateral move.

Wow, this is a mess.

Geez that'd be such a bad trade for the Islanders, cant see even Lou doing that.

Wait, so Bouchard + McLeod + Ceci + 1st is only worth Dobson+ Matt Martin?

Skinner > Hart

Why is Edmonton adding a 1st + 2 prospects??

ixG/60: tied
On ice xGF: Bouchard > Dobson
On ice xGF/60: Bouchard > Dobson
On ice xGF/60 Rel: Bouchard > Dobson
On ice GF%: Bouchard > Dobson

Besides that, a look at the xGA stats indicates that Bouchard is significantly better defensively too.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&p1=8480803&p2=8480865&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

I'd also say it's a moot point because I don't see any world where that Islanders trade could happen - before you even get into arguing the value of players in it, I don't see a way for the Isles to send out $5.7M in AAV (Dobson + Martin) while taking back $8.75M (Konecny + Ceci), considering they're basically at the cap as we speak.

Beyond that, one of the glaring needs this team has right now is for a puck-moving defenseman. It was an issue last year and will still be somewhat of an issue this year. Trading one of the few guys with the potential to do that for a guy who really doesn't in Ceci isn't worth the top-6 upgrade Konecny would give you, IMO

Significantly better defensively? We’re talking about Evan Bouchard, a player who scored 17 points in 12 games in the playoffs, but finished off with a +/- of -4. Now, compare that to Morgan Reilly who finished a point per game in the playoffs, his +/- was +12. If you’re saying Bouchard is significantly better than Dobson defensively. Then u are also saying to me that Morgan Reilly was a god defensively.

Also, it’s worth noting that Dobsons plus minus in the playoffs was positive despite only having two points and losing in the first round.

You haven't deleted this thread yet? I'm surprised.

What I'm not surprised by is you using tiny sample sizes and +/- (!!) in your argument.

And you still haven't answered @SupremeBone question about expected goals.

Expected goals?? As per the 2022/2023 regular season. Noah Dobson is at a 9.7 for expected goals. Making him top 15 in the league for any defensemen. Evan Bouchard expected goals is at 7.9. Making him top 40 in the league for any defensemen.

The reason I haven’t responded to Supremebone is because he brought up the most useless advanced statistic possible. He brings up ‘on ice expected goals %’ acting like it’s close to the same as ‘expected goals’. Obviously Bouchard is going to have one of the highest on ice expected goals % when he’s playing with 97/29. Calvin De Haan is top 10 for that exact statistic. Does that mean Calvin De Haan is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league? Is that seriously what he’s trying to suggest to me?

If you look at the relevant stats analysts look at such as ‘Goals Above Expected’ and ‘Expected Goals’. You will see a more accurate picture of who the top offensive defensemen in the league actually are, and Dobson is ahead of him by a mile in any relevant statline. Smh. Just go look at actual regular season points and see who had more points. Dobson 78 games 49 points on a team that finished 21st in Goals For. Bouchard 82 games 40 points on a team that finished 1st place in Goals For. The numbers are there, the numbers do not lie. Bouchard is not an elite offensive defensemen. He’s just another Tyson Barrie. He’s not a legit top line Defensemen. Noah Dobson is a legit top line Defensemen. Hate to say it but all the real numbers back me up in this argument.

9.7 what? 7.9 what? Those aren't their respective expected goal numbers. I think you're just making **** up because NST contradicts everything you say. And they're the leading authority on xG and similar stats.

Actually, NST backs up everything I am saying. You just don’t know how to use it. Go on individual stats, and filter it to show defensemens only in the regular season for any situation.

Also, if you want to see precise expected goals. Refer to moneypuck.com and scroll onto players. It will show you everything. Filter it to show regular season any situation. Expected goals, goals above expected, you name it. Dobson is a superior defenseman in both ends of the ice.