There is a lot of debate on CF over what Nylander is truly worth, and what his next contract should look like.
So to get a couple matters put of the way.
1. Nylander is one of the top 10 RW in the NHL. I don't think there is much of an argument there.
2. He has shown up during the playoffs.... hard to argue that as well.
3. He is getting a raise.
I will maintain he IS NOT worth the rumored $10 million demand, and in an effort to out Nylander into a context - I have complied a list of 7 very comparable winger and 5 not so much wingers to gauge his value. My hunch his he maybe comparing himself to the latter 5....
1. Jesper Bratt - accounting for 9.4% of cap when his current deal was signed. Values Nylander at $8,345,500
2. Kevin Fiala - accounted for 9.5% of cap when his deal was signed. This has Nylander at $8, 447,727
3. Jason Roberston - also at 9.5% when his deal was signed. Nylander $8,447,727
4. Svechnikov - again, roughly 9.5% of cap when his deal was signed, putting Nylander at $8,415,644
5. Jordan Kyrou - accounting for 9.85% at the time of signing, putting Nylander at $8,717,500
6. Kyle Conner -an older deal accounting for 8.8% of cap when signed, putting Nylamder at $7,7449,605
7. Clayton Keller - again at the 8.8% ranger when signed , putting Willie at $7,764110
And the not so comparable, but here for a reason.....
8. Pasternak - accounts for 13.4% of cap at signing, making Nylander $11,923,652
9. Matthew Tkachuk - accounting for 11.5% of cap at signing, valuing Nylander at $10,190,909
10. Kaprizov - 11.04% of cap when signed, making Nylander an $9,773,006 player
11. Kucherov - 11.6% of cap when signed, valuing Nylander at $10,315,950
13. Mark Stone - again at 11.6% of cap when signed, making Nylander that $10,315,950 winger.
I am not diving into analytics at this time, as I am not sure it would even serve a purpose in this exercise.
IF the romours are true, and Nylander is asking $10,000,000 a year, this clearly puts him in the same pay ranges as Kaprizov, Kucherov and Tkachuk. Come in folks.... we know damn well that we would take one of that trio over Nylander any day of the week. Pasternak is simply on another level, but to suggest Nylander is worth a mere $2 million less than a 60 goal scorer???? Come in lol.
The list of players that I would deem "very comparable", has a reasonable Nylander contract in the $8,500,000 range, and with some term. All these contracts I listed have significant term. Don't give me the tax arguement. New Jersey, California, Texas are tax states.
But, we know the Leafs will pay a premium because it is Toronto. So, if the base of Nylndrrs deal given what I would call very strong comparable would be $8,500,000...... what is he worth?
Excellent analysis and comparable. I think he falls into the realm of the mysterious Toronto tax. His camp will ask for Marner and Mathews money. Considering his performance in the regular season and in the playoffs, he has reason to ask for said dollar amount which puts TOR in a bind. Commit to another 10+ million dollar player, or trade him to maximize the return.
I am in agreement with you that he is not worth anything passed 10 million. I think 8.8 to 9.5 is where he'll settle. Now whether that is with TOR or elsewhere remains to be seen.
That being said... next year's FA class is going to be spectacular and I think that Nylander's camp will want to maximize the $$ amount so I have no doubt he'll want to test the waters. With the cap rising. and Nylander being a high profile draw... who knows how much money a team will throw at him.
Excellent analysis and comparable. I think he falls into the realm of the mysterious Toronto tax. His camp will ask for Marner and Mathews money. Considering his performance in the regular season and in the playoffs, he has reason to ask for said dollar amount which puts TOR in a bind. Commit to another 10+ million dollar player, or trade him to maximize the return.
I am in agreement with you that he is not worth anything passed 10 million. I think 8.8 to 9.5 is where he'll settle. Now whether that is with TOR or elsewhere remains to be seen.
That being said... next year's FA class is going to be spectacular and I think that Nylander's camp will want to maximize the $$ amount so I have no doubt he'll want to test the waters. With the cap rising. and Nylander being a high profile draw... who knows how much money a team will throw at him.
Hard to disagree.
I simply look at how the numbers simply tell a story here - and gauging your demand on what you think the market will be maybe smart, but it also punches a ticket out of town.
Stating you want to remain a Leaf, but really failing to realize what your value is stacked against a number of comparables tells another story.
Cleary he is getting a raise. That isn't the arguement. The arguement is what is reasonable and what isn't.
Remember Cody Franson lol? Hit the UFA market after a couple really good years, over valued himself, and ended up in Buffalo on a league minimum. More recently it was Anthony Duclair who never saw what he was asking from Ottawa.
All I know, is if he is getting 7 figures, I cannot see that being in Toronto.
He will get this 10 mil, it won't be Toronto. Assuming he is worth 9ish, 10 isn't overpayment for UFA. Someone will pay him that easily
Maybe..... the list of comparable here is rather lengthy. I have to think GMs are aware of these contracts.... or I would hope so.
Over the last couple years, we haven't seen many overpays in the UFA market..... now this could be due to the flat cap, and I also think the flat cap has made GMs really think about how they spend.
$1 million maybe seen as splitting hairs in this case, but that is also a very solid 4th liner or 3rd pairing D.
I remain interested to see how it plays out; if anything was learned during the flat cap era.
The longer Nylander holds out the lower his value becomes.
Do you honestly think every GM in the league does not see how much a POS Nylander is!
Who would want a player who argues about every contract you try to give him to the point it hurt the team and he does it again!
He does have skill but his personality makes him a cancer for TML, get rid of him fast and for anything we can get.
A 1st round pick would be better then Nylander right now, try and get a 1st and 2nd and walk away.
I don't mind the list of comparables, but I do think context is missing for a bunch of them and even a few are missing that are more important than a lot that are up there.
Robertson was 22/23 years old with ~50 less minutes of PP time and he was the Stars best player even if he was 2 points shy of Pavelski.
Gaudreau should be up there, but he was coming off a 115 point season just 1 year ago sign for $9.75M. He'd already been a PPG player 4x vs Nylander's 2x.
The right numbers should be between $8.8M - $9M. I can understand going to $9.1M - $9.15M because $100k - $150k isn't worth the fight, but $250k over seems more like a bigger deal to push back on. $9.5M or above just isn't a good contract for anyone, but Nylander.
Where’s that leafs fan that was saying he gets north of $12.5m? (Haha)
I think you are spot on. But I would use the $87.5m as your denominator as it’s what league guidance suggests. I would also add Meier, Gaudreau, Forsberg to your list of comps.
The longer Nylander holds out the lower his value becomes.
Do you honestly think every GM in the league does not see how much a POS Nylander is!
Who would want a player who argues about every contract you try to give him to the point it hurt the team and he does it again!
He does have skill but his personality makes him a cancer for TML, get rid of him fast and for anything we can get.
A 1st round pick would be better then Nylander right now, try and get a 1st and 2nd and walk away.
He is under contract for this upcoming season. How is he hurting the team? Is Pesce hurting his team? There are many players who are upcoming FA's and haven't signed deals. Are they all hurting their team because they haven't signed yet? Is Elias Lindholm, Hanafin and Tanev all hurting their teams because they haven't signed yet?
How does throwing him to the trash heap help anything other then whatever team gets him for pennies on the dollar? What does that say to the other players on the team? "Hey, you have skill but we don't care, you asked for a fair wage and because of that we are going to throw you into the mud and call you a cancer". This is the Babcock way of treating people, it doesn't work.
Where’s that leafs fan that was saying he gets north of $12.5m? (Haha)
I think you are spot on. But I would use the $87.5m as your denominator as it’s what league guidance suggests. I would also add Meier, Gaudreau, Forsberg to your list of comps.
The whole 10 million dollar ask is so much bs. It was never confirmed, just one "insider" said Nylander's camp could be asking "as much as" 10 million. Which is purposely vague. Why? Because it drives the comments and clicks. Everyone now spends times debating if he's worth 10 million and that leads to posts like this.
He's an elite talent and him getting whatever he gets will be fine. Because you really can't find what he does without spending money.
I certainly wouldn't offer eight years. That makes contract ending at age 37.
As a UFA, the max would be seven years.
And let's stop this foolishness of what a player wants as any meaning. Every player wants the max.....20% of the cap, so why wouldn't Simon Benoit want 16m?
Leafs decision this year is whether they think it's wise to extend Nylander now, or take their chances on him being a UFA, or just spend that Nylander money on another UFA next summer.
Here's my guess. Leafs don't sign him. Here's to hoping that Nylander stars for the Leafs. Leafs make a deep playoff run. Nylander prices himself out of the Leafs.
Be interesting to see how Nylander reacts to the pressure of NOT having extension.
Oh, your 9.25m. yep I think that is pretty appropriate. If the Leafs were offering 9.25m X 7 today, I gotta think Nylander signs now.
Maybe..... the list of comparable here is rather lengthy. I have to think GMs are aware of these contracts.... or I would hope so.
Over the last couple years, we haven't seen many overpays in the UFA market..... now this could be due to the flat cap, and I also think the flat cap has made GMs really think about how they spend.
$1 million maybe seen as splitting hairs in this case, but that is also a very solid 4th liner or 3rd pairing D.
I remain interested to see how it plays out; if anything was learned during the flat cap era.
Just to add to your comment about not seeing as many overpays for UFA recently. As you suggest it's because of the flat cap. But a big reason is now good RFA are getting just about UFA money.
Or in the Leafs case a few years ago, overpaying their RFAs by any standard.
Maybe..... the list of comparable here is rather lengthy. I have to think GMs are aware of these contracts.... or I would hope so.
Over the last couple years, we haven't seen many overpays in the UFA market..... now this could be due to the flat cap, and I also think the flat cap has made GMs really think about how they spend.
$1 million maybe seen as splitting hairs in this case, but that is also a very solid 4th liner or 3rd pairing D.
I remain interested to see how it plays out; if anything was learned during the flat cap era.
Cap is scheduled to go up significantly in the next 2 years though
Someone is gonna “pay him”
Guaranteed
Just to add to your comment about not seeing as many overpays for UFA recently. As you suggest it's because of the flat cap. But a big reason is now good RFA are getting just about UFA money.
Or in the Leafs case a few years ago, overpaying their RFAs by any standard.
Swinny: Thanks for your detailed analysis.
Palhal, yes the RFA long range deals have had an impact as well. For sure.
The analysis I think is needed if a real discussion is to be had. Throwing numbers around without some level of context makes no sense.
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