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| ROUND 1 | TEAM | ORIGINAL | PLAYER | DETAILS |
|---|
| 1 |  | - | Connor Bedard | 51-93. Forward, Chicago Hawks. The ceiling is most likely more accurate. Bedard is going to tear up the NHL. 60 points is probably a guarantee. 70-80 points is a little more likely. 100 points is entirely possible. |
| 2 |  | - | Luke Evangelista | 40-74. This is a little high for Evangelista. While he's certainly ready to take the league by surprise this season, 74 points is a pipe dream. His NHLe is inflated by his 24 games played in the NHL last season. 40-50 points is well within reason, though, and 60 is theoretically possible, though I doubt it. |
| 3 |  | - | Leo Carlsson | 40-73. I was surprised when his range came out the exact same as Fantilli's. It's worth noting that Carlsson played pro last year while Fantilli played at the NCAA level, so Carlsson's numbers are likely a little inflated and his ceiling isn't quite as high as Fantilli's. Carlsson's game is a little more well rounded, but any less than 30 points would be disappointing. Around 45 is more likely, and 60 is well within the realm of possibility. |
| 4 |  | - | Adam Fantilli | 40-73. I was surprised that Fantilli's ceiling wasn't higher. But it's worth noting that he (as well as Cooley) played at the NCAA level and their ceilings should be higher than Carlsson or Evangelista. 70 points honestly would not surprise me, but 55 seems a lot more likely. |
| 5 |  | - | Logan Cooley | 38-70. Cooley got absolutely robbed by this model due to playing at the NCAA level. 38 would be shocking, and 60-70 seems like a decent range. It's entirely possible that he could be a point-per-game player next season, as his 2022-23 NCAA numbers eclipse Beniers' 2021-22 totals by a ridiculous amount. |
| 6 |  | - | Tyson Foerster | 34-62. Big candidate for a breakout who looked quite good in eight NHL games last season. 34 would be okay, 40-45 would be more ideal. It's worth noting that he'll be playing under Torts this season, so he may face limited playing time and lower totals as a result. |
| 7 |  | - | Ridly Greig | 33-61. If the Senators want to be a playoff team, they'll need Greig to step up in a big way this season. With Pinto out and Norris a constant injury risk, Greig will likely see plenty of top six minutes, and 40 points is well within reason. If he can claim a top six role at the start of the season, 55 points is theoretically possible. |
| 8 |  | - | Pavel Dorofeyev | 28-52. This is quite high. I wouldn't expect any more than 35 points, and it's quite possible that due to limited playing time, he won't hit 28 points. Big gamble. |
| 9 |  | - | Matthew Knies | 28-51. As a Leafs fan, I feel like I can say this. Knies is overhyped. Yes, he's definitely exceeded expectations, but a Calder nomination seems unlikely with names like Bedard, Cooley, Hughes, Levi, and Fantilli in the mix. 30 would be meh, 40 would be great, any more than 50 would be surprising. |
| 10 |  | - | Tye Kartye | 27-50. He had a great playoffs and a great AHL debut last year, but you can't assess a player simply by one good season. He smashed all expectations last season, so it's possible he could stagnate this season. 50 seems quite unlikely, but 25-35 would be a good rookie season for Kartye. |
| 11 |  | - | Zach Benson | 27-49. Assuming he stays in the lineup past the first nine games, Benson has the opportunity to prove a third of the league wrong for passing on him at the draft. He was a ridiculous steal at 13, and I honestly thought he'd be gone by 6. His stellar preseason is quite frankly, unsurprising. Again, assuming he stays in the NHL the whole season, 40 points wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. 50 wouldn't, either. |
| 12 | |  | Marco Rossi | 26-48. Rossi has had plenty of false starts. Before his health declined in 2021, I remember him being whispered as a potential Calder candidate. Rossi's 2021-22 season was reassuring, but last season, he failed to make an impact at the NHL level with plenty of ice time to do so. Is his elite ceiling still attainable? Probably not. Can he still be a good middle-six guy? Hopefully. He should hit 30 this year, and 40's theoretically possible. |
| 13 |  | - | Cole Guttman | 26-47. An older rookie at 24, Guttman could be a sleeper candidate for a breakout. As a center, he likely won't see playing time with Bedard, but if he can nab a bottom-six center role, 20-30 points is well within the realm of possibility. |
| 14 |  | - | Matthew Poitras | 24-44. There's no denying that if the 2022 draft were to be redrafted, Poitras would easily make the top 16. After a stellar breakout in the OHL, Poitras made strides with his two-way game and could step into a third-line center role much faster than anticipated. Assuming he can stay in the lineup, 30 points seems likely. |
| 15 |  | - | Matthew Savoie | 24-44. I'm not as hyped for Savoie as I was last season, but to be fair, I was very high on Savoie going into the draft. He'll likely have to fight harder for playing time as Benson has an edge on him, but if he can stay in the NHL, 44 points seems like an accurate ceiling. |
| 16 |  | - | Raphael Lavoie | 24-43. This is quite high for Lavoie. Assuming he can stay in the lineup, 24 points seems reasonable, but I'd be surprised if he scores more than 30. |
| 17 | |  | Will Cuylle | 22-41. A surprising name to make the opening night roster, Cuylle will likely play nine games before returning to the AHL. New coach Laviolette will likely damper his playing time, so even if he stays in the NHL, any more than 30 points would surprise me. |
| 18 |  | - | Matthew Coronato | 21-39. This is very, very low. Ludicrously low. 21 points seems less likely than 21 goals, and even that might be lowballing it. Don't be surprised if Coronato scores 45 points and 25 goals this season. |
| 19 | |  | Jakub Lauko | 20-36. Barely qualifying as a rookie after playing 23 games last season, Lauko's range is inflated by his NHL play. He most likely will stay on the team in a bottom six role, so 20-25 points seems like a decent estimate. |
| 20 |  | - | Samuel Fagemo | 20-36. So, unrelated to his points total, I found something interesting. Samuel's last name gets censored by Capfriendly when typed in the description. As a lesbian, I'm actually thankful that software is in place to censor slurs, but this is something that might need to be fixed as it's just a Swedish surname. Anyways, back on topic. Recently claimed off waivers, Samuel has a new opportunity to grab some playing time in a thin Nashville lineup. If he can nab middle-six minutes, he could be a surprise breakout this season. 20-36 points actually seems like a perfect range. |
| 21 |  | - | ||
| 22 | |  | Luke Hughes | 24-55. This model gives a broader range for defenders, as their point totals are less reliable, and quite frankly, less important. For Hughes, though, his total should be much closer to his ceiling. 40-50 points seems perfectly reasonable on a stacked New Jersey squad, and 60 points wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. One impediment to his playing time may be that Jonas Siegenthaler (who is criminally underrated) is a perfect match for Dougie Hamilton, so Hughes will likely not see top-pairing minutes quite yet, but he should slot in the second line with John Marino. |
| 23 |  | - | Scott Perunovich | 16-37. Once a hyped prospect, injuries have delayed Perunovich's debut to this season at the age of 25. 37 points is a pipe dream, but if he can stay healthy and claim a spot in the lineup, there's no reason why he can't net 15-20 points. |
| 24 | |  | Samuel Bolduc | 15-34. He'll struggle to find playing time on an elite Islanders D-core (yes, I said elite). He doesn't need to score to prove his worth, as he can hold his own defensively and has the physicality and mobility to back it up. If he can sneak onto the second pairing, which is unlikely, 25 points is possible, but 15 points on the bottom pairing is far more reasonable. |
| 25 | |  | Isaak Phillips | 14-32. If you don't know this name already, remember it. Isaak Phillips is underrated and ready to make an impact. Either Phillips or Wyatt Kaiser, who I'll talk about shortly, will likely play alongside Seth Jones this season, and personally, I think it'll be Phillips. His mobility is fantastic, and he's defensively competent enough to hold his own alongside Jones. While his physicality needs work, his 6'3" stature certainly helps matters. Honestly, I think Phillips and Jones will be a fantastic D-pairing that will take the NHL by storm this year. I know it's a hot take, but Phillips is a real breakout candidate. Assuming everything goes right, 32 points is a reachable ceiling, with 20 being a more likely total. |
| 26 | |  | Lassi Thomson | 13-31. I was shocked when Thomson was waived. Quite frankly, if he can't crack Ottawa's D-corps, that says more about Ottawa's development system and coaching than it does about Thomson. However, Anaheim may not be the best fit for Thomson. Drysdale, Gudas, and Lyubushkin all play the right side. Unless Thomson can either oust Lyubushkin (which seems unlikely), or switch to the left side, he may go back on waivers before New Years'. If he can nab 50 games in the NHL this season, 15 points seems attainable. But there's no guarantee he plays more than 20-30 games. |
| 27 |  | - | Wyatt Kaiser | 13-29. Another underrated Hawks rookie defender, Kaiser has an opportunity to slot in alongside Seth Jones next season. While Phillips is more likely Jones' eventual partner, it's definitely possible that Kaiser could claim that role. Regardless, he'll see plenty of playing time, likely in the top four. Offensively, he doesn't have much luster, but defensively, he's quite capable. He could fit in quite well as a shutdown pairing with Connor Murphy. 29 points seems unlikely, but 15 seems like a good number. |
| 28 | |  | Jackson Lacombe | 12-27. Once a forward, now a defender, Lacombe is quite capable offensively, but if he wants playing time, he'll have to fix the holes in his defensive game. He'll likely see more playing time than Thomson, as he's naturally an LHD. I can't see him playing alongside Gudas, but Ilya Lyubushkin seems like a good D-partner for him. 20-25 points seems quite possible. |
| 29 | |  | Ty Emberson | 10-22. Emberson, a surprising waiver claim (surprising as in I was expecting him to clear), is a defensive defender who has the potential to be a mainstay NHLer, but there's no guarantee. 22 points seems preposterous. 10-15 seems likely. |
| 30 |  | - | Brock Faber | 9-20. An asset acquired in the Fiala trade, Faber is a Minnesota native with a good two-way game. I don't see him playing more than nine games, as he likely won't see much playing time in Minnesota and going back to the AHL would likely be best for his development. Assuming he stays, he'll have to compete with Goligoski for playing time, and if he can dress in 50 games, he could certainly hit 10 points. |
| 31 | |  | Nikita Okhotiuk | 7-17. The Sharks acquired Okhotiuk as one of the 13 moving pieces in the Timo Meier blockbuster. He's a physical defender but he doesn't have the defensive reliability or skill to back it up. I'm still expecting Okhotiuk to get waived before the start of the season. If he makes the roster, 40 games seems possible, though I doubt he hits 10 points. |
| 32 |  | - | Brayden Pachal | 6-15. He's the captain of the Henderson Silver Knights, but I'm expecting him see time on Vegas' roster as a depth defender. He doesn't quite crack the lineup, but he could dress in 30 games and net 5 points. |
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