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Using the Neal-Lucic trade model

Created by: rookescr96
Team: 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 8, 2023
Published: Nov. 8, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
1.
CHI
    Campbell plus maybe a draft pick?

    Mrazek doesn't have any term left so Oilers would likely have to add something.
    2.
    CBJ
      Merzlikins is interesting, he has had good seasons in the past and last year was not good whatsoever. Would be a little desperate for Columbus to make the trade, but maybe if he keeps trending down this could be an option.
      3.
      PHI
        This one would be the most comparable I would say. Both guy's are obviously underperforming their contracts. However because Peterson only has 2 years left I doubt it gets done.

        Also Oilers fans would freak out if they made a trade with Philly for a goalie and it wasn't Hart.
        4.
        SEA
          This one would make sense if Driedger had more term left.

          But Seattle's not taking 4 years of Campbell to get rid of one year of Driedger contract.
          5.
          STL
            This one is interesting. Binnington isn't a bad goalie, but underperforming his contract.

            Definitely better than Campbell still, so St. Louis unlikely to make the trade. But maybe if Binner has a bad bad year this could be more of an option in the offseason.
            6.
            VGK
              Seems weird to put this one on here but it's not a guarantee that Hill lives up to this contract.

              Hill having only 2 years left would make this trade unlikely, just worth noting there is a good chance Hill returns to the fringe Nhl goalie he was before last years playoff run.
              7.
              WSH
                Lot's of people hoping this was who the Oilers would have signed.

                Still performing better than Campbell, but once again maybe if he has a bad bad year, this could be more of a realistic option.
                Buyouts
                Buried
                DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
                2024
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the NSH
                2025
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
                2026
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the EDM
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                ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
                21$83,500,000$82,740,792$850,000$3,875,000$759,208
                Left WingCentreRight Wing
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $5,125,000$5,125,000
                LW, RW
                NMC
                UFA - 3
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $12,500,000$12,500,000
                C
                NMC
                UFA - 3
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $5,500,000$5,500,000
                RW, LW
                NMC
                UFA - 5
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $5,125,000$5,125,000
                LW, C
                NMC
                UFA - 6
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $8,500,000$8,500,000
                C, LW
                M-NTC, NMC
                UFA - 2
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $775,000$775,000 (Performance Bonus$3,225,000$3M)
                RW, LW
                UFA - 1
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$650,000$650K)
                LW, C
                RFA - 1
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $2,100,000$2,100,000
                C
                RFA - 2
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $2,750,000$2,750,000
                LW, RW
                UFA - 1
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $1,000,000$1,000,000
                LW, RW
                UFA - 1
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $900,000$900,000
                C, RW
                UFA - 2
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $874,125$874,125
                RW, C
                RFA - 1
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $775,000$775,000
                RW, C
                UFA - 1
                Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $9,250,000$9,250,000
                LD
                NMC
                UFA - 7
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $3,250,000$3,250,000
                RD
                UFA - 2
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $2,600,000$2,600,000
                G
                UFA - 3
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $6,000,000$6,000,000
                LD/RD
                UFA - 3
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $3,900,000$3,900,000
                RD
                RFA - 2
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $762,500$762,500
                G
                UFA - 1
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $2,750,000$2,750,000
                LD/RD
                UFA - 3
                Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
                $762,500$762,500
                RD
                UFA - 1
                ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
                Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
                $3,800,000$3,800,000
                G
                M-NTC
                UFA - 1
                Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
                $5,000,000$5,000,000
                G
                M-NTC
                UFA - 2
                Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
                $5,400,000$5,400,000
                G
                M-NTC
                UFA - 4
                Logo of the St. Louis Blues
                $6,000,000$6,000,000
                G
                NTC
                UFA - 4
                Logo of the Washington Capitals
                $5,250,000$5,250,000
                G
                M-NTC
                UFA - 4
                Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
                $4,900,000$4,900,000
                G
                M-NTC
                UFA - 2
                Logo of the Seattle Kraken
                $3,500,000$3,500,000
                G
                M-NTC
                UFA - 1

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                Nov. 8, 2023 at 11:26 a.m.
                #1
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                I find it odd that you say “plus maybe a draft pick?” on the Chicago trade. It’s most certainly a draft pick. A first rounder and more. Let’s be realistic, dumping Campbell requires quality assets.
                Hawksguy81, Snowhawk18 and OGap12 liked this.
                Nov. 8, 2023 at 11:28 a.m.
                #2
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                An Elvis for Campbell swap isn’t even close lol. Campbell is one of the worst contracts in the league
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                Nov. 8, 2023 at 11:29 a.m.
                #3
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                rookescr96
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                Quoting: HiddenValley
                I find it odd that you say “plus maybe a draft pick?” on the Chicago trade. It’s most certainly a draft pick. A first rounder and more. Let’s be realistic, dumping Campbell requires quality assets.


                was more implying that Chicago might want a draft pick more than a prospect from Edmonton. And yes it does require a lot to dump campbell but Mrazek isn't a prime asset himself
                Nov. 8, 2023 at 11:30 a.m.
                #4
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                Unless the Oilers are trading for a goalie who has the same term and a similar cap hit to Campbell, the Oilers add significant assets to move him. Hawks probably don't consider taking him without the equivalent of two 1st round picks attached
                Nov. 8, 2023 at 11:31 a.m.
                #5
                Thread Starter
                rookescr96
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                Quoting: SK101
                An Elvis for Campbell swap isn’t even close lol. Campbell is one of the worst contracts in the league


                Merzlikins had a worse GAA and save percentage than Campbell last year. As I said it would take a bit of desparation from Columbus to make the trade but I don't think it's "not even close"
                Nov. 8, 2023 at 11:34 a.m.
                #6
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                Quoting: rookescr96
                Merzlikins had a worse GAA and save percentage than Campbell last year. As I said it would take a bit of desparation from Columbus to make the trade but I don't think it's "not even close"


                He was playing behind a top pair of gudbranson and Peeke last year due to injuries lol. It really is not even close. He’s looked much better this year behind a mediocre defense. Meanwhile Campbell is gettin paid 5 million a year to not be in the NHL. We are talking at least a first round pick + difference and even then the jackets don’t do it
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                Nov. 8, 2023 at 11:37 a.m.
                #7
                Thread Starter
                rookescr96
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                Quoting: Hawksguy81
                Unless the Oilers are trading for a goalie who has the same term and a similar cap hit to Campbell, the Oilers add significant assets to move him. Hawks probably don't consider taking him without the equivalent of two 1st round picks attached


                Your slightly over valuing a cap dump trade here. Yes I believe it would take a first round pick potentially plus to dump Campbell. But when the Kings dumped Peterson, they gave up a second round pick and Helg Grans who was a second round pick plus Sean Walker who was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.

                The leafs only had to move back about 13 spots in the draft in order to dump Mrazek's $3.8 million.

                Yes cap dumps cost you, but two first round picks isn't a reasonable price based on actual cap dumps in the past.
                Nov. 8, 2023 at 12:06 p.m.
                #8
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                Quoting: rookescr96
                Your slightly over valuing a cap dump trade here. Yes I believe it would take a first round pick potentially plus to dump Campbell. But when the Kings dumped Peterson, they gave up a second round pick and Helg Grans who was a second round pick plus Sean Walker who was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.

                The leafs only had to move back about 13 spots in the draft in order to dump Mrazek's $3.8 million.

                Yes cap dumps cost you, but two first round picks isn't a reasonable price based on actual cap dumps in the past.


                You aren't going to find a comparable trade where a team dumped a $5m cap hit for 4 years. There hasn't been one. Based on recent Hawks deals in which they took cap dumps from other teams, two firsts seems about right. Zaitsev from Ottawa - one year at $4.5m took a 2nd and a 4th. Josh Bailey from Isles - one year at $5m took a 2nd. It's not just the cap hit number that plays into it. It's also the term. 4 years is a long time! How about the Patty Marleau dump? Leafs gave up a 1st to move one year at $6m. Based on that, two 1st's to move 4 years at $5m is a bargain! The reality is every GM in the league knows what Edmonton's situation is. No one is doing Holland any favors. Oilers are going to pay a premium to move Campbell. How much depends on which team. There may be a team out there who is willing to take one 1st or a 2nd and a prospect but I can pretty much guarantee it won't be the Hawks.
                SociallyHawkward, LivingAnew, Snowhawk18 and 1 other person liked this.
                Nov. 8, 2023 at 1:59 p.m.
                #9
                Snowhawk
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                Edited Nov. 8, 2023 at 2:14 p.m.
                Quoting: rookescr96
                Your slightly over valuing a cap dump trade here. Yes I believe it would take a first round pick potentially plus to dump Campbell. But when the Kings dumped Peterson, they gave up a second round pick and Helg Grans who was a second round pick plus Sean Walker who was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.

                The leafs only had to move back about 13 spots in the draft in order to dump Mrazek's $3.8 million.

                Yes cap dumps cost you, but two first round picks isn't a reasonable price based on actual cap dumps in the past.



                You conveniently leave out several key points in your response:

                Peterson only had two years remaining, not four.

                L.A. also retained over $2m per season for two years on Provorov.

                When the Hawks made the deal with the Leafs for Mrazek, Chicago needed a goalie… that’s not the case now. Difference circumferences lead to a different price.

                Also factor in that there are roughly five teams that can absorb the Campbell cap hit and as others have mentioned, some of those teams really don’t have a fit for Campbell moving forward.
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