Funny again how you just ignore all the statistics I provided that showed its a short-term increase for Pettersson's Goals%.

The other problem you have is Pettersson's contract runs out when Crosby, Letang, and Malkin are likely retiring. Is Pettersson going to want to stick around through a rebuild at 29 with no cup yet? No, probably not.

You say the post is about value. Based on real-world examples, Pettersson's real-world market value is a 1st + 2nd. It doesn't matter how you feel about the player, when you're trying to improve your team, emotions have to be a non-factor, especially in a business like hockey. so unless you are actually in the war room with the Penguins FO, you have no clue what the Penguins have his value set as. I could say Noah Juulsen is worth McDavid + Draisaitl + unprotected 1st, but that doesn't mean Patrick Allvin agrees with that. Let's be honest, Pettersson is a good Top-4 guy, but he's not a franchise player like the aforementioned Crosby, Letang, or Malkin are. There is no sentimental value a team is going to give you for someone who may have a #1 fan, he's not going to have an inflated value like he's Patrick Kane or Claude Giroux or whichever other franchise player traded away. He's a Top-4 defenseman, and his value is that of a Top-4 defenseman, a 1st and a 2nd round pick. If he does get traded and it ends up being more, great! But based on all the real world data we have, that's not going to be the case.

Elias Pettersson (D), too, based on team news.

Maybe. But that is asking them to punt on the next 2 seasons. Crosby is signed for the next two seasons. It doesn't line up.

The problem is that Van has a shallow pool. Willaner is an A. Everyone else (from what I've seen) is a B or less. Pit would want an A for a 40 goal scorer.

This has got to be one of the most entertaining reads on capfriendly lol. I think most people are missing the point (maybe i am too). This to me seems to be what the asking price would be if dubas was called about said player, and dubas has said he wants to have a couple years where the team can possibly win a cup (even though it is unlikely), therefore moving players that can help that would yield a tremendous cost for him to move, especially to a team that would be a direct rival in our division. As for petterson and guentzel they’re both elite, idk what gives people the thought petterson isn’t, but maybe it’s more of their definition of elite is. In my opinion petterson has probably been the best defensemen on the Pens so far this year, until the past week and a half or so he had to clean up all Karlssons mistakes and has done so extremely well. He’s also incredibly consistent and you can’t pick a game out where you can say he had a bad game, which is important for a defensively minded D.

All that being said i would agree it would be dumb for Vancouver or NJ to make these trades, but people are starting to think pens are gonna sell and i personally dont see that happening this year. With what dubas has said i dont see him selling at the deadline. If they’re out of the playoffs i think he might trade some pieces going to FA that he doesn’t mind losing to FA, like Ned, nieto, etc, but i really dont see him trading guentzel or petterson, they’re too valuable to the team if they want to compete (even if they end up not being competitive). He also might look to add inexpensive pieces with term that could help next year. He might not do that either we dont know, but personally that’s what id do.

My man. You aren't listening. The value in this instance is what I say it is. This is (obviously) my opinion. Just as yours is a 1st + a 2nd. They are not objective facts. I'll use your words to say it one more time.



So if Petterson lines up with Malkin / Crosby / Letang / Karlsson retiring or being not good anymore, what is a low 1st and low 2nd going to do for that rebuild? A little perhaps but not a lot.

On the reverse side, what is a shutdown defenseman going to do for this Pens team in the next two years? A fair amount.

So why should the Pens trade him? You say he is only a top 4 guy or that he is a product of Karlsson. Ok, let's say that's true. It doesn't change the fact he is great on this team. So why would a team that wants to go for the cup this year (currently 5 points out of the playoffs) and next year, trade their best defensive defenseman?

You can use all the comparables you'd like but top 4 guys with term on teams trying to win, do not get traded. So it would take an overpay.

You said so yourself, Pettersson fits in their perceived window. That's pretty much the end of the discussion.

This. You are exactly correct

The pens as a whole have to be one of the weirdest teams this year, they started badly going 3-6 in October, despite being great analytically for a long while. They then went on and had a pretty good November going 8-4-1, then injuries started piling up the analytics went down significantly and so far in December they are 4-3-3. All that and they’ve had stellar goaltending. But on the flip side of the goaltending they’ve had a horrid s% of 7.95% which is 31st in the nhl as of now. It’s hard to tell whether the s% is just unlucky, running into hot goalies or lack of scoring talent, from watching every game so far id say its a bit of all 3, but its super frustrating as a fan and has to be as a player as well, but i think its safe to assume that’ll it will eventually come back closer to the mean. The slide in December can also be attributed to players starting to play bad/not producing those mainly being karlsson, Malkin, and smith. Think the next 9 games will be really telling of how the season will end, 5 of them being against metro teams in front of them in the playoff race.

My guy, I've provided real-world examples of directly comparable players, complete with stats and cap hits. These are actual trades that happened in the real world, not in your imagination. This is the basis for the market. If you want to keep using the housing analogy, I'm not a buyer on the market, I'm a realtor advising you what the price is based on the current market, using facts and examples. To give you some more facts, I've correctly called the value of multiple players on this site before their trades happened; Horvat (1st+prospect+roster player), Provorov (1st + 2nd), Tatar (4th or 5th rounder), Zadorov (3rd rounder), it is a well-researched opinion, that's using recent market value to predict the current market value.



I'm sorry, what is this mental gymnastics?


In your original post you said "Petterson = a 1st + A prospect."

In your last reply, you said "The post is about value."

Now you're mad at a low 1st? Did you forget what the main purpose of the thread was? You're the one who suggested a 1st + A-tier prospect to begin with. You are so mad about a well-researched opinion on what the market is that you forgot the entire point of your post, to determine the market value. Saying, "pEnGUiNs dOn'T eVEn NEed tO tRAdE hiM," is defeating the entire purpose of your post. You can't even keep track of what you said.

He is simply stating the prices that would be asked for if someone called dubas about these players.



Read this for more in depth as to why. He’s not saying anyone is right or wrong, hes saying that if you want to buy key players from a team that wants to be competitive these would be the prices.

What do you mean this isn't about right or wrong? OP plainly says, "The value in this instance is what I say it is." "Petterson = a 1st + A prospect." "The post is about value." OP does not say, "This is my opinion," until after half the forum has said they are wrong in their assessments. OP has changed their 'intention' three times in the thread, each time they get called out and disproven. Before that he was saying he was wanting to determine the value of the player. It's right there in the quote.

It doesn't matter if it's a key player to another team, it matters what teams are willing to pay. Based on the recent market, the current market value is estimated to be a 1st + 2nd. I don't understand what's so hard to get at about this. The purpose was to determine value, this is his value determined based on all the data I've previously presented. You can't base the value of a player on how you feel about them.

I mean the values are unknown to us, think about how many times GMs get called about a player they do not want to trade, so they set a the trade value for that player to be completely unreasonable as so they will not accept it, unless by some miracle they do accept in which case its highway robbery for that trade. He’s essentially saying that if someone called him for these players, having set the stage for what the team intends to do, which in this case is to compete the next couple years, that is the price he would set to trade these players since they are so valuable to the team competing. It’s like looking at what mcdavids trade value is, is he gonna be traded? No. But if a team were to call about him the GM might offer a price that is so astronomical that they wouldn’t be willing to make it. Idk how else to explain exactly what he means by that more in depth then that. A team that wants to compete (whether or not you agree with their ability to) is not going to trade 2 players that are instrumental to their team.

If you want another analogy think of it in terms of a barter for something someone wants to sell that doesn’t have a designated price. The seller will always start high, much higher then they might be willing to accept, on the opposite side the buyer will start low, again much lower then they might be willing to pay. It’s at this point that the counter offers start slowly getting closer to a price both the buyer and seller are willing to pay/sell for. But in this case the seller doesn’t want to get rid of said item so they stay at that high price and dont budge from it, basically saying if you want this item that is the price you have to pay in order to take it from me even though the item may not be worth the price they have set for it. That item may have sentimental value, may be accruing value, or maybe the item is irreplaceable, so for that reason the price is set by the seller who doesn’t really want to sell it. This is basic economics 101. The buyer and seller both have their reservation price, and the sellers reservation price is simply so much higher then the buyers.

The value is not unknown, that's my point, I've provided several examples of comparable players, go back and re-read. GMs get called, they don't make up value on the spot. They use the market to gauge what the price of a player is. Past examples. You can use pattern recognition to determine the value. Determine the estimated value based on the statistics, Top-4 D. Reference trades involving other Top-4 D. Bada-bing, bada-boom, you get the value. It's pretty simple, I don't know why other people don't do this, it is clear that the NHL FOs do this. Go back and compare other trades, the difference is when GMs overvalue or undervalue a player's estimated worth. Defenders like Pettersson have seen a lot of recent movement, so we have a wider array of results. They've all be very consistent.

You’re not getting the point, you’re talking about trades where the team wants to trade that player. Or find an offer they’re willing to accept… its the fact they DONT want to trade the player, so since they have that player they can set the price they’d be willing to trade him at. In this instance the price would be ridiculous so that no teams accept. Like i said it’s all the trades that DONT happen when GMs call about a player that a GM has no interest in trading so they set the value so high so they dont accept it.

You’re right that’s its easy to find the value of a player that if he was available this is what you should expect to get back, but that’s looking at players where there are probably conversations and negotiations and you only see the end product of those calls or meetings. This situation is where the GM doesn’t want to trade a player, where the price is set ultra high.

Just so we're clear: This is a scenario where Pittsburgh trades Pettersson. They want to trade Pettersson, so they trade Pettersson. No one is holding the Penguins Head Office hostage and forcing them against their will to trade Pettersson, right? Okay, good. So, in the scenario where Pittsburgh trades Pettersson, they want to trade Pettersson, so they trade Pettersson. In this scenario, Pettersson is worth a 1st and a 2nd.

Or there's the alternative realm, where Kyle Dubas for some reason DOESN'T want to trade Pettersson, and trades Pettersson anyway. How does GMKD trade Pettersson, the Pettersson he doesn't want to trade? Well, someone has forced him to against his will and GMKD must try and get as much as he can for Pettersson because he doesn't want to trade him, but he'll do it if it's a better deal though he really doesn't want to. In this scenario that you've crafted and plucked from the aether, Pettersson is worth a 1st + A-tier prospect. Let's be clear, not a real-world scenario, just this simulation where someone has forced Dubas to trade a player, Pettersson, a player he does not want to trade.

I'm glad we cleared things up.

I mean i get where you’re coming from, i guess i dont see this as an evaluation of what the players are worth, more of what the asking price for these players will be if someone were to call about their availability. In this case it’s insanely high because they’re key pieces to a team that wants to compete. This isn’t so much as an alternative realm, more like what’s probably being said on phone calls we never hear about because they are so ludicrous they never call again lol.

In other words dont think about it from terms of this player is available so lets look at similar players to know what kind of value he holds. Think of it in terms of this player is unavailable but if you really want him here’s the insane price you have to pay to get him. (Which is insane for the purpose of not wanting a call back) its basically meant as a joke more or less.

My brother in christ:

lol so every players value is the same as a comparable no matter what? There’s a difference of value in terms of what a player is worth if he’s available versus not available. For example let’s say you’re the GM of Vancouver and I call as a the Pens GM to ask what you want for Brock Boeser and you give a price that’s too much for me to pay because he’s extremely valuable for your teams current success like getting Crosby and Guentzel both half retained a 1st round pick and you don’t move from that asking price. Now let’s say you’re the GM of the sharks and boeser is there as well as he’s having the same production, his value has changed because you don’t want your team to compete so that you have have a better chance at the 1st overall pick so you’re willing to be more negotiable on price because he’s hindering your ability to tank, and you need assets to rebuild. Same player 2 different teams with 2 different goals but the value is different, because the teams are in different places in their goals. Boeser in Vancouver is more valuable because he’s helping them reach their goals, where boeser in San Jose is hindering their goal.

Comparables only work in a situation where the team is wanting to move a player or has no choice but to move him, the guy is saying ok you want him, well I don’t want to move him, but if you really want him this is the price you’ll have to pay. And that price in this instance is wayyyy above the market value. So because of that your best bet is to find a guy with a similar player that’s willing to be more reasonable and negotiable.

This may go down as one of the most over-discussed arguments that doesn't make a lick of sense on this site. Jumped on after seeing I got a like only to see this farce has **6** pages of argument.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all, move on.

Ok this has got to be the best troll job I’ve seen on CapFriendly this year lmao.