Quoting: dgibb10
You spout these numbers all the time but when a draft pick hits you get 7 years of value from them until they hit UFA.
30% hit rate, but when they do hit they provide immense value to a team
You really wanna go down on how much and how long said skill/talent offers value? Drafting is a thing but development and team window is also to be included in such calculation. I wouldn't say that those coming guys do not bring something but the time between the draft and the moment they reach a profitable moment should ring a bell for you ...
2 texts on the draft pics values :
1 -
Valuation of NHL Draft Picks using Functional Data Analysis
2 -
What‟s An NHL Draft Pick Worth? A Value Pick Chart for the National Hockey League
If you look on Google there is also a 3rd link but it is an auto download the text is named : «Mining NHL Draft Data and A New Value Pick Chart»
Your 30% hit rate is kinda vague here. from round 1 rank 1 to 12, we're at a 65% chance to hit the league with a greater talent/skill, from 12 to 25 we're at something like 45%, and 25+ less than 30% but as ranks fall the curve of talent skill also downgrade. So yeah they can bring a whole lot of things to a team and contribute but for how long and with what consistency?
It's hard to answer but again research offers perspective
here
Go have fun reading the papers and come back to us with your enlightenment about it. GMs have a huge math problem with this, and with our huge sensitivity as fans, we elude too much of this kind of logic and therefore miss the value by a lot.