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Merzlikins solution

Created by: CertifiedAverage
Team: 2024-25 Columbus Blue Jackets
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 27, 2024
Published: Mar. 27, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I made a post proposing a crazy trade for Necas and felt like I needed to get back down to Earth.

Merzlikins is currently heading for a buyout. He seems to want out of Columbus. The cost of dumping him is going to be too high. I haven't been for the Campbell-Merzlikins solution, but I am now. I reason like this: as far as I can tell, buying out Merzlikins isn't all that different from buying out Campbell. The Blue Jackets could get some assets for doing the swap with Edmonton and then either buy Campbell out or roll the dice on him. Hey, Spencer Martin revived his career in Columbus, why not Campbell? This way, Columbus get a 2024 2nd almost for free even if they buy out Campbell compared to buying out Merzlikins. And Edmonton gets fairly competent goaltending. If Campbell bounces back, they get a 2nd round pick for exchanging fairly competent goaltenders. Assuming Merzlikins and Columbus are heading for a divorce, this is as good a solution as any.

I combined this with doing a scenario where the new GM basically stands pat and focusing on getting to know his group as well as developing the young players. Provorov has the maximum value at the 2025 TDL. Kuraly and some others could also be traded then.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$850,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$900,000
2$2,305,000
3$800,000
2$2,400,000
5$6,405,000
1$800,000
2$2,260,000
2$1,500,000
Trades
1.
CBJ
  1. Campbell, Jack
  2. 2024 2nd round pick (EDM)
2.
CBJ
  1. Knight, Spencer
Additional Details:
Columbus get a goaltender. I'd want a pick coming here to, but I didn't include it to at least try to compensate for my own biases.
FLA
  1. Boqvist, Adam
Additional Details:
FLA gets a promising young offensive RD and some cap space.
3.
CBJ
  1. 2024 2nd round pick (CBJ)
  2. 2024 3rd round pick (PHI)
PHI
  1. Bean, Jake [RFA Rights]
  2. 2025 2nd round pick (CBJ)
Additional Details:
At the draft. Deferring the Provorov pick to 2025 and trading the RFA rights of Bean.
4.
CBJ
  1. 2024 1st round pick (LAK)
  2. 2024 7th round pick (LAK)
LAK
  1. 2024 2nd round pick (CBJ)
  2. 2024 3rd round pick (CBJ)
  3. 2024 3rd round pick (LAK)
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the LAK
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the PHI
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the LAK
2025
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the VGK
2026
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the CBJ
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$87,700,000$79,281,666$0$4,950,000$8,418,334
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$9,750,000$9,750,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,200,000$3M)
C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$6,405,000$6,405,000
RW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$8,700,000$8,700,000
C, RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$3,750,000$3,750,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,305,000$2,305,000
RW, LW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,400,000$2,400,000
LW, C
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$925,000$925,000
LW, C, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, C, RW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,260,000$2,260,000
C
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$9,583,333$9,583,333
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$918,333$918,333 (Performance Bonus$1,000,000$1M)
RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$4,725,000$4,725,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,050,000$1,050,000
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$918,333$918,333 (Performance Bonus$750,000$750K)
LD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$4,000,000$4,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$900,000$900,000
LD/RD
UFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$800,000$800,000
RW, LW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RW
UFA - 1

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Mar. 27 at 2:37 p.m.
#1
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The caps would give you Kuemper just one for one on Elvis. Both need a change of scenery
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Mar. 27 at 2:43 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: Logicalicesports
The caps would give you Kuemper just one for one on Elvis. Both need a change of scenery


That's a good idea too. I like it. The difference maker here to me is that the Oilers would probably have to add a pick to a Campbell-Merzlikins swap and I think that is of higher value to the Blua Jackets right now, as they are not making the playoffs next year. Especially if they can pry Knight out of Florida, which I really want them to do.
Mar. 27 at 2:43 p.m.
#3
Mac1010
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oilers would not do this Elvis wants to be a starter and will not be one in edmonton. he has already shown he can be a distraction if he doesnt get that role. Oilers just buyout campbell.
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Mar. 27 at 2:44 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: mm1010
oilers would not do this Elvis wants to be a starter and will not be one in edmonton. he has already shown he can be a distraction if he doesnt get that role. Oilers just buyout campbell.


Aren't they cap-strapped to the extreme? The Blue Jackets can afford to buyout Campbell/Merzlikins, I'm not sure the Oilers can.
Mar. 27 at 2:45 p.m.
#5
Nah.
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I'm just not sure I see FLA trading Knight, particularly since he is waivers exempt for another season and his contract coincides with Bob's.

That being said, I still aim to give Campbell a try-out with CBJ. Greaves is waivers exempt next season, and I want all the time possible to let him develop - big fan of where he could head.

Best case? He's a case of goalie-voodoo, and bounces back to even an average G. Worst case? We buy him out next off-season.

I also like the idea of CBJ and EDM swapping D reclamation projects - maybe send them Bean or Boqvist in exchange for Broberg or something. SPeaking of, really don't think Bean has 3rd-rounder value.

Then again, what the hell do I know.
Mar. 27 at 2:47 p.m.
#6
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If the Kings were in a rebuild or something like that I could see why they would do that but to trade down makes no sense for them. The title of a 1st round pick is more appealing to teams then the title of a 2nd round pick and because of that if they were to trade away that 1st it would probably be for a player to help them right now as opposed to getting futures.

I'm not saying this is a bad trade I'm just saying from the Kings end it doesn't make sense.
Mar. 27 at 2:49 p.m.
#7
Mac1010
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Quoting: CertifiedAverage
Aren't they cap-strapped to the extreme? The Blue Jackets can afford to buyout Campbell/Merzlikins, I'm not sure the Oilers can.


That would actually get them a bit of breathing room taking on elvis would keep them more cap strapped. There back up next year will probably be 1M or under with the buyout hit that only 2.5 against the cap vs elvis 5.4M cap hit.

only somewhat bigger contracts are foegele and henrique( if they want to keep him) additionally you will probably see kulak moved to make room for broberg clearing more cap. They will spend to the cap but have enough wiggle room
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Mar. 27 at 2:52 p.m.
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Quoting: dopplsan
I'm just not sure I see FLA trading Knight, particularly since he is waivers exempt for another season and his contract coincides with Bob's.

That being said, I still aim to give Campbell a try-out with CBJ. Greaves is waivers exempt next season, and I want all the time possible to let him develop - big fan of where he could head.

Best case? He's a case of goalie-voodoo, and bounces back to even an average G. Worst case? We buy him out next off-season.

I also like the idea of CBJ and EDM swapping D reclamation projects - maybe send them Bean or Boqvist in exchange for Broberg or something. SPeaking of, really don't think Bean has 3rd-rounder value.

Then again, what the hell do I know.


I've seen a lot of Florida fans seeming to want to get rid of Knight and being interested in Boqvist. So that's where I got this idea from and it really appeals to me. Of course, it probably won't happen.

Agreed on Greaves and rolling the dice on Campbell. I don't see a scenario where Columbus loses out (compared to just buying out Merzlikins) if a deal like this takes place.

Columbus got Bean for a 2nd. Like you pointed out, if Peeke can get a 3rd, I think Bean can.

I really want to make room for Mateychuk and Jiricek to play next year. That is a crucial part of the next season for the Blue Jackets, in my opinion. And I'd like Blankenburg to get some NHL time too, probably in a 7D role. I'd not be against trading Bean or Boqvist for a player like Broberg per se, but then either Broberg or Blankenburg will spend some time as scratches or in the AHL. I guess that's fine too.
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Mar. 27 at 2:57 p.m.
#9
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Edited Mar. 28 at 2:05 a.m.
Quoting: Hckeydude123
If the Kings were in a rebuild or something like that I could see why they would do that but to trade down makes no sense for them. The title of a 1st round pick is more appealing to teams then the title of a 2nd round pick and because of that if they were to trade away that 1st it would probably be for a player to help them right now as opposed to getting futures.

I'm not saying this is a bad trade I'm just saying from the Kings end it doesn't make sense.


The reason I proposed that trade is because there is a player that I really like for Columbus that I think might go in that range. I looked up the draft picks' assigned relative "value" and made an even trade. In the end, it comes down to what players the Kings like with those picks. I guess Columbus could do something like Provorov at 50 % retained for that pick, but he will have higher value at the 2025 TDL and LA already retains on him, so I don't think that would be an optimal use of resources by Columbus.

EDIT: Columbus could also do something around a 2nd and Bean/Boqvist, but I'm not sure if they move the needle for LA. CBJ could also do the trade with CHI for #20, if that makes more sense.
Mar. 27 at 3:07 p.m.
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CLB best improvements need to be in the front office. If they can fix their leadership, everything else will fall into place. Carl Soderberg turned it around with Bednar, so its possible with Elvis too!
Mar. 27 at 3:09 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: mm1010
That would actually get them a bit of breathing room taking on elvis would keep them more cap strapped. There back up next year will probably be 1M or under with the buyout hit that only 2.5 against the cap vs elvis 5.4M cap hit.

only somewhat bigger contracts are foegele and henrique( if they want to keep him) additionally you will probably see kulak moved to make room for broberg clearing more cap. They will spend to the cap but have enough wiggle room


Yeah, it only makes sense for Edmonton if they believe in Merzlikins. If they don't, Columbus will either trade Merzlikins for someone like Kuemper as mentioned above or buy Merzlikins out and sign someone like Brossoit, which should save them some cap space.
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Mar. 27 at 3:12 p.m.
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Quoting: earl08
CLB best improvements need to be in the front office. If they can fix their leadership, everything else will fall into place. Carl Soderberg turned it around with Bednar, so its possible with Elvis too!


This is assuming they agree to going their separate ways. If that is avoidable, I don't see a problem with keeping Merzlikins. He's a decent enough goaltender. But this is just me coming to terms with that buying out Merzlikins or doing the often-proposed Campbell swap is not the disaster I painted it out to be in my head.
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Mar. 27 at 3:23 p.m.
#13
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This is definitely in line with what I'd expect the offseason to look like.

I remember having a lengthy discussion on another ACGM about the Elvis-Campbell swap, and the consensus from Oilers fans seemed to be that even if he's an improvement, the team is so cap-strapped that Elvis-for-Campbell doesn't help any more than just keeping Campbell. I don't think there's any other option for Edmonton other than a buyout; he just costs too much to dump (which are assets better spent elsewhere), and they can't take any cap back. Even ~$1M retained on Elvis wasn't more attractive than the much cheaper Skinner-Pickard or Skinner-Rodrigue tandem.

I'd fully support the idea, and:
Quoting: dopplsan
I still aim to give Campbell a try-out with CBJ. Greaves is waivers exempt next season, and I want all the time possible to let him develop - big fan of where he could head.what the hell do I know.
my thinking is exactly in line with this if Columbus pulls it off, but odds aren't good IMO.


Quoting: Logicalicesports
The caps would give you Kuemper just one for one on Elvis. Both need a change of scenery


If this happens after July 1st when Kuemper's signing bonus for the year is paid, that's a particularly attractive option. I'd do that one-for-one and hope for a rebound, just to move on from Elvis without significantly hampering the team/spending assets to do so. Ownership certainly would take the actual money savings, if Washington is okay with it.


As for the other trades: Bean and Boqvist are both similarly fine 7th D in my opinion, I wouldn't mind keeping one or the other around, but both is redundant. Bean has had the better season in terms of inflating his trade value, so it makes sense to move his rights, whatever that pick may be. I'd be fine with keeping Boqvist one more year and seeing if he can do the same next year.

CBJ trading up is fine, but we've also don't have a good history of doing so:
Carlsson (29th) for Dermott (34th) and Dzierkals (68th) in 2015, Aho (35th) Carlo (37th) and a bunch of other 2nd rounders were notably still available (Hintz, Cernak, Sprong, Greenway, Andersson, etc...yikes that draft hurts.
Lynch (56th) for Nilsson (62nd) and Cizikas (92nd) is also notable, in 2009, as well as Moore (21st) for Palmieri (26th) and Mat Clark (37th) in that same draft (double-yikes).
Mayorov (94th) for Smith (128th), Michael Neal (149th) and Jamie Benn (129th) is also particularly egregious.

Trading back has historically been better for CBJ, and is pretty continually proven to be the better option:
2014: Turgeon (63rd) for Elvis (76th) and a 5th the next year
2013: Jarry (44th) for Heatherington (50th) and Bjorkstrand (89th) as long as you think Bjorkstrand > Jarry
2019: Schwindt (81st) for Hjorth (104th) and Voronkov (114th)
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Mar. 27 at 3:49 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: CertifiedAverage
Aren't they cap-strapped to the extreme? The Blue Jackets can afford to buyout Campbell/Merzlikins, I'm not sure the Oilers can.


If cap is their issue why would they trade Campbell ($3.85M buried) for Elvis ($5.4M)? I think you just destroyed your own argument.

Edmonton's incentive to pay to move Campbell is cap relief. They aren't interested in a more expensive backup / AHLer.
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Mar. 27 at 4:11 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: CD282
If cap is their issue why would they trade Campbell ($3.85M buried) for Elvis ($5.4M)? I think you just destroyed your own argument.

Edmonton's incentive to pay to move Campbell is cap relief. They aren't interested in a more expensive backup / AHLer.


See my previous response. The only way it makes sense is if the Oilers believe that Merzlikins is worth the money. But yes, I'll freely admit that what I wrote there made very little sense. I started this ACGM as simply a Merzlikins buyout and then realised that all those Campbell+ for Merzlikins proposals that I found so horrible really would be very benificial to the Blue Jackets if a separation between them and Merzlikins is inavoidable, which I didn't believe at the time. Obviously, if the Oilers don't believe in Merzlikins as the solution, they should just buy out Campbell and the Blue Jackets should either trade him for Kuemper as discussed above or buy him out.

Quoting: CaseyFlyman
CBJ trading up is fine, but we've also don't have a good history of doing so:
Carlsson (29th) for Dermott (34th) and Dzierkals (68th) in 2015, Aho (35th) Carlo (37th) and a bunch of other 2nd rounders were notably still available (Hintz, Cernak, Sprong, Greenway, Andersson, etc...yikes that draft hurts.
Lynch (56th) for Nilsson (62nd) and Cizikas (92nd) is also notable, in 2009, as well as Moore (21st) for Palmieri (26th) and Mat Clark (37th) in that same draft (double-yikes).
Mayorov (94th) for Smith (128th), Michael Neal (149th) and Jamie Benn (129th) is also particularly egregious.

Trading back has historically been better for CBJ, and is pretty continually proven to be the better option:
2014: Turgeon (63rd) for Elvis (76th) and a 5th the next year
2013: Jarry (44th) for Heatherington (50th) and Bjorkstrand (89th) as long as you think Bjorkstrand > Jarry
2019: Schwindt (81st) for Hjorth (104th) and Voronkov (114th)

I don't think they should be afraid of it based on previous mistakes. It's a judgement on a case-by-case basis. I propose it here because I really like a player that I think might go right around there. If that wasn't the case, I'd stand pat.
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Mar. 27 at 5:00 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: CertifiedAverage
I don't think they should be afraid of it based on previous mistakes. It's a judgement on a case-by-case basis. I propose it here because I really like a player that I think might go right around there. If that wasn't the case, I'd stand pat.


Well now I'm just curious, which player do you think we should trade up for? If that pick is in the 20-24 range, looking at NHLe on Tankathon: Basha? Artamanov? Stick with the UM theme and go Hage?
Mar. 27 at 5:13 p.m.
#17
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Edited Mar. 28 at 12:52 a.m.
Quoting: CaseyFlyman
Well now I'm just curious, which player do you think we should trade up for? If that pick is in the 20-24 range, looking at NHLe on Tankathon: Basha? Artamanov? Stick with the UM theme and go Hage?


I think Yegor Surin is a fantastic player that's going to be rising between now and the draft. He is currently often ranked in the middle of the 2nd round, so theoretically, Columbus could get him at #34. But I think he will rise, since he has played very well, grown a lot since last season and many scouts will be catching up on a lot of videos of Russians when the North American junior leagues are done. I believe this will make him a late 1st rounder (similar to how But and Simashev rose last year). If Columbus could get him either by trading up or simply getting him at #36, I'd be well pleased. The best scenario would of course be to get him at #36. I have some confidence with the Blue Jackets in this though, as they have been good at drafting Russians lately and will have a much better gauge of his ranking than I do.
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Mar. 27 at 5:29 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: CertifiedAverage
I think Yegor Surin is a fantastic player that's going to be rising between now and the draft. He is currently often ranked in the middle of the 2nd round, so theoretically, Columbus could get him at #34. But I think he will rise, since he has played very well, grown a lot since last season and many scouts will be catching up on a lot of videos of Russians when the North American junior leagues are done. I believe this will make him a late 1st rounder (similar to how But and Simashev rose last year). If Columbus could get him either by trading up or simply getting him at #34, I'd be well pleased. The best scenario would of course be to get him at #34. I have some confidence with the Blue Jackets in this though, as they have been good at drafting Russians lately and will have a much better gauge of his ranking than I do.


Nice! I haven't been looking at many players beyond the top-10 yet, so I'll for sure have to check him out.
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