Jul. 8, 2022
Detroit Red Wings
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockey_Mind</b></div><div>You're basing that off of what some amateur bloggers have come up with. Try this:
5 expert mathematicians broke down the odds and results over the last 23 years and no team has had more chances at the top pick without winning than CBJ.
Here's a snippet in case you don't have a subscription:
"For most of the Blue Jackets’ existence, the NHL lottery rules stated that a club could move up only four spots via the lottery. So any team that finished higher than the fifth-worst record couldn’t land the No. 1 pick. Six times between 2001-13, the Jackets fell into this category.
But even in those seasons, the Blue Jackets still had a percentage chance to win the lottery and move higher in the lineup, and didn’t.
When you take all of the non-playoff seasons into account, according to our experts, the Blue Jackets have had a 77.3 percent chance to win the lottery at least once in those 16 opportunities.
In nine previous seasons, the Blue Jackets have finished low enough in the standings to have a chance at winning the first pick. Yes, they had a shot at Alex Ovechkin (2004), Sidney Crosby (2005), Auston Matthews (2016), etc.
This season, at 13.5 percent, marks the fourth-best chance the Blue Jackets have had at landing the No. 1 pick through the years.
In 2012, they had the best odds at 25.0 percent, but slid from No. 1 to No. 2. In 2002, the Jackets had an 18.8 percent chance to win the lottery, but slid from No. 2 to No. 3. In 2003, they had a 14.2 percent chance, but fell from No. 3 to No. 4.
When you consider all of the seasons in which the Blue Jackets could have landed the No. 1 pick, according to our experts, the Blue Jackets have had a 69.6 percent chance of doing so at least once.
If Anaheim wins this year’s lottery — they have the best chance at 25.5 percent — the Blue Jackets will long lament their 3-2 overtime win over the Penguins late this season, which moved them out of the pole position for the lottery.
Still, they head into this year’s lottery with the same optimism as ever. If the ping pong balls bounce their way, they could win Bedard. And if they don’t?
Well, according to our experts, another loss in the draft lottery this year would only make the Blue Jackets’ numbers (obviously) worse. They would have had a 73.7 percent chance likelihood of winning the No. 1 pick when you put this year’s chances into the mix.
Moser, the data scientist from Buffalo, took all of this a step further. He ran simulations for all of the draft lotteries dating back to 2001 to determine which franchise across the entire NHL has had the most “expected” lottery wins based on their yearly finish in the standings.
“This way,” Moser said, “we could tell just how ‘unlucky’ the Blue Jackets are compared to their peers.”
There are four teams in the same realm with the most “expected” lottery wins: Edmonton (1.4), Columbus and Florida (1.38), and Buffalo (1.37). What stands out is that Edmonton has won four lotteries. Florida has won three. Buffalo has won two. Columbus has won zero.
The Blue Jackets, Moser said, have been the NHL’s most unlucky club when it comes to the draft lottery with 1.38 fewer lottery wins than expected, or -1.38. The other clubs with a similar beef to the Blue Jackets are Arizona (-1.08), Los Angeles (-0.85), Ottawa (-0.75), and Carolina (-0.74).
So, there it is. The Blue Jackets being unlucky in the lottery isn’t just a feeling. It’s a fact."</div></div>
Gary doesn't want top stars in Columbus or Arizona. That might grow the markets there and be good for business. Dumb*** executives like him don't know anything and just want to have control and help their rich buddies.