SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

AirmanSD

Member Since
Aug. 11, 2020
Favourite Team
Detroit Red Wings
Forum Posts
105
Posts per Day
0.1
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19, 2021 at 2:25 p.m.
Thread: Just a dumb random thought
There are a lot of moving parts to that Wings trade. Are the wings simply looking to get to the floor over the next two years? Are they actually going to try and use Neal in any way or simply cap hit? I would wager that the wings will have zero trouble getting to the floor, either by taking on shorter term dumps (Ericksson type) or by signing place holders. The Wings have 36 million of cap hits currently, have to resign both Bert and Hronek and 12 other players. They will have no problem spending the 24 million or so to get to the floor, so that wont be a motivation for the Wings in this deal.

The Wings are not going to trade for Neal to buy him out, he adds to much dead money for too long for that to be realistic.

The value of the picks in question is highly dependent on the view of the draft class in question. I have no idea how the Wings view this draft class maybe it works cause the wings like a player that is expected to go in that mid 20's that they would like to get. But it could also be that wings think that there is better value in the 2nd round and have more shots at that. I can not tell you the value the wings how for this draft so chart of "pick value" will either. This year is even worse in that teams may not want to have fewer higher picks since there has been so little time for scouting.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 27, 2020 at 12:32 p.m.
Thread: Under cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bolts20Cup</b></div><div>Nobody thought VGK was going to take Jason Garrison but the lightning pop the second and fourth and seventh round draft pick they had taken Nikita Gusev . Think that’ll be a pretty doable trade especially since Johnson’s from Seattle is a Stanley Cup champion he still not a slug he’s not a player he was back in 15 but he still a very good third line center we got Stanley cup experience he’s from the area can help promote it like Wade Boggs with the Tampa Bay Devil rays back in the day</div></div>

Jason Garrison had one season left at 4.6 cap hit, not 5mil for 3 years. It cost a 2nd a 4th and a top prospect to take 1 year of 4.6. Yes Johnson has more value then Garrison but not at that term (as shown by going unclaimed on waivers) . If the another teams offer something to take on cap, something that a lot of teams might need to do, it could very well cost more than that to have them take Johnson. What you are saying is possible but I would not count on Seattle bailing you out of this. Also with possibility of no cap increases over the next several year could make Seattle leery of taking on the term (which is why I believe the Red Wings haven't taken him on)

The point is you are going to have to trade someone at some point to get cap compliant this year or next and Seattle and every team out there knows it.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 27, 2020 at 11:19 a.m.
Thread: Under cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bolts20Cup</b></div><div>Burying it and having him for he end of he year playoff run is better than giving him and a pick away. Then come expansion draft you convince Seattle to bring him home keeping rest of team in tact</div></div>

This is where you are going to run into a slight problem with Seattle. Protection and them taking Johnson. If the rules are the same as Vegas and I believe they are, you can protect 7F/3D/1G or 8S/1G and that leaves you a problem. If you want to protect all of Hedman/Sergachev/Cernak and Foote (Yes, Foote will have to be protected) you can only protect 4 forwards Stamkos/Kucherov have to be protected, you would think other two would be Point/Cirelli. That leaves good young players like Barré-Boulet or Volkov open, the draft is not going to help you, it will hurt. And Tampa is one of the few teams where good younger players will be readily available from so they are going to ask for a premium to pass on that. They dont need to take on Johnson's contract to get a good young players from Tampa they simply have to chose the young player freeing them to take a bad contract from another team for a player/prospect/picks that they want.

Its either this year or next year you are going to have trade value to get out of some of those contracts. It could go either way, Johnson/Killorn/Gourde could all have great and maybe lower the cost of moving one or two of them (or positive value for them), or they can have bad years and increase the cost to move them.

I just can not see Seattle letting the one one team they have over the barrel off without some massive upside for them.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2020 at 7:22 p.m.
Thread: Disappointing but probably realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Nope. It was TJ+Raddysh+1st from the get go. Think that'll be the absolute maximum what Tampa is willing to pay. Raddysh can be replaced with Alnefelt should it come to that, but DET has a lot of goalie prospects as well I think.</div></div>

I am just going to copy and paste this from another thread cause its still valid.

We keep seeing this trade rumor in several forms coming out but nothing actually happening. I get the feeling that the wings and lightning are not on the same page value wise on a deal involving Johnson. Its going to either cost a lot more than the rumored packages or maybe there is no deal to be made. From the wings perspective there is no point in committing to a player for more years than anyone other than Mantha on the roster at this time, and certainly not someone in their 30's. Why do it? He isn't going to make the team competitive and if you want veteran leadership is currently cheap to sign via FA. The bought out Abby not to cap reasons but for the roster spot and contract slot that he had (remember 50 limit), it seems counter-productive to then get a player who also doesn't fit your long term plans (yes is better then Abby, but so are a slew of young guys that need the playing time).

Another point against a deal is the term, since there are so many unknowns at this time about the effect long term on the salary cap, we know that for the next 2 season it will be flat, but if it stays flat after that? The wings plan is to build through the draft and let core develop, well what happens in 2-3 years if they do and this contract is still on the books in a flat cap? Its not about this season or next for the Wings its about after that. None of these deal take that into consideration.

I think that the Stevie Y stated goal of improvement while keeping flexibility of the roster is counter to a Johnson trade. At least in the rumored variety. I believe it will cost far more then the Lightning want to pay and so no deal will come. A late first in a so-so draft is not likely to change much for the Wings longer term, especially since they have 3 2nds in the draft, to warrant taking on the contract or more accurately the term.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsDec. 18, 2020 at 3:15 a.m.
Thread: Tyler Johnson trade
We keep seeing this trade rumor in varies forms coming out but nothing actually happening. I get the feeling that the wings and lightning are not on the same page value wise on a deal involving Johnson. Its going to either cost a lot more than the rumored packages or maybe there is no deal to be made. From the wings perspective there is no point in committing to a player for more years than anyone other than Mantha on the roster at this time, and certainly not someone in their 30's. Why do it? He isn't going to make the team competitive and if you want veteran leadership is currently cheap to sign via FA. The bought out Abby not to cap reasons but for the roster spot and contract slot that he had (remember 50 limit), it seems counter-productive to then get a player who also doesn't fit your long term plans (yes is better then Abby, but so are a slew of young guys that need the playing time).

Another point against a deal is the term, since there are so many unknowns at this time about the effect long term on the salary cap, we know that for the next 2 season it will be flat, but if it stays flat after that? The wings plan is to build through the draft and let core develop, well what happens in 2-3 years if they do and this contract is still on the books in a flat cap? Its not about this season or next for the Wings its about after that. None of these deal take that into consideration.

I think that the Stevie Y stated goal of improvement while keeping flexibility of the roster is counter to a Johnson trade. At least in the rumored variety. I believe it will cost far more then the Lightning want to pay and so no deal will come. A late first in a so-so draft is not likely to change much for the Wings longer term, especially since they have 3 2nds in the draft, to warrant taking on the contract or more accurently the term.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 28, 2020 at 9:30 p.m.
Thread: Dump Boychuk bridge Barzy
I am not going to pretend to know what the cost of moving Boychuk is going to be, at 36 and with two years left on his deal you are going to find it hard to trade normally. But with him controlling his fate its even harder, 8 team trade list and if he is smart he will have picked teams that can not take his contract to give himself leverage. He most likely wants to go to a contender which means a buyout something that the wings can not do now unless the islanders do it after Pulock's case. Thats the problem, if you do get him to allow a trade to a team like the Red Wings you wont have any leverage at all, and that only increases the cost of dealing him. So i agree with other Red Wings fans that it is likely to cost more then a simple first round pick to trade him.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 22, 2020 at 7:28 a.m.
Thread: Musing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HypotheticalImpossibility</b></div><div>Wings fan here. Yes, you're over market value for a player of Larkin's caliber, in my opinion, but hard pass. Larkin is untouchable because of what he means to the franchise.
Full explanation here, Larkin is the ONLY Top 6 center in the Wings organization. Veleno is the closest possible center, but he's more of a 3C with possible, unlikely-to-reach 2C potential. None of the other center prospects in the Wings' organization are likely to be as close as Larkin is. Gambling on Norris becoming as good as Larkin is too risky of a move for a team that just had the worst season in the salary cap era.
Top that off with Larkin being a hometown kid, grew up a Wings fan, and is a shoo-in for captain next season. There's a very good argument that he's not even the best forward on the Wings, but his work ethic, leadership, and attitude are what the Wings want to build around. He'll likely be a 2C by the time the Wings are playoff regulars, but will still be the leader on and off the ice. *rant over*
Kudos for not offering garbage for Larkin though.</div></div>

This sums it up well.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 21, 2020 at 2:29 p.m.
Thread: The Tampa Puzzle
The Detroit deal does not add up. I think if Johnson had two years remaining at his current AAV that could work maybe just the first. But at 30 and already showing signs of wear (common with the style of hockey he plays) the fact that he has 4 years remaining at that AAV is a massive problem. It is more that fact then any why no team took him off waivers. He can still be a productive if over paid player for the next year or two, but the last two years are simple scary. I can not see the Red Wings agreeing to take his contract on unless they get two high end pieces back (hell he signed longer term then Larkin)

The Lightning are not going to want to meet the price that the Red Wings are likely to ask for, and its not the player nor the cap hit that the cause, but the term that holds it back. The Red Wings are just starting to get out from a lot of long term deals that handicapped them for a time, and are not going to be looking to return to that situation in a hurry.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsOct. 18, 2020 at 12:47 a.m.
Thread: WPG stays competitve TBL dumps cap DET rebuilds
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mellowkero</b></div><div>DET isn't giving up any 1st-round picks, my friend; only a 2nd and a 3rd. I would argue that Cal Foote is a good defensive prospect, as well. They get a young, high-scoring winger that is a direct upgrade to Mantha and a decent defensive piece for taking two cap dumps and giving up two picks. I was considering Rasmussen over Veleno, but I don't think WPG would go for it. If they would, then absolutely swap those two.

WPG is losing a very young and very good player (Laine) as well as a promising defensive prospect (Heinola) to get Veleno, Stamkos (who is aging and seems injury-prone but brings success and leadership) and a 1st. I feel like that's a pretty fair trade-off.

TBL gets to dump Johnson and Stamkos in order to make room for Sergachev and Cirelli; however, they'll also need to sign Mantha, who has no cap hit right now because he's an RFA. That COULD be a sign-and-trade situation right there. I can't imagine him getting more than $6.5/year. The guy is a really good player, but he can't stay healthy for a full season. They're also getting Heinola, who, like I said before, is a very promising defenseman who is still on his entry-level deal. That would give them some more time to move pieces around in order to retain him.</div></div>

Well think of it thsis way. What is Detroit getting for taking on the cap dumps?

Mantha, Veleno and the 2 picks for Lanie and Foote might favor Det slightly, but that doesnt nearly make up for the massive amount of cap you have dumped on them. IF the wings were merely taking on Perreault i could maybe say ok might be fair, but Johnson and his 4 years @ 5 is simply too much for too long to even remotely think about this without major assets coming their way.

What would the cost of cost to dump Johnson be without getting anything back? What is the cost to dump Perreault be without getting anything back? As wings fan I personally dont want any part of Johnson's contract it is simply too much term but if you had to take him at least 2 blue chip pieces (1st/top prospect) better be coming with him or have TB hold that deal. Perreault I would take for a 2nd, but I dont think WPG is that desperate to move him.

So what would the wings truly be gaining here? They get an upgrade on the wing and another part of their d core. But for that they lose a good younger center (a position of need for Det unlike wing) and two picks in front part of the draft. Plus the lose 9.1 million in cap space for a year and 5 million each of the next 3 years. There is simply not enough of an upgrade to make this trade for Detroit.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 16, 2020 at 4:36 a.m.
Thread: Rangers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Theozler</b></div><div>Do cap bonuses not carry over if needed? I thought they did</div></div>

Bonuses Overages can carry over. The bonus cushion is a fix amount each year 7.5% of the cap or this year 6.1 million. If you have bonuses that exceed that amount then they are counted as cap hits. You can see on the Rangers tab under teams they number in red at the top Bonus Cushion Penalty, that is the amount that they have to be under the cap to be legal. A team can have more bonuses then the limit, but any bonuses over the limit are counted as cap hits this season, no deferring (without being a real cap hit, hence not listed on the bottom of the rangers page) . So the Rangers would need a min of 4.2 million in cap space to have Miller join the team, and if Kravtsov makes the team it would need to be at least slightly over 5. And the Rangers are going to need more space then that since the way the CBA is written they will be unable to use LTIR if they are over the bonuses cushion, since LTIR is only for exceeding the cap and the Rangers will not be able to approach the cap. (so they can not get relief for injuries if they push it to the max., and adding any young players with bonuses to replace them only makes the problem worse)

The down side of many young players with major bonuses.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 6, 2020 at 4:51 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 3, 2020 at 11:06 a.m.
Thread: So many bad Murray trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>My man, I'm seriously trying to help you so that you can learn. Right now you're just saying JR is going to screw everyone over because he's JR and everyone should help PIT. The minimum Qualifying offer PIT can offer is $3,750,000 because that was his previous contract. Murray's not going to accept that. Why would he? He can always accept that later after arbitration. There's nothing stopping him from signing a smaller deal. But again what's stopping him from filing for arbitration? He's already giving PIT the hometown discount. That was his last contract. Now it's his turn to get paid.

The 2nd part is this is the single worst goalie market in the history of the NHL. Just because someone gets X amount of money doesn't mean they're worth it and it doesn't mean they have the cap space avialable. You can't just say this is the offer sheet value so that's what they're worth. Do you think Seabs is worth a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd? No. I can understand that.

Think about the timing now. UFAs open up October 9th. Lost of teams will start to figure out their situations. Probably not 100% of them, but alot of them. So the already worst goalie market in history is going to get even worse by the time JR even knows what his options are for Murray. Do you honestly think you'll get "fair value" when there's only one team looking?</div></div>

This is a very accurate picture of this situation. Murry has zero incentive to give the Pens anything, he is arb eligible and can use that to take a short term contract to take him to UFA. He knows he is looking at a contract in the 4 to 6 million dollar range for one/two years, he isnt going to be giving the pens any kind of leverage over that. That is why I am not a fan of the Red Wings trading for him, he isnt signing longer term coming off his worse season and the flat cap, he is better off taking a short deal to UFA and taking on the open market with the hopeful rebound in revenue.

As for JJ to the wings I dont get why they would pay any sort of "market" rate for him, they can target other teams in cap hell before giving up a high pick. They have already come out and said they are not trading picks this year and are hopeful to add more. Even for a prospect like POJ they would take the the deal like JJ/POJ without the pick given up. They simply are not in the market for giving up long term assets even if they are getting other long term assets. For the Wings there is too many teams looking to shed cap that can giving them more without them giving up anything. Unless they believe that POJ is a top pairing D, then maybe they do it but I dont think anyone other then Pen fans think that, most see him a solid 2nd pairing.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 2, 2020 at 12:10 p.m.
Thread: pettersson and dumoulin are still young
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sid_not_the_kid_any_more_but_the_god</b></div><div>oilers take it and run they need a player to play alongside mcdavid on the left, and the redwings also accept because svench didnt improve in detroit and this trade gives him a second chance and murray is probably the best option for the wings.</div></div>

Sigh. The wings are NOT looking to upgrade goaltending SHORT TERM. If you can sign Murry to a reasonable deal before dealing him that might (might) work for Det. Murry controls his fate at this point with arb rights, can force a two year deal and then walk as a UFA. But the wings will not to taking on the risk that he asks for a short term deal, so the pens would have to sign him first.

Also just cause the value for a player is thought to be one thing doesnt make him that value to all teams. Personally no I would not do this deal as I worry that Murry would not improve the team long term. I wouldn't be upset if the wings trading a 3rd for him not I dont value him at the 2 2nds that seems to be Pens fans value.

In the press conference the other day it was made clear the longer the term on the dump the higher to cost, thats what makes figuring a Johnson deal to Det hard. Also the made clear they are looking to sign a backup goalie for next season on the UFA market. Reading between the lines the wings figure that next year with the expansion draft they will find a better deal on a long term goalie.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 25, 2020 at 4:17 p.m.
Thread: This Team is Getting Ruined
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>A two time cup winner not worth a second... lmfao good one</div></div>

The Red Wings are not trading for his past. Him winning the cup is nice but the Wings would be more interested in what he would be able to produce for them. Over the last three years he has gone from average to above average to near horrible (the Wings had Howard to watch last year but really want a repeat). Which Murry are they getting, from the wings prospective it only makes sense if can return to form which at this time is not assured. So for rebuilding team who isnt likely to be good in the short term regardless (at 2 years away) why trade a high value asset like a 2nd for a player who may not be there when they are competitive again, or just sign a goalie on the market for cheaper? So no he is not worth a 2nd to the Wings, and i wouldnt want the wings to trade for him if thats the ask, let Seattle have him for free next year.

These deals are not done in a vacuum they have to take into consideration what the other team would want. And JJ contract is way worse than Orpik's was in addition to the flat cap that has to be considered now. There is a reason they Pens only got a conditional 7th while retaining half on Bjugstad, it is not going to be easy to dump cap this year.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 25, 2020 at 5:44 a.m.
Thread: This Team is Getting Ruined
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>you say this team is getting ruined though your user name is "leafs and sens fan". you should know the definition of a team getting ruined. Pittsburgh aint it, despite the questionable moves. and that murray trade is bad for pit, even with dumping JJ we can get a better return than helm</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chigurrhh</b></div><div>That's a completely different situation. Colorado had a ton of cap room and money wasn't as tight as it is now. Orpik only had one season left. Jack has three.

A buyout for Orpik at the time looked like this.

<img class="for_img" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7Fprbv-WDyTVMUO_DNXTlGDkP4s=/0x0:2461x270/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2461x270):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11586801/Capture.PNG" alt="Capture.PNG">



A buyout for Jack looks like this.

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/jWoFBkG.png" alt="jWoFBkG.png"></div></div>


This. The red wings would taking on either 3 or 6 years of cap hits. That is far different plus with the flat cap its harder then ever to allow for longer term dead money.

Also I dont think Murry himself is worth a second maybe a third, so another piece or two would have be used to entice det to take on Johnson.