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Billius
Leafs Fan
Member Since
Jun. 15, 2017
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forum Posts
324
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 11, 2017 at 5:39 p.m.
Thread:
Maple Leafs w/ Athanasiou
The more I have thought about it, due to future UFA's, bonus overages, and ELC players getting new deals, the more I believe this is the year Leafs management will make a big push. So trading JVR, Bozak, or Komarov looks a lot less likely to me now that it did just a couple months ago. If they do make a trade it will be to strengthen this year's club which means: defense.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 11, 2017 at 5:33 p.m.
Thread:
Minor Turnover
Yep, good analysis. This would be more or less how they do it. It's not sexy but it helps set up 2019-20. I think you meant to label the bonus overage 2017-18. I'm hopeful that Willie signs for around $7M, Martin is traded to make some room, and Pickard plays good enough to be the backup.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 9, 2017 at 11:37 a.m.
Thread:
Doug and other Leafs fans
Yes, the situation is so dire that Leafs management are only left with $4.55M in cap room now.
Lou has a little smile on his face, you know, that Mona Lisa secret smile. The one that says "I have Pridham managing my Cap."
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 9, 2017 at 10:53 a.m.
Thread:
Trade deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I really can't see this for the Leafs. Although Gauthier, Rychel and Soshnikov has little value in an NHL trades, I don't know if Barrie's play is worth his 5.5m cap hit. And since the Leafs need cap space next year to clear space for the big three signings in 2019, i imagine the Leafs would prefer Borgman and his salary over Barrie. Barrie's speciality is the PP and the Leafs don't his help in that area.</div></div>
I agree with palhal, I just don't think Tyson's offense is what Leafs need most. Just not a good fit,
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 9, 2017 at 10:47 a.m.
Thread:
Doughty
I love these trade debates over Doughty with my morning coffee. :)
My thoughts:
+ The next two years is the big window for the Leafs so Doughty fits that and he could be the difference in a playoff run.
+ Doug, I would make that trade if I were the Leafs, JVR going opens room for Kapanen. They lose some sweet production this year from JVR but it's worth Doughty for these two years. Nothing they are giving up is critical to their future. +
- I don't see LA trading Doughty since he is a franchise defensemen and they haven't given up hope that they can win another Cup with Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, and Carter. Why should they blow up their chances? JVR, Bracco, and Dermott can't replace Doughty in the playoffs.
Overall, there's a lot that is tempting here for the Leafs because realistically Leafs without Doughty are a good team but with Doughty they become a GREAT team.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 9, 2017 at 10:24 a.m.
Thread:
When Doughty Comes
I'd guess that Doughty's minimum salary is $8, more likely around $9 but $8 is possible.
Top AAV for defensemen:
Subban 9
Burns 8
Hedman 7.875
Weber 7.857
Matthews at $10M would be nice for the Leafs but with McDavid 12.5, Draisatl at 11.3 and Toews at 10.5, he could easily have a deal north of 11 now that Eichel signed for 10.
Do Leafs really want Nash at his age and production given their winger depth?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 8, 2017 at 11:17 p.m.
Thread:
2 Nights In A Row; We Lose Even Though We Were The Better Team
4 goals in 3 games? Can't win games that way.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 8, 2017 at 11:10 p.m.
Thread:
Welcome to Mtl Tavares
If Isles decide they can't re-sign Tavares, they will look for the best deal from probably 6-8 teams that would be serious bidders. Also, let's be realistic. Tavares can get $10M per year. So my guess would be Montreal would have to trade 2 1st round picks plus a top player or a third #1 pick. There aren't many choices - Pacioretty or Drouin, and one or both may have NYI as a place they won't agree to go to.
At the end of the day, are the Canadiens better off making such a trade? They might prefer to keep waiting until a top center UFA is available on July 1st, like Stamkos was a couple years ago.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 7, 2017 at 11:55 a.m.
Thread:
2019-20: Again People... Our Cap Is Not Going To Be An Issue
Yes, it's possible to squeeze through. Although it would be a "Miro-cle" to get an ex KHL player signed for $1M. Try 2 or 2.5 if he's any good. The two swedes are on the low side as well imo, assuming they earned those spots and aren't marginal temp players.
But the biggest headache will be trying to absorb all the ELC bonuses in 2018-19, let alone the huge carryover from this season to 2018.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 7, 2017 at 9:49 a.m.
Thread:
JT forget the Leafs... you would be 2nd center
JT, good toranna boy, don't go to the Habs. ;-)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 6, 2017 at 9:57 p.m.
Thread:
With no carryover bonuses from 2018/19.
Big 3 salaries look realistic as of now.
So you're saying we can't re-sign Gardiner once we pay the Swedish twins? That will really hurt the Leafs imo.
Maybe we can't sign both Swedes or we sign one to a short term 'Lou' deal?
Doubtful Lil is in the top pair at age 20, he will need more seasoning in 3rd pair first. You're pretty high on him?
The more I think about things, the more I think we have to really push this year because losing JVR/Bozak/Komarov is going to slow us down in 2018-19 and 2019-20 can't have that level of surrounding talent anymore, it's more the young prospects taking those spots around the Big 3.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 6, 2017 at 9:46 p.m.
Thread:
Going Whole Hog
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Doug7004</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Leafs can't afford Ekblad's 7.5m cap hit in future years. And no team is going is going to give up so much for the Ekblad. He was average at best last year, partly due to injuries. He has to prove to other he is worth that contract. Why is it the Leafs are the only team that have to give up so much in Ekbald or Doughty trades?
And it really isn't having the Leafs going in "whole hog." Bozak and JVR are needed by the Leafs this year. So the Leafs trade two pieces for one piece for this year, plus futures?
Why would the Leafs trade a 3rd rounder for Pickard. He was placed on waivers with no takers. What goalie does Pickard replace?</div></div>
Pal: there's your answer. . . .Leafs waited till they could bring in Pickard and send him to the Marlies while they can assess without having to waive anyone. Great deal for Leafs for basically a guy (Lindberg) that would never have cracked the lineup, and can probably play for Vegas!</div></div>
Doug, that deal was sweet. Lou played it like a poker player, letting McPhee sweat out the week. A 6th and #14 in the Leaf's LW depth chart is a smackdown.
Forum:
NHL
Oct. 6, 2017 at 9:34 p.m.
Thread:
Can Pickard Become a Starter in the Future?
It's possible. I'll tell you why. Last year was a tire fire in Colorado and anyone who watched the Leafs over the years knows if the defense sucks, the goalie will get killed. Despite that, Pickard had a .904 sv % which is low but not what I would have expected and his sv % was better than the others in Colorado.
Looking at his whole body of work, so far he has ranked 50th on goals saved above expected (from modeling of shot difficulty). That's out of 68 NHL goalies. If he is given a better defense, I could see that ranking rise. In the World Championships where he had a much better defense, he allowed 1 goal in 2 games in 2016 then in 2017 had a .938 save % in 7 games.
He's only 25, that's not that old for goalies to still develop. More likely he ends up being a solid backup but there's a chance he could be a starter in the future.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 6, 2017 at 9:03 p.m.
Thread:
When Schlemko Gets Back
I think Schlemko is an excellent prospect, wish my team could have snagged him. I'd love to see him get in 25-30 game this year at least.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 6, 2017 at 8:59 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 17-18
Today the Leafs buried Marincin and brought up Rosen. Gauthier is on SOIR on the Marlies right now. Pickard is also starting on the Marlies in the AHL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 5, 2017 at 4:07 p.m.
Thread:
Pickard
Yep good idea if he isn't picked up by a lower team first.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 5, 2017 at 3:57 p.m.
Thread:
How I would set up lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oiler3535</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Gee, after 7 - 2 Victory last night, I'll stick to Babcock's version.</div></div>
Lol. I make a bunch of these for fun, and look at lots of other peoples'. You ever made a positive comment on a Leaf roster?
Billius, I don’t think the Bonus applies this year. Same reason for the big 5+ penalty, which is from last year. If under the cap the bonus would count this year, but because they’re over the cap using LTIR, it will have to count against next year's cap. As for ice time issue, I see what you mean, but think rolling 4 lines will devastate other teams to the point our guys will get more out of their shifts, and it will keep them fresh for playoffs.
Doug, I’d be entirely okay with switching Komarov and Brown. Would fit Babs' love of having a grinder with skill players.</div></div>
I should have explained further. The 7.1M in bonuses would normally be an overage and rollover to next year as you said. But 7.1M - (7.5% of 75M cap) is considered excess. That $1.475M is considered a penalty and is charged automatically to this year's cap. It's in the CBA but not in CF yet.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 5, 2017 at 9:52 a.m.
Thread:
How I would set up lines
I think we could see some of those suggestions in the future. Only problem with rolling 4 lines is that the Big3 get less ice time and their icetime is already below average....
FWIW I explained elsewhere, but you'll need to create a "player" to account for a cap penalty for every Bonus $ over $5,625,000. You're at $7,100,000. CF doesn't handle it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 5, 2017 at 9:41 a.m.
Thread:
Cap Crunch
Good exercise to work on. Few minor comments:
Bad news:
- If the Leafs use Horton's LTIR in 2018-19, then they will have bonus overages of well over $5 million to deal with in 2019-20, so need to work with $5M less at least.
- Leivo won't sign to be around as a reserve, play him or lose him.
- Aaltonen has KHL option, he won't sign for $1M. He will make $1.75M this year if he gets his bonuses.
- Realistically Timmy will need 2 years in minors and start at 3rd pair in 2019-2020
- Need better than a 4th round pick for a team to take Marleau.
- You need to add one more to roster.
- Take a peek at 2020, be sure there is a plan to handle expiring RFA's
Good news:
- Kapanen likely signed for less (look at Brown)
- Gardiner likely signed for around 6.
-
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 4, 2017 at 6:29 p.m.
Thread:
2017-18 Leafs Confirmed Starting Lineup/Special Teams
Haha well CF is a fun way to pass time in the offseason, now it's time to watch real hockey. Go Leafs!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 4, 2017 at 5:52 p.m.
Thread:
2017-18 Leafs Confirmed Starting Lineup/Special Teams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>The real reason that Aaltonen is not on the roster, is that the Leafs have 23 players on the roster not counting Horton. So the fact is, Aaltonen did not make the 23 player roster. By your post are you saying that the Leafs can use this current season performance bonus in 2017/2018, because Horton will be going on LTIR after game one?</div></div>
Short answer is that in this unique situation the Leafs would be "charged" excess bonus in-season, whether achieved by player or not, as a "penalty".
More on this rare situation:
If the Leafs had, say, preferred to have Aaltonen in the starting 23 man roster instead of Fehr (for example), Aaltonen's ELC bonus of $850K would have sent their total ELC bonuses to $6.25M. That's over the 7.5% of Cap allowed for bonuses so a "Cap Penalty" of $625K would have been assigned. Besides the penalty, the Leafs cap hit would then have been more than what one LTIR could cover and they would have had to use the 2nd LTIR to be cap compliant. But doing that at the start of the season would have "wasted" most of the Cap relief a 2nd LTIR could provide.
As the season goes on, the daily salary cap is calculated and eventually it opens up more accumulated room to allow for the $625K penalty, without using the 2nd LTIR. That's what I meant. The Leafs will want to be able to juggle their roster and have a new large salary incoming before using the second LTIR. (Horton is the second LTIR because Lupul's has been used as of 5pm last night.)
The interesting thing is this may also have affected the decision to include both Borgman and Rosen on the opening roster. Because any two of (Aaltonen, Borgman, Rosen) creates a $625K "Cap Penalty". In fact, if the Leafs have all 3 join the roster, they incur a penalty of $1.475M against their cap. This penalty does not depend on whether the players reach their bonus targets, so I believe (not certain) that as soon as a 2nd or 3rd plays a game on the roster, the cap penalty is assigned for the season. I have messaged CapFriendly and they stated that IF the Leafs do have such a Cap Penalty, they will then reflect it on the Leafs CF page.
EDIT: I don't pretend to be an expert, this is my understanding after reading others on r/Leafs, E. Schwartz article on PPP, my own reading of CBA and latest CBA FAQ on CF.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 3, 2017 at 9:46 p.m.
Thread:
Cap Issues and no Cups
Eichel $10M, McDavid $12.5M means Matthews is probably halfway in between, so $11.25M would be my guess.
Nylander is likely around $7M, Marner might end up a little less depending on his year.
If Gardiner has a good year, I'd say he gets something like 6 x $5.8M
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 3, 2017 at 5:39 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs trade with VGK
Not bad thinking, Pickard would be an upgrade on McBackup. Miller has brilliant fancy stats but he was very sheltered in his usage on a high possession team. To me, he's probably Carrick-level but it's a big unknown.
Anyone who trades Matt Martin deserves 5 stars!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 3, 2017 at 5:34 p.m.
Thread:
Free Josh Leivo
I like your description.
Here's an aaltonen idea: you could send Komar off and Leave Leivo.
There's a High-man on the left side of the lineup that could move to the right side too. Or create a Welcome Matt for Leivo on the 4th line.
I think any of those would be Fehr.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 3, 2017 at 5:27 p.m.
Thread:
Accurate Cap after Lupul
I could see Leafs triggering Lupul's LTIR of $5.25M now. That would be more efficient than using Horton's $5.3M.
I don't think they would want to use Horton's LTIR until they have a trade with a big cap hit that would send them well-over $75M? Maybe at the trade deadline?
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