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CSStrowbridge
Member Since
Jul. 28, 2021
Favourite Team
Vancouver Canucks
Forum Posts
1127
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
NHL Signings
Dec. 31, 2023 at 1:47 p.m.
Thread:
Washington Capitals signed Ethan Bear (2 Years / $2,062,500 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Should have gone 1-year</div></div>
He refused to sign for one year and there were plenty of teams looking for defencemen, so he was going to get his two years.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Dec. 28, 2023 at 3:46 p.m.
Thread:
Washington Capitals signed Ethan Bear (2 Years / $2,062,500 AAV)
I think he's underrated defensively and as long as he's fully healed, then he will earn this paycheck. Good signing.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 23, 2023 at 10:09 a.m.
Thread:
(WPG/LAK) - Dubois for Iafallo, Kupari, Vilardi, 2024 2nd (MTL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>Cam Talbot is having his best season since his rookie year. If he slips to his career average, or is injured, then LA is in trouble.
But back to PLD, his point-per-game average is close to the lowest in his career and his on-ice goal differential is 7.5 below expected. According to The Athletic, his market value is $4.0 million, less than half of what he's being paid.</div></div>
It has been less than ten days since I wrote this and PLD's on-ice goal differential has fallen to 9.8 below expected.
He's on an 82-game pace for 14 goal, 20 assists, and an on-ice goal differential 27.7 below expected.
And he's getting paid $8.5 million this season and the next seven.
I'd rather have Kupari at $1 million than PLD at $8.5 million.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 21, 2023 at 2:12 a.m.
Thread:
(COL/SEA) - Tatar for 2024 5th (SEA)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>1. It took Tatar 10 weeks from the start of free agency to sign for only 1.5 million on a 1 year deal.
He's not exactly a hot commodity.
</div></div>
That's because very few teams had the cap room to sign him. Colorado got him at a bargain price.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>
3. Tatar's "bread and butter" is what he produces offensively.
He scored just 1 goal in 27 games with Colorado, was on pace for only 27 points and was playing only 11 minutes a night.
</div></div>
27 points and an even on-ice goal differential above expected is worth more than $1.5 million. They gave away a player that was outperforming their contract for a draft pick that will likely never play for them.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 21, 2023 at 2:06 a.m.
Thread:
(COL/SEA) - Tatar for 2024 5th (SEA)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>or maybe they will trade the fifth for a guy who will have more point that tatar.</div></div>
So they have to hope someone else makes a worse trade than they just did.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:41 p.m.
Thread:
(COL/SEA) - Tatar for 2024 5th (SEA)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>im just saying you cant simplify picks values by only using the chances of them turning into an nhl players.
here is another circular reasoning that you will like! You say GMs overvalue pick. therefore picks are valuable, because GMs value them.</div></div>
Not all GMs overvalue picks like this. Toronto was smart to give away a 4th for Luke Schenn. Vancouver was smart to give away a 5th for Laffery. Seattle was smart to give away a 5th for Tatar.
Tatar already has 2 points with Seattle and I bet if we come back to this trade if 5 years, whoever Colorado drafts will have earned less than 2 points in the NHL. There is a good chance they won't have even signed an ELC.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:35 p.m.
Thread:
(COL/SEA) - Tatar for 2024 5th (SEA)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>Alright then.
What do you think would be a fair trade for someone like Tatar ?</div></div>
A third or a bottom-six RFA who can be an injury call-up.
Tatar isn't a cap dump. He was playing well enough in Colorado to earn his paycheck. They had no reason to trade him unless the trade made the team better. This doesn't.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 17, 2023 at 11:24 p.m.
Thread:
(COL/SEA) - Tatar for 2024 5th (SEA)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>That's about what I'd pay for Tatar at this stage in his career.
FWIW, it's also what Beauvillier and Lafferty were traded for recently.
Fair deal.</div></div>
Beauvillier was being paid $4.1 million and playing 4th line minutes. He was a cash dump of about $2.5 million and usually you have to pay to move a contract like that.
Toronto was about to lose Lafferty to waivers, so they had no bargaining power.
Tatar was only earning $1.5 million and earning his paycheck, more or less. Maybe he was worth $1.3 to $1.6 million. There's no reason to trade him. Only getting a 5th is basically nothing in return.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 17, 2023 at 11:19 p.m.
Thread:
(COL/SEA) - Tatar for 2024 5th (SEA)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>you know you can trade picks for players right. for a guy as good as tatar. (this is a good exemple) flawed analys! picks are more than draft position!</div></div>
Saying you can trade a 5th for a player as good as Tatar and that's why this is a fair trade is circular reasoning. By this argument, ALL trades are fair trades, because they happened. You should be able to get more than a 5th for Tatar and the only reason trades like this happen is because GMs are stupid and overvalue draft picks. And I'm not being some arrogant jerk who thinks he knows more than the GMs do. I'm looking at the experts who have researched this and have proven the GMs are overvaluing draft picks.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 15, 2023 at 8:00 p.m.
Thread:
(COL/SEA) - Tatar for 2024 5th (SEA)
A 5th round draft pick only has a 1 in 3 chance of playing a single game in the NHL and less than half that chance to play more than 200. Tatar will almost certainly play more games for Seattle this season than the draft pick will play for Colorado. Seattle wins.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 15, 2023 at 7:22 p.m.
Thread:
(SJS/VAN) - Cicek, 2024 6th (SJS) for Studnicka
Jack Studnicka really bounced back this year. He was one of the worst NHL players last year and was a liability nearly every game. However, he was too far down the depth chart to even be an injury call-up, as the Canucks picked up several depth pieces. The Canucks D is not as deep, so there's a slightly better shot Nick Cicek will play in the NHL than Studnicka did. So the Canucks got better.
On the other hand, San Jose is a weaker team and maybe Studnicka will get a call up and do okay.
Finally, the 6th round pick will almost certainly never sign a ELC, so it has no value outside of making trades like this.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Dec. 15, 2023 at 7:17 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Ethan Gauthier (3 Years / $950,000 AAV)
It's an ELC, the player is doing well in the Q, and Tampa has several contract slots left. There's ZERO reason to vote no.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 14, 2023 at 1:25 a.m.
Thread:
(VAN/CHI) - Beauvillier for 2024 5th (CGY/CHI)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>He looked good in his ONE GAME so fair, but he can't play in the States due to a visa issue. ... HOW!? He didn't have that problem with the Canucks, so I don't see what the issue is.</div></div>
Ten days later and Anthony Beauvillier has just 1 goal in six games and his on-ice goal differential is 1.4 below expected in those games. What happened? He was playing better with mostly 4th line minutes in Vancouver.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 14, 2023 at 1:12 a.m.
Thread:
(WPG/LAK) - Dubois for Iafallo, Kupari, Vilardi, 2024 2nd (MTL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>I guess the only consolation for LA is that they're the best team in the league now.</div></div>
Cam Talbot is having his best season since his rookie year. If he slips to his career average, or is injured, then LA is in trouble.
But back to PLD, his point-per-game average is close to the lowest in his career and his on-ice goal differential is 7.5 below expected. According to The Athletic, his market value is $4.0 million, less than half of what he's being paid.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Dec. 13, 2023 at 5:35 a.m.
Thread:
Washington Capitals signed Clay Stevenson (3 Years / $775,000 AAV)
This is a great signing, even if they never make it past the AHL. If they are even a competent injury call-up, then this will be a fantastic signing.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 8, 2023 at 4:30 p.m.
Thread:
(CBJ/BUF) - Robinson for conditional 2025 7th (NSH)
Neither team is in cap hell, so the $1.6 million cap hit is meaningless. Robinson can play in the NHL and if he doesn't, then Buffalo gives up nothing. How can you argue they didn't win this trade? ... Okay, you could argue it is a mostly meaningless trade, so it is a fair deal. I don't get the people voting fro Columbus here.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 8, 2023 at 4:27 p.m.
Thread:
(STL/NYI) - Bortuzzo for 2024 7th (NYI)
The Islanders get a player who can play in the NHL and give up a draft pick who will likely never even sign an ECL. That's a win. It's a mostly meaningless win, but it's a win.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread:
Calgary Flames signed Mark Pysyk (1 Year / $775,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>I never understand why people vote no on Nhl minimum contracts.</div></div>
The only time I vote no is if the team is close to or at their 50-contract limit. Being at the limit could cause problems, as it did for the Leafs last year.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:36 p.m.
Thread:
(VAN/CHI) - Beauvillier for 2024 5th (CGY/CHI)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SadSensFan14</b></div><div>Chicago wins imo</div></div>
He looked good in his ONE GAME so fair, but he can't play in the States due to a visa issue. ... HOW!? He didn't have that problem with the Canucks, so I don't see what the issue is.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:30 p.m.
Thread:
(PIT/VAN) - Friedman, Glover for Plasek, Rathbone
This went from a fair trade to an easy Canucks win. Rathbone is doing worse in Wilkes-BarreScranton than he was in Abbotsford, while Freidman is defensively solid in Vancouver. He's not scoring many points, but you are not worried when he's on the ice either. I think every team would like someone like him on the 3rd pair.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:27 p.m.
Thread:
(TOR/VAN) - Lafferty for 2024 5th (VAN)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>This trade is looking pretty good for Vancouver now. Lafferty seems to be a good fit there.
It was nice to see Ryan Reaves get his first goal as a Leaf (and first Leafs' goal when he was on the ice) last week. Hopefully it's a sign of better things to come.</div></div>
I wasn't sure Latterty would fit with the Canucks, but I was wrong. He's on pace for about 40 points and he's been excellent defensively. This is an easy win for the Canucks and I hope they can resign him.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:22 p.m.
Thread:
(VAN/MTL) - Pearson, 2025 3rd (VAN) for DeSmith
After two months, Tanner Pearson has cooled off considerably and has just 2 points in his last 19 games and his on-ice goal differential has slipped to just 0.6 over expected. That's not enough for over $3 million. That wouldn't be enough for $1 million. On the other hand, DeSmith has played well enough to earn his paycheck and more.
So far, this is a Canucks win.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:13 p.m.
Thread:
(VAN/CHI) - Beauvillier for 2024 5th (CGY/CHI)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>zackhendo</b></div><div>Which trade has Alvin lost?</div></div>
He's been involved in 18 trades so far (Holy crap!) and I don't think he's truly lost any of them.
There have been a couple of trades that were weak. Riley Stillman didn't work and we gave up too much, even with the increased cap space. That said, Riley Stillman was later traded for Josh Bloom, so that might still work out. He gave up a 3rd for Travis Dermott, who was almost immediately injured, but that's just bad luck, not a bad trade.
Getting Stillman was a mistake and I would argue 10 of the 18 trades were fair, either because neither team benefited enough to matter or both teams benefited equally. The Canucks won the other 7, sometimes by large margins like the Horvat and Hronek trades.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Dec. 3, 2023 at 2:59 p.m.
Thread:
Montreal Canadiens signed Samuel Montembeault (3 Years / $3,150,000 AAV)
This is a good price for a 1B goalie ... Or it is a great deal if you are desperate for a new #1, because both of your goalies suck right now and you'd be willing to trade away your 1st round pick for a decent goalie.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Nov. 30, 2023 at 6:38 p.m.
Thread:
(CGY/VAN) - Zadorov for 2024 5th (CHI), 2026 3rd (VAN)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_Habs_fan</b></div><div>This is a fair deal though Calgary could get an L for mismanagement</div></div>
I was just talking this trade with my dad and we were saying Calgary looks dysfunctional right now and a lot of players could want out. Maybe this is a good thing for the Canucks and Zadorov will play much better here than he did in Calgary, because he will want to be here.
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