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Chiller

Brewmaster
Member Since
Jan. 10, 2019
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2019 at 4:47 p.m.
Thread: Marner bridge Healthy team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>So you think paying Nylander 7 millon $$$ hurt Nylander more than the TML? I think the opposite, i think noone wants Nylander for 7 million right now in the league... except if they dont have to give up huge assests. Last year everybody would take Nylander for 7 mill $$$. It will be really interesting how that contract will work in long run. I'm hoping for a bounce back season for Nylander, but you just never know.
Will Babcock put Nylander with Matthews again? And i mean almost 95%+ of Icetime. Nylander + Matthews together. What you think about this?</div></div>

Nylander at 7 sign me up. I can’t wait for next year him crushing it and getting 70ish points and everyone magically pretending they never thought he was bad. Can’t wait
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2019 at 4:45 p.m.
Thread: Marner bridge Healthy team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>WAAAT, if marner doesn't play, this season is donskies for TML. U catch my drift?
I think he is top 3 on team. Somebody would argue he is top2 for sure...
And you guys lost Kadri, no way u can take a chance without Marner.
This has to be done way much earlier, than the Nylander deal.
That would be a fail for your GM, if the exact same thing happening this year, except if its under 7 million @ 8 years... That contract would maybe worth it...but maybe not...
You guys wanna go further than Round 1 in the playoffs i thought... What if next year: BOS vs TOR again, without Marner: 4-3 Toronto? I don't think so...

But that's just seems impossible scenario at this time.
Most likely outcome 10.5 mililon @ 5-7 years, i don't think it's under 10. Just as i said last year about the Marner+Matthews+Kadri+Nylander+Tavares together, i said its not gonna happen. U guys thought im out of my mind... Well u can check where Kadri plays now... Similiar to Tampa: for this year we are fine, next year some guy who everybody likes with 40+ point has to go... Johnson,Gourde,Killorn,Palat etc... or we let valuable players go away, which we won't...


BTW: Nylander was a little diff situation: Nylander gets carried by Matthews.
Marner carries the line. It's much more important to have impact players on your team.

Marner in my eyes = Kane for Blackhawks, or Panarin for Columbus(now NY) etc... He is a must have player on your roster. Personally i really like him everytime i see him play. So yeah , i expect him to sign any contract in 2019 for sure...</div></div>


If you think Marner carries his line you are mistaken. Marner without JT had awful possession numbers all year round. Worst case they make eachother better, but JT has had a history of making al his line mates better and getting crazy overpaid deals when their contracts are up.

Nylander hd a bad year but him and Marner were neck and neck up until year 3. People discredit him on his line but give too much credit to Marner on his.

Imagine Instead of JT you have Kadri, kappy Hyman, mango. How many points would Marner have? My guess is a lot less. Maybe 80 at the high end. Because the pucks would bounc of of kadri/mango/Johnsson’s sticks, stakes, shin pads or they wouldn’t be in the right positions.

Marner is great but let’s stop pretending JT didn’t have a big effect on mariners point totals
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2019 at 4:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2019 at 4:11 p.m.
Thread: Is this accurate
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billius</b></div><div>I am just not buying the $11M figure for Marner. I still think he will be lucky to get $9.5M.

As for the lineup, I see Nick Shore taking the 4C job and I don't see Trevor Moore being bumped out of the lineup.</div></div>

Shore will be a wing and alternate with Spezza worst case. Babcock loves his vets and vets that can win faceoffs and Spezza had one of the highest FO Win % last year.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>on a 4, you're looking at hell freezing over. It's never happened in NHL history as far as I'm aware of, and definitely not in the salary cap era.

As for the rest, wait and see. on an 8 year deal I find it insane to think that he'll take 11.5. I also don't think he'll take an 8 year deal.</div></div>

I do agree 4 aint happening. I am betting on a 2 year for 6 or 3 at 7.25. That the way I think it works since then you have more money next year to sign Barrie, Dermott and maybe even Muzzin
Forum: Fauteuil - DGJul. 24, 2019 at 1:00 p.m.
Thread: Sign MARNER amp Trade Kapanen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snipshow4416</b></div><div>Bracco looks good offensively on the pp but is completely lost defensively and will get torn up at the higher level. Not worth bringing him up and ruining him now when he can excel and work on his game in the ahl. And sandin is basically the same. You have to learn from other teams and not bring up prospects to early like Edmonton does. And marner had 1 90 point season after the 2nd leading goal scorer in the last 5 years started centring him. A lot of people overlook how good jt is. He’ll only get a bridge and will probably be between 8-9.5</div></div>

I agree with everything you said, with Marner and JT. A bridge I also think is likely. But the $$ I disagree with

I compare it to what Kucherov took. 4.5Mil or something.. Marner needs a big pay cut compared to 8-9.5 on a bridge. Its like 6Mil over 2, 7.5 over 3 and non bridge 9mil over 6. All rough estimates
Forum: Fauteuil - DGJul. 24, 2019 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread: Sign MARNER amp Trade Kapanen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jakethesnake97</b></div><div>Bracco is ready to play in the NHL. Marner deserves at least as much as Tavares in my opinion.</div></div>

RFA vs UFA is a different story. Tavares holds more cards and is more valuable to get that. That being said a 11Mil over 8 is only a 1M overpay IMO. better than a lot of other 11/5s people keep throwing out.

Bracco got kinda shelled in his own end at 5v5 and was outshot a lot throughout the year and Scott Wheeler is not thinking he is ready yet and he watches more games than anyone... so i sort of trust him. But If we assume bRACCO IS READY, the 3rd line is Moore, Kerfoot, Kapanen, its better constructed than a Moore, Kerfoot, Bracco. Kerfoot is a passer and never shoots even when he should. Bracco is the same. Where as Kapanen is a shoot first even if the shot is stupid... so i would rather have a great passer, grinder and shooter than 2 passers and a grinder

I personally would rather Keep Kapanen. And Bracco has this mystery what-if potential. You could trade him now for more. Because once he plays in the NHL he is now a known quantity, and thats less exciting than the mystery box
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2019 at 11:34 a.m.
Thread: Toronto Mitch Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RocketHabs</b></div><div>Maybe, but if Aho's contract sets the market Marner is a mil above that so it starts at 9.5$. And given what an older Panarin got in Free agency for almost an identical season its not unrealistic to expect a 10 to 10.5 mil contract.</div></div>

Rocket, you are 100% correct and AHo did set the Market... That is why Mitch gets the same. Mitch is not better than Aho... At all. and here are facts as to why
1. Aho Plays Center vs Mitch's Wing - Centers are more valuable throughout the NHL
2. Aho Scores more goals than Mitch. Goals are more valuable than Assists. Its just a fact
3. Based on all stats and even the eye test Aho is better defensively than Marner at 5v5
4. Production - yes Mitch got slightly more, but Aho didnt have an elite winger like Marner had an elite center in JT. THier production is virtually the same. I can hear an arguement on how mItch could be better though but its slight

Aho, Montreal and Carolina all agree'd he is worht 8.5/5. Thats what Mitch needs to start at

6/2, 7.5ish/3, 8.5/5, 9/6, 9.5/7, 10/8

Also, Panarin is not a comparable. Panarin is a UFA. He got to be courted by all 31 teams if he wished. He got to choose who he wanted to go with.

Mitch is an RFA
-No Negotiation Rights
-No offersheets got offered or signed by him
-his only power is to hold out which the leafs have now planned for.


Also for fun, question, how many points would Mitch have gotten if instead of passing to JT he was passing to Hyman, Kadri, Kappy, Mango? I know my answer and it is less than 94. You need an elite finisher if you are marner. Every other person i listed would have had the puck bounce off shinpads, sticks, skates, not getting good shots off, or not being in that position in the first place... And now you are talking about a 74-82 point season.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2019 at 10:48 a.m.
Thread: trying
Marner, Mitchell 7 $10,200,000 - overpaid by about 1Mil AAV, but not the worst... so i give this grade a eh
Mikheyev, Ilya 4 $1,200,000 - crazy, we have not seen him play, and any depth player you sign 1.5Mil and under, 1-2 years tops... you can literally find them in the bargin bin every free agency
Marchment, Mason 4 $1,000,000 - crazy term yet again. 4 Mil for an unproven guy who is a depth piece at best. Bargain bin hunting if he plays over his worth
Gauthier, Frédérik 5 $1,000,000 - crazy even worse that Marchment. 4th line centers grow on tree's. We got Spezza for 700K for a year. Bargain hunt. Every 100K of savings matters from a cap Team
Dermott, Travis 5 $3,000,000 - Great COntract, I like it... keeps him locked up long term as he breaks out
Harpur, Ben 4 $1,000,000 - this guy is literally the worst. the exact opposite of what Dubas wants his Defence to be. Throw this $$$ and Term in the trash and send him to the marlies
Kivihalme, Teemu 4 $1,000,000 - WHO??? WHY the term FFS
Bracco, Jeremy 4 $1,000,000 - eh, he hasnt proven anything yet. And Again why the term. Trade him while he is a mystery box and worth more than if he tried in the NHL and failed.

Muzzin, Jake 6 $5,500,000 - Not bad signing. I would rather sign Barrie and we have Dermott and Sandin almost ready
van Riemsdyk, Trevor 6 $3,000,000 - big overpay for a 3rd pair. Also the term... jeeeeze, thats what screws teams over the most. Dubas needs flexibility and this is a big overpay.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2019 at 10:34 a.m.
Thread: Youre a wizard Dubie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>They didnt create cap space though. They had 5.25 that is now filled with Clarkson, but will be free again when he goes on LTIR. They just transfered free cap space into LTIR cap space but got a 4th out of it</div></div>

They did create some cap space because of voodoo. Before, they could not reach the limit of the cap to use Hortons LTIR Effectively enough as it stands now. They would not have gotten the full 5.3Mil or whatever as releif. But Now, with Clarkson and horton they are over the cap, if Marner signs before the season starts, you can actually use up the whole contracts of both. If he holds out, you can sign the Shores and Spezza's to more money and get your cap hit to 81.49999 and use Horton and Clarksons full contract and get cap relief that way. THis also helps if marner goes into the season unsigned which was an issue and a leverage on his side before...
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2019 at 10:29 a.m.
Thread: Do the Oilers and Rangers do this or even the Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>The Rangers trade is fine but the Edmonton trade isn't very good. Larsson isn't a good defenceman, he never has been. He's a middle pair right handed guy who doesn't have any offense and has below average possession numbers. This has been the book on Larsson for ever. He's comparable to Zaitsev and Ceci but gets a pass cause he was traded for Hall which is the worst trade of this decade by far.

Hard pass on the Edmonton trade. Keep Kap and if you want to move him, there are better trades I am sure.</div></div>

I agree with this guy. That edmonton trade is shocking. Is Larsson better than Ceci. Yes. But thats a low bar to climb. And Also he is not that much better which makes this trade even worse. Also Larsson is the exact opposite of what Dubas' D want to do. Mobile puck moving defencemen...

\and you want to give up a former 2nd round pick, a 3rd and Kappy who is much younger has 3 years left on his deal And will still be and RFA when he is done... Hard pass
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2019 at 6:41 p.m.
Thread: If they want Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I agree with much you said except your last paragraph. Dubas shouldn't be leaking anything to the press or use the trade threat. Just make the offers and it's up to Mitch to accept or not. But at some time, maybe its August but certainly September, if Marner isn't signed, the Leafs $$$ offers will be less that what was offered in August. Now you don't make it public, again Marner's decision.</div></div>

If all the rumors are true of Bad advice from Ferris and meddling from Paul Marner.. i would secretly leak stuff. "Toronto is in discussions with _____ team with marner. My sense is nothing is close but there have been talks". Then the next day report another team. Just let them know. Do your due diligence, and maybe if you find a home run trade do it, but you need to smack some common sense in him, and since physical violence is illegal, maybe some emotional termole to speed things along? Because right now Marner and his team are negotiating with fairy dust and magic and dubas needs them to negotiate in reality..
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2019 at 6:17 p.m.
Thread: If they want Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rileylmao</b></div><div>Marner isn't worth anywhere close to that lol</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JamesChristiano</b></div><div>Hes not signing for less</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mugsy961</b></div><div>That's what I say...it's gotta be 90M at 11 per.</div></div>

He is literally not worth 11/6. 9/6 sure. EVery comparable has him at 8.5/5, 9/6. Using facts and figures, not emotions and stupidity.

And " he isnt signing for less".. he has literally zero power

1. He has admitted he wants to be a leaf
2. He has not been offered any OFFER sheets. There were some Rumors had him turning down offersheets of fear the leafs wouldnt match(with columbus) but those were not confirmed.. and if they are true he loses even more power
3. No Arbitration rights
4. Literally 3-4 comparables that havehim 9.1ish/6 and go up and down AAV based on term.

When Dubas starts leaking fake trade rumors in August as he should, if marner truely wants to stay he will accept fair value, or sit or be traded. MArner also remembers what happened to nylander after he missed training camp. never recovered