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SlickWilly
Member Since
Nov. 7, 2017
Favourite Team
Chicago Blackhawks
Forum Posts
3229
Posts per Day
1.4
POSTS
THREADS
LIKES
ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Apr. 8 at 3:36 p.m.
Thread:
2024 top 15
If the Hawks come out of the first round with Demidov and Parascek i would be very pleased with that
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 6 at 6:14 p.m.
Thread:
Two years out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wadejos123</b></div><div>Luckily it will expire right around the time the salary cap might start to matter for the hawks</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>It's pretty unlikely that Jones contract becomes a serious problem at any point. It might be a little difficult to navigate in the final years, but nothing unmanageable. Most of these kids will never get anything close to $9.5M contracts, and the ones that do probably won't within the next 6 seasons, aside from Bedard.</div></div>
If the kids arent getting extensions to make the Jones contract at least a little bit of a problem in the next 7 years, then the rebuild was unsuccessful. All these first round picks, you'd hope the average on their first extensions after the ELC is around 5 million (Bedard and Demidov become stars and make upwards of 8-9 mil, Nazar/Korchinski/Moore/Rinzel all a bit lower). Throw in a upper tier free agent signing, in this scenario its Rantanen, if these guys arent forcing an issue to at least make some tough decisions, then we have an issue.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 6 at 1:21 p.m.
Thread:
Two years out
Jesus Christ that seth jones contract is gonna be awful in 4 years
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 4 at 4:53 p.m.
Thread:
Hawks Young Blood
I think Kantserov and Lardis both have a chance to stick top 6 at RW, and while Levshunov is a great choice at RD, i still think nobody else that we have in our system (other than Bedard) will be as dynamic as Demidov and we cant pass on him if we're sat at 2 overall
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 3 at 4:42 p.m.
Thread:
Need More Juice
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hawksguy81</b></div><div>Hawks might consider that. Klimovich checks several boxes that the Hawks are looking for. Although being coached by Colliton in the AHL is certainly a negative.</div></div>
I agree with that.
Also - we do like Dickinson, but wouldn't that be PAST considerations? :tearsofjoy
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 2 at 8:53 p.m.
Thread:
Hababrini
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Steve_321</b></div><div>Let me just say - I don’t agree</div></div>
7 points in 25 games and a guy coming off a torn pec surgery? Maybe if he redeems himself next season you can get that at the deadline. But no chance youre getting that this offseason
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 2 at 8:48 p.m.
Thread:
Hababrini
You're not going to get a 2nd for Dvorak no matter how much you retain on him
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 2 at 7:14 p.m.
Thread:
Draft day trades hopeful
The Ottawa, Anaheim, and Montreal trades are particularly bad. No chance those teams take those deals.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 2 at 4:57 p.m.
Thread:
Hawks Next Season
Rinzel and Moore probably arent going to sign
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 2 at 4:43 p.m.
Thread:
Trading for Martin Necas because TVA Sports said so
I doubt they would like to trade him, and unless you're willing to lose your 1st rounder, they probably match whatever offer you throw at him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 2 at 4:38 p.m.
Thread:
The power of cap space
why are we paying 3rd to dump AA?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 2 at 3:36 p.m.
Thread:
2024-2025 Season Start
If michigan wins the natty, I think Brindley signs and plays in the AHL. Dude skated circles around the NCAA this year, nothing left to prove in that league. Don't want to stagnate, and itll teach him to play against a different level of competition
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 2 at 2:39 p.m.
Thread:
unrealistic offszn
I'm confused on how you come up with that value for Romanov. The initial trade reads to me something along the lines of Matheson for a 1st, Kovacevic + Volokhin + 3rd for Romanov, but then you flip Romanov for a 1st. Volokhin is an interesting prospect, but if your valuation of him + Kovacevic is equal to a 1st, i dont think other teams are taking that trade
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26 at 1:23 p.m.
Thread:
A Little Bit of This and a Little Bit of That
I wouldnt waste a contract slot on Gorman or Kelley. Maybe they get ATOs somewhere. But not NHL contracts
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26 at 12:03 p.m.
Thread:
Who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>The Hawks say no… doesn’t matter if the pick is first or second overall.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Whether that pick is 1st overall or not, CHI declines.</div></div>
I think at 2 the Hawks should take this. The way slaf is trending right now... that's likely the ceiling for Lindstrom if everything pans out well. Demidov is a different type of player but you have to be a little concerned with his disinterest in playing the defensive zone. If you want to take a Levshunov at 2, then I'd understand. Slafkovsky would be the absolute perfect complement to Bedard on the wing. I just think with the selection of guys you're drafting here at 2-4, if they turn out the way Slaf looks to be trending, thats a win
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26 at 10:53 a.m.
Thread:
Who says no
If pick is 1st OA, Hawks say no. If pick is not 1st OA, Habs say no
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 25 at 5:10 p.m.
Thread:
How much to move up 20 spots
I dont think Barron is enough to move up from the mid 20s to the mid teens, and I certainly dont think Harris + a late 2nd is enough to move up from the mid teens to the 5-6 range
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 25 at 5:09 p.m.
Thread:
Blackhawks- Sens Blockbuster Trade
The Hawks have so many unproven pieces, it would be very unwise to attempt to turn the corner on the rebuild. If Nazar and Moore dont live up to expectations like Reichel did, then you've just wasted all of Bedard's RFA contract clock
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 24 at 8:18 p.m.
Thread:
Moving up to 1st overall
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffGorton</b></div><div>Those pick value charts always take the average value of the pick. No context between how strong a draft is. Reality is, the difference between Celebrini and Parekh for example is much smaller than traditional difference between 1st overall and 5th. These charts also dont take into consideration the potential of a player during the draft discussions. They just take the data the how many NHL players come from this pick and create a value for it. In you draft in the top 10, you arent drafting for just a bog standard NHL player, you are drafting who you believe will be the best NHL player and for many teams, based on the positions of need. Those values arent taken into consideration when calculating a picks value.
An example of the pick chart not working is the Sharks making a trade with the Yotes in 2022. The trade was 27, 34,and 45 for 11. Sharks ended up getting essentially a late 2nd in extra value but got smoked in the trade because they couldve had Denton Mateychuk, Rutger McGroarty or Jonathan Lekkerimaki with that pick instead of the bums they drafted. The pick chart would say the Sharks won that trade. Everyone else says they lost it very badly.
This trade i proposed gives the sharks 4 things
a top 5 pick to draft a forward of slightly lesser value (Catton over Celebrini isnt that large of a gap) or a Dman like Parekh
a #4/#5 D man right now (Xhekaj has been on the 2nd pair for months now and is actually succeeding there with Savard)
A former 1st rounder with NHL experience in Barron
And a late 1st the next year
The Sharks have 1 future D man on their roster in Shakir Mukhamadullin. Theyll be garbage next year as well giving them another top 5 pick. (There is 1 Dman projected to go top 10 next year and the drop off for Dmen after Hensler is crazy).
Celebrini isnt a franchise changing player. Hes amazing but the gap in potential between him and Parekh is much smaller than then gap between a top 5 forward in 2025 and a Dman in 2025. Argubaly, there are 2 players just as good as him in Hagens and Martone. Add in Misa, Frondell, McQueen and Ryabkin, youve got 6 elite forwards</div></div>
I think people are underselling Celebrini because he wasnt sold as a franchise guy before the season began. His production in college this year rivals that of Fantilli's last year on a team that doesn't have anywhere near the talent that Michigan had last year, all while being 8 months younger. Is he a Bedard? No. But I think if Fantilli and him were in the same draft class, their draft stocks would be almost identical, with Fantilli probably having an edge due to size. But, I will agree that the top 2-5 is pretty close together at this point. In terms of overall value, I think the package is there. But, I'm always a believer in the saying that whoever gets the best player in the deal wins the trade, and the conditions around the Flames pick make it a little bit more of a risk than I would like to take if I was trading out of 1OA.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 24 at 4:27 p.m.
Thread:
If Hawks fall in draft lottery
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GuentzelvaniaUSA</b></div><div>Pittsburgh can retain and get way way more for that at the deadline.
They could jest get more for that from anyone.</div></div>
yeah now that guentzel is gone, and assuming he's not coming back and the Pens arent going to be big spenders in FA, they dont really need to shed cap space.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 24 at 4:25 p.m.
Thread:
Poll Is Kaapo worth a top 10 pick yes or no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stadel</b></div><div>for 2025 probably not worth it. But interestingly I think if you asked the question as "who is more likely to breakout or say hit 60 pts, Kakko or the guy available at 10th in 2024" that might be a harder answer than ppl realize.
The average 10th overall pick isnt actually all that good, and a lot of people have discussed how this years class might be worse than average. So his trade value probably doesnt warrant it simply because I think you could get more for 10th overall this year than Kakko, but incidentally I might bet on Kakko getting to top six quality more than the guy at 10.</div></div>
I'm not the biggest fan of the argument "the average 10th overall pick isnt actually that good" when calling draft slot value. If you wanna use it to say that the draft is a total crapshoot, then I'll agree with that. But you can constantly find guys of high value in the teens, just because whoever picks at 10 makes a mistake doesnt mean that the 10th overall pick isnt valuable.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 24 at 4:22 p.m.
Thread:
Moving up to 1st overall
I guess it really depends on what's gonna happen with that Calgary pick. My favorite pick value tool is puckpedia, and according to them, a fair trade up from 5 to 1 would be something like
SJ Sharks receive : 2024 5th overall, 2024 6th overall, 2024 58th overall
MTL receives : 2024 1st overall
If you think whoever holds the 6th overall pick would accept Barron, Xhekaj squared, and calgary's 2025 1st rounder for it, then its probably of fair value. I think the Sharks in this specific instance would probably prefer more quality over quantity, especially if youre trading the 1st overall pick
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 23 at 4:55 p.m.
Thread:
Canadiens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy316</b></div><div>He's Luke Richardson's guy
He unlocked his game and helped him transition to a Leadership Role.
After that Kovy became Consistent and his game reminds me a lot of Edmundson back in the 2016 STL right up until his 2021 SCF run with MTL
He's someone who could become more especially under Luke Richardson</div></div>
Ah, thanks for the context
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 23 at 4:40 p.m.
Thread:
Canadiens
That's a little random but the Hawks probably should take that
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 23 at 1:23 p.m.
Thread:
Two years out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>Not a McQueen fan? I'll need to take a closer look. I hear you on physicality in juniors translating to NHL ability. Some kids just grow up faster than others. I'm sure your not a Cayden Lindstrom fan then either?</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>I don't think this opinion is going to age well. But we shall see. I think if McQueen falls in the draft order, it will be because others rise, and not because of his own ability. He is going to be an exceptional top 6 power forward, imo.
Passing on Lindstrom is going going to be regretted by a lot of teams if he doesn't go in the top 5. haha
I disagree. I think there is a ton of potential outside of the top 10, and even into the 2nd round. Iginla, Misa, Chernyshov, Artamonov, Sennecke, Boisvert, Stiga, Brunicke, Badinka, Freij, Hutson, Masse, Basha, Parascak, Kiviharju, Jiricek, I could go on and on. There are so many guys with top of the lineup potential in there.
If we are comparing to last year, yeah, it's definitely "weaker." But last year was an abnormally deep draft, that we probably won't see again for a while. On average, this is a very good draft without any steep dropoffs, aside from after Celebrini and then another somewhere in the mid 2nd to early 3rd, probably. Though, I think the drop off after Celebrini has more to do with readiness than what it will look like with the benefit of hindsight in a few years.</div></div>
I am not as high on Lindstrom as others (would definitely prefer Demidov or Levshunov) but he's a different case than what I outlined. At this time last year, Lindstrom wasn't very noticed by many and definitely wasnt regarded as an elite prospect. February birthday, so not just better than others due to age and earlier development. His game isn't entirely built around his size, as he has good speed and good puck skills. McQueen's draft profile about his speed and puck skills come with the qualifiers *for his size* which never really excites me, and its built on the hope that it will continue to improve. Not to knock the kid or say that he's gonna bust or anything. There's a reason I don't work as a scout! Just trends i've noticed when scouting prospects a year out
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