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Wreckless

Wreckless
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Sep. 1, 2020
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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 19 at 4:07 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 19 at 2:51 p.m.
Thread: Elliotte Friedman says kings looking to add a goalie Maybe Allen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wreckless</b></div><div>I was curious which contract the kings fan base might would want to dump. Any insight there would be valuable. Which might be first on the chopping block is more value added than “not any $4M of their players”, as though $4mm is some kind of monolith.</div></div>

Arvidsson would be the best candidate, but the Kings need Arvidsson more than Allen particularly when you look at their powerplay last season with him and what they are now. Look at the Kings goaltending SV%, they aren't the problem. They are looking for someone for next season, but I think you would look at a young 1B like Lankinen, Ersson, Dostal. Plenty of goaltenders will be willing to take budget contracts next season to salvage their career: Murray, Samsanov, Raanta, etc. If the Kings are serious about contending in the playoffs, I can't see Allen as the answer when better goaltenders could be obtained at similar cap hits like: Ullmark, Hart, etc.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 19 at 2:17 p.m.
Thread: Elliotte Friedman says kings looking to add a goalie Maybe Allen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tryger</b></div><div>Allen is a career .908 vs. Talbot career .914 at a budget contract. Unless Allen is retained this contract doesnt work. Arvidsson is already on the ice which means when he's healthy the Kings have $4M they don't have money for.</div></div>

.908 is quite average these days. And, average goaltending is getting to be less common and attractive among contenders.

50% retention would cost a pretty penny. The retention alone is worth a 2nd with the extra term. Id be hard pressed to trade Allen @50% for anything less than a 2nd and a prospect when the prices at the TDL should balloon. That said they dont have to move him at all.

Moving him to the Devils for bad money in Vanecek and a pick to NJ can even be done as at least theyd wouldnt have to sacrifice cap space next season as opposed to the Kings whom simply get cap flexbility. You need to offer something better.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4 at 11:33 p.m.
Thread: Time for Jersey to move on from Vanacek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SociallyHawkward</b></div><div>History says the only goalies that return a 2nd round pick are elite but old goalies like fleury or elite but has a screw loose goalies like lehner. Allen is the type of goalie that gets a 4th unless a team is desperate, their gm is stupid (edmonton), and there's no other goalies on the market. Then he might return a 3rd.</div></div>

All the scuttlebutt right now is saying the goalie prices are high, history is meaningless in a bull market so if Hughes only wanted a 4th round pick, you'd think the trade would be done already. And, Allen isnt a UFA goalie he has term so the Fleury and Lehner comparisons dont fit. Jake has the same term as he was bought from St Louis and that cost a 3rd in a tighter/pandemic market.
Everything is pointing at the price tag being a 2nd plus because the market dictates the price as such is supply/demand.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4 at 7:01 p.m.
Thread: Time for Jersey to move on from Vanacek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Andy_Dick</b></div><div>The draft is pretty weak outside 2, 3 sure things, really. Most of the top 10 are defenceman with real warts that probably dont go top 20 in last year's draft. I see a lot of 1st rounds picks being offered with so few sellers this year (5 teams?) and a ton of teams in contention.

Picks outside the top20 are most years long shots to even be NHL regulars. Depending on which team offers said 1st round pick (hello Chychrun trade) 1sts have a big swing in value, accordingly.</div></div>

There is a point in the first round where you go from 75 percent probability to be a regular to about 35 percent after a certain pock. I still can’t believe Gabe Perrault dropped to 22.

Most late first rounders are AHL all star types. When you hit, it’s great, but CSB scouting reports past 20 to 25 are fascinating. I’ve watched a lot junior hockey and read Corey Pronmon’s reports and sometimes wonder if we are watching the same sport. I appreciate the thoroughness, but I think some GM’s are playing him for value manipulation
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4 at 6:40 p.m.
Thread: Time for Jersey to move on from Vanacek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>FYI. 2024 is supposed to be a lighter depth draft than the next two years.

Once you get past 50 in any draft, it’s a complete crap shoot. This isn’t football. I wouldn’t take 2 late third rounders for 1 late second rounder. A 3rd and a 4th doesn’t equal a second.

Granted, I believe late seconds are a tad overrated as assets too. The percentage hit rate for late second rounders is generally anemic

A good third rounder in the AHL who is performing is worth more than a late 2nd rounder to me as well. Lots of second round picks flame out in the ECHL</div></div>

The draft is pretty weak outside 2, 3 sure things, really. Most of the top 10 are defenceman with real warts that probably dont go top 20 in last year's draft. I see a lot of 1st rounds picks being offered with so few sellers this year (5 teams?) and a ton of teams in contention.

Picks outside the top20 are most years long shots to even be NHL regulars. Depending on which team offers said 1st round pick (hello Chychrun trade) 1sts have a big swing in value, accordingly.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4 at 6:35 p.m.
Thread: Time for Jersey to move on from Vanacek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wreckless</b></div><div>« Certainly » eh? Interesting. Colorado has possibly traded more with the Habs than any other team since moving from Quebec. Colorado doesn’t have any of the early cups without Roy. Arguably doesn’t win the cup last time without Lehkonen. Monahan is light years better than Drouin. Teams add depth at the deadline.
Relax man…maybe it happens, maybe it doesn’t.</div></div>

Not one Avs fans here called Lehkonen going there for more than a 3rd or didnt want him at all. So..there ya go. And they wanted nothing to do with Drouin at any cost. Jo signs with them in the offseason. Fans here act like they have any say at all in Sakic's thinking. Truly pathetic. They have zero clue about their team and constantly prove it ad nauseum.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4 at 1:58 p.m.
Thread: Time for Jersey to move on from Vanacek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wreckless</b></div><div>I don’t think it would cost too high a pick for Jersey to dump Vanacek, because he can be stashed in the AHL by a team with LTIR space, and you never know, he might find his game again in the off-season, and either way, he can probably be moved at the deadline next year as a rental retaining half his salary and fetch an additional pick.</div></div>

That’s 4.8m of dead money on your cap over two years if you bury him (daily rates would vary). There is a cost for that and I don’t believe it is a third.

We just saw good players in that salary range traded for well below market value in Beauvellier and Zadorov, because cap room is at a premium. No one is taking that two year contract.

I scoff when Boston fans say they can just trade Grz without retention. To whom? The teams that have cap space are facilitating deals. Taylor Hall was worth a lot more than Regula and Mitchell at the beginning of the year, but Chicago took advantage of cap dynamics (the irony of injury and Regula is actually killing it defensively in Providence)

Curious to see how it plays out, but San Jose and Chicago would seem to be good targets for a dump Vanadek/add a goalie for a late 2nd if you believe this half year is indicative of performance
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4 at 1:53 p.m.
Thread: Time for Jersey to move on from Vanacek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wreckless</b></div><div>A 2026 2nd is close to a 2024 3rd. Allen probably goes to whoever offers the best draft pick at the deadline. Time will tell what that ends up being. No point making too many assumptions now, probably depends on the injury situations of multiple teams at that point.</div></div>

FYI. 2024 is supposed to be a lighter depth draft than the next two years.

Once you get past 50 in any draft, it’s a complete crap shoot. This isn’t football. I wouldn’t take 2 late third rounders for 1 late second rounder. A 3rd and a 4th doesn’t equal a second.

Granted, I believe late seconds are a tad overrated as assets too. The percentage hit rate for late second rounders is generally anemic

A good third rounder in the AHL who is performing is worth more than a late 2nd rounder to me as well. Lots of second round picks flame out in the ECHL
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 27, 2023 at 8:36 p.m.
Thread: Since Winnipeg passes on Montreal PLD trade offers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Howie</b></div><div>I'd argue that with this new info some habs deals have gotten worse the more and more Dubois gets linked like sure but you run risk of overpaying him as a ufa and might be stolen away with the right team and cap (5% ain't nothing) so we'll happily take the rental price and watch as hab fans complain they didn't pony up for him</div></div>

An overpayment for PLD is nothing to worry about for Hughes. There's significant contracts coming off the cap for the next five years. Also the cap will significantly raise 2 to 3 years from now. Overpayment for a core piece for the next 8 years while you rotate in youth on other positions is of no concern for the habs and ghats how dynasties are built...ie Pens, Hawks, Bolts,