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brad_habs

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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 15, 2021 at 2:59 p.m.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGJul. 14, 2021 at 12:23 a.m.
Thread: Chariot
Detroit fans are absolutely insane on their pricing for cap space and if that's actually the kind of return that the Wings (and the half dozen other teams with cap space to spare) can get, there's just no reason to make that trade.

At the deadline I could see it, but Byron is still a useful player, just a couple million overpaid. Buying him out would bring the cap hit down substantially, but the best bet for the Habs would be to move Lehkonen instead and keep Byron for at least one more year.

Bergevin just isn't under enough of a cap crunch to need to overpay to those extremes.

For your signings $6M seems a bit high for a 20 goal scorer, so I'd guess $5.5M as the max there. I doubt KK gets much more than a 2x$2.5M deal. He's got a ton of potential, but hasn't put up the numbers yet. He'll want to bet on himself. Lehkonen would need to be bumped up to $2.2M to meet his QO.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2021 at 6:28 p.m.
Thread: Build Off This
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GoHabsGo99</b></div><div>RNH contract...he wont get more than him</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DiehardRedWingsFan58</b></div><div>Yeah and RNH just signed for 8 years @ $5,125,000 AAV so Danult will get similar on a shorter term deal then that.</div></div>

RNH isn't a good comparable for Danault since he primarily plays wing and plays an offensive role. The comparables to look at would be Lowery, Pageau and Eriksson Ek. Eriksson Ek is much better offensively, ranked higher in the Selke voting, is 4 years younger and signed for 8x$5.25M. Lowery, while a good 3C, is well below Danaut's ability and didn't see a single Selke vote: he signed for 5x$3.25M. Pageau is the closest to Danault in ability, not quite as good defensively or as a playmaker, but better at scoring (which always pays more), and he signed for 6x$5M pre-flat-cap.

Danault's playoff performance definitely raised his stock, but I would think he'll still get a contract in the $25-30M range. Term will be the big question and he might be able to get a bit more money taking a longer term and simply because he's a Quebecer, which is a big deal in this market. 8x$3.75M would be a $30M deal, so I could see him getting 8x$4M, but I think the Habs will probably look for something closer to 6x$4.25M ($25.5M).
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2021 at 4:03 p.m.
Thread: next season
I can't see either Montreal or Tampa agreeing to that trade. Gourde and Palat might well get moved to free up cap space, but they're not going to want to take Byron's cap hit back in the deal and probably not Lehkonen's either. For the Habs, KK is basically an untouchable. He was their 3rd overall pick and just turned 21 a couple of days ago. He's got at least a couple more seasons to show he can reach the 1C potential that drafted him for.

I don't think the value of Drouin for Risto is bad, but there's just so much we don't know about Drouin's situation right now and it's driven his trade value into the ground. I think it's unlikely that Drouin is moved in the off season and will at least start the season with the Habs, if he plays at all. If they did decide to trade him, giving up a top-6 winger that's consistently gotten around 50 points on a team that hasn't been that good, to get a 3rd pairing RD that they can't afford to resign at the end of the year is a really tough trade to sell, in my opinion. I think the Habs will more likely look for a cheaper option or just give prospects like Fleury, Brook and Norlinder a chance.

For nit-picks: It sounds like Bernier wants to stay in Detroit and will likely sign after the expansion draft. Armia isn't likely to take a million dollar pay cut after the season/playoffs he's had, so I expect he'll be looking for something around a $9-10M deal. The Habs probably can't afford to give Danault a $40M deal and will likely try for something closer to $30M, like an 8x$3.75M or 6x$5M (though he reportedly turned that down in the offseason).
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2021 at 3:07 p.m.
Thread: trying2
I think the Habs will likely have to offer Danault and Armia term to reduce the AAV cap hit if they bring them both back. For Danault, I think they'll try for something around 8x$3.75M ($30M) and for Armia I would guess something around 4x$2.75M (though I think they'll let him walk). Of course their agents will have other ideas...

I like Coleman but I think they'd need to try to keep him around $3.5M; I'd use Kerfoot and Heinen as comparables, though he's slightly better than both (also older). I would ideally like to see them get a bit better goal scorer (Hall or Saad-esk player) and find a way to fit them under the cap, or trade for someone with scoring ability but closer in age to the young core.

Some potential deals I think could be gotten reasonably cheap are Copp (if Winnipeg continues to have problems signing him), Foegele or Wood. Copp would likely be the most expensive to acquire, but put up similar numbers to Hoffman this season and is younger and comes with less baggage. Foegele is a 3rd line player who might have the potential to break out if given a bigger role, but it would be a fairly cheap gamble to make. Wood is another guy who played on the 3rd line and shows signs he could player higher in the lineup, but Carolina fans love him and price him insanely high; if the GM doesn't rate him as highly or at least less than their need for defense help, he could be another cheap (AAV) gamble, if a bit expensive to acquire.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2021 at 11:56 a.m.
Thread: Habs
That Danault contract is the same as the one Eriksson Ek signed, and he's 4 years younger and scored 19 goals in 56 games. I don't think the Habs can give Danault anything near that. Danault's comparables are going to be Lowery and Pageau, probably leaning closer to Pageau. It was reported that he turned down the same contract as Pageau before the season, but I think the Habs need to push for the same $30M deal and maybe spread it over a longer term to keep the AAV down; if they went as long as 8 years (taking Danault to 36 years old), then 8x$3.75M. A 6 year term would be better, but they'd need him to take a pay cut. Pageau signed his deal before the flat cap.

Unless Suzuki has a crazy year, I think they'd either sign him to a bridge deal around 3x$6M (comparable to Point or Barzal) or, preferably, a long term deal similar to Eriksson Ek around 8x$5.5M. I can definitely see his agent pushing for the bridge deal though.

For KK, I'd look to Sam Bennett as a comparable. KK hasn't shown nearly as much scoring ability as Bennett did early in his career but has a better all-round game. Bennett's first RFA deal was 2x$1.95M so I think the Habs could sign KK to a similar deal. I can't see anyway that KK and his agent agree to a long term deal while his stock is this low and he's likely to break out in the next couple of seasons.

For the trades, in my opinion Butcher would be a significant step down from Chiarot and a higher cap hit, so I'd rather just keep Chiarot. Meier's value is tricky because he's an outstanding player, but his contract is structured so that his qualifying offer in 2 seasons will be $10M. It's unlikely that Meier will be worth that much unless he elevates his play significantly before then, so I think I would remove the 1st from that trade since he'd be a rental+1. I also don't think there's any way that Anderson is moved next season unless Bergevin steps down as GM and his replacement makes the deal.

Byron's contract is a pain with the flat cap, but I think the Habs will likely hang on to him for at least one more year. He's still a valuable depth player (if ~$2M over paid) and his contract will be significantly cheaper to move/buyout in the last year.

Rather than McCabe, I think the Habs will look for some RD depth instead (assuming they don't think Fleury or Brook are ready to step in). Ducharme has already said he doesn't want to put Romanov on the right side and Kulak is a solid depth D who can slot into the top-4 short term without a problem. They also have Norlinder, Guhle and likely Harris that will be pushing for a roster spot as early as this coming season in Norlinder's case.