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Fair Jones Trade

Created by: Leafs4life34
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 10, 2020
Published: Nov. 11, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
TOR
  1. Jones, Seth ($875,000 retained)
  2. Nash, Riley ($1,375,000 retained)
Retained Salary Transactions
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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2022
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$81,500,000$81,474,741$0$0$25,259
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,645,000$1,645,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$900,000$900,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,375,000$1,375,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$4,525,000$4,525,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$874,125$874,125
LD/RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1

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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:28 a.m.
#26
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Quoting: Random2152
You are correct in that he was hard matched to the top lines. He got caved in. The Leafs as a whole shot 2% that series, that doesn't mean he wasn't bad and gave up a ton to us. The other pairs with Murray, Gavrikov, etc allowed virtually nothing while almost every good chance the Leafs got was with Jones on the ice. He is quite bad defensively.
Now that doesn't mean you cannot be a good dman, so looking at his offensive plays really explains why people think he is better then he is. So often he will make some crazy play and rush the puck out, which is really obvious to a basic eye test and looks fantastic. The key to seeing the issue is to notice what happens after, and the vast majority of the time he takes those insane plays and turns them into nothing. Feel free to go back and watch tape. Focus on what happens to the puck after Jones breaks it out. You'll often see it go harmlessly into the corner or end up with the Leafs breaking back out with numbers.

Tl;dr
He looks really flashy, but it doesn't lead to much


We must be watching 2 completely different players. Jones is one of the most well-rounded players in the league. Hedman-Lite
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:29 a.m.
#27
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: theBeer_Leaguer
Watching that Toronto vs Columbus series I had the exact opposite impression. He does little things defensively that are tough to notice, but are what make him so tough to play against. Really smart, played against the Leafs top players, and just seems so calm and composed on the backend, and never makes defensive errors.


I honestly don't know how you could come to that conclusion. Jones was caved in on the ice. Here is this just so you're caught up on what I've been saying. While the Leafs failed to convert in the series, pretty much every chance given up was with Jones on, and he doesn't do a good job of creating. If you'd like I can show you the Analytics, although if you have time and prefer the eye test, re-watch the series and REALLY focus in on Jones. I mean watch nothing else. So often he allows the Leafs to run roughshod over them, and then does nothing in the offensive end after a spectacular play.

Quoting: Random2152
You are correct in that he was hard matched to the top lines. He got caved in. The Leafs as a whole shot 2% that series, that doesn't mean he wasn't bad and gave up a ton to us. The other pairs with Murray, Gavrikov, etc allowed virtually nothing while almost every good chance the Leafs got was with Jones on the ice. He is quite bad defensively.
Now that doesn't mean you cannot be a good dman, so looking at his offensive plays really explains why people think he is better then he is. So often he will make some crazy play and rush the puck out, which is really obvious to a basic eye test and looks fantastic. The key to seeing the issue is to notice what happens after, and the vast majority of the time he takes those insane plays and turns them into nothing. Feel free to go back and watch tape. Focus on what happens to the puck after Jones breaks it out. You'll often see it go harmlessly into the corner or end up with the Leafs breaking back out with numbers.

Tl;dr
He looks really flashy, but it doesn't lead to much
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:29 a.m.
#28
Hockee
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Quoting: chloewoj
post the stats i’m so curious to see what backs up this crazy claim


xOFF GAR (offense)
Jones -0.3
Holl 0.4

xDEF GAR (defense)
Jones 1.2
Holl 2.1

xWAR (expected wins above replacement)
Jones 0.2
Holl 0.1

WAR (wins above replacement)
Jones 0.8
Holl 0.5

RAPM xGF +/- (two-way)
Jones -0.104
Holl 0.134

TOI vs Elite Competition
Jones 31.3%
Holl 35.9%

Holl also beats Jones in RAPM xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60 and CA/60 while their GF/60 is pretty much tied
Jones is better on the PP (but Holl has barely played PP minutes, so take that with a grain of salt)
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:29 a.m.
#29
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Yup and Advanced Stats never tell the whole story. Eye test says Jones is a top 10 defense in the league


Everyone in the hockey world knows how good he is. He’s a legit #1D
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:30 a.m.
#30
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Crazy how if you only look for the flaws in someones game they stand out. Jones is not perfect but he is also one of the least sheltered defenseman in the league. I guess it's jsut a fluke that the 34M line got shut out when matched up the entire game against the AHL caliber defensman Seth Jones


I never said he was AHL calibre. Hes definitely an NHL defenseman. he just isnt a superstar
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:31 a.m.
#31
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
We must be watching 2 completely different players. Jones is one of the most well-rounded players in the league. Hedman-Lite


I don't know what to tell you other than the fact that you're missing stuff with your eye test. This is specifically what analytics were created to help alleviate but as you don't trust them I'd heavily suggest re-watching that series closely.
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:32 a.m.
#32
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Quoting: mhockey91
I have him muted. As soon as I saw you mention him I know the comment is gonna be no good lol


Nah I find it amusing because he tries to argue like he knows the game better because he uses strictly advanced stats and thinks that no one else does. I am an avid user of advanced stats myself and probably know them just as well or better than him, yet I know where they have their limits. It's crazy how the NHL just ranked him 5th in the league last week and even THG ranked him 6th yet this guy still tries to say he's an AHLer
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:34 a.m.
#33
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Quoting: deys3232
I never said he was AHL calibre. Hes definitely an NHL defenseman. he just isnt a superstar


But Holl is barely NHL caliber so if Holl is better how can Jones be NHL caliber?
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:34 a.m.
#34
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Yup and Advanced Stats never tell the whole story. Eye test says Jones is a top 10 defense in the league


Thats why I told you what my eye test told me about Jones. The eye test is different for every person. A person could "hypothetically" see Jack Johnson make a clutch block, and they would think hes a great defenseman. Obviously this isnt true, he sucks. But its subjective. You and I watch hockey very differently

Quoting: deys3232
Yes I have, Ive watch a ton of Jones heres what I learned from analysing ONLY Jones and completely ignoring everything else on the ice

-He allows everyone to enter the zone
-He is big and hits in corners
-He does not break up passes/allows everyone to make plays
-He is always scrambling in the D-Zone and happens to get a ton of blocks because he is always scrambling
-He has a great skater who is good in transition/bringing the puck up the ice
-He lets Werenski create offense. Hes very passive offensively, occasionally using his big shot to take a slapper set up by a team mate
-Chills at the blueline and looks like he is doing something
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:35 a.m.
#35
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
But Holl is barely NHL caliber so if Holl is better how can Jones be NHL caliber?


Holl is a decent NHL defenseman as well...
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:35 a.m.
#36
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Nah I find it amusing because he tries to argue like he knows the game better because he uses strictly advanced stats and thinks that no one else does. I am an avid user of advanced stats myself and probably know them just as well or better than him, yet I know where they have their limits. It's crazy how the NHL just ranked him 5th in the league last week and even THG ranked him 6th yet this guy still tries to say he's an AHLer


dont tell me you just used a THG ranking... I respect what he does for the community, but his opinions and analysis are just awful
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:39 a.m.
#37
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Quoting: Random2152
I don't know what to tell you other than the fact that you're missing stuff with your eye test. This is specifically what analytics were created to help alleviate but as you don't trust them I'd heavily suggest re-watching that series closely.


I don't trust analytics? Besides the moron who started this whole argument i'm probably one of the biggest users of advanced stats on this site. I am fully aware of how mediocre Jones RAPM is, I am fully aware of how average is GAR is. Hell, Ryan Ellis had the 2nd best GAR in the league and got zero Norris votes yet Jones tied for 11th in voting
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:41 a.m.
#38
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Quoting: deys3232
Holl is a decent NHL defenseman as well...


You are obsessed with analytics no? Holls numbers away from Muzzin we abysmal
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:42 a.m.
#39
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I don't trust analytics? Besides the moron who started this whole argument i'm probably one of the biggest users of advanced stats on this site. I am fully aware of how mediocre Jones RAPM is, I am fully aware of how average is GAR is. Hell, Ryan Ellis had the 2nd best GAR in the league and got zero Norris votes yet Jones tied for 11th in voting


So when I tell you he was caved in and contributed nothing and only looks good by a simple eye test due to the fact that he does 'nothing' in a flashy way you'd agree?
You're right that you should never 100% rely on analytics as your only info source, but the eye test isn't better than it and it shouldn't overwrite what analytics say, especially when it is this clear.
Which is funny that I say that, because a good eye test will confirm what the numbers say. He looks great doing nothing
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:43 a.m.
#40
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I don't trust analytics? Besides the moron who started this whole argument i'm probably one of the biggest users of advanced stats on this site. I am fully aware of how mediocre Jones RAPM is, I am fully aware of how average is GAR is. Hell, Ryan Ellis had the 2nd best GAR in the league and got zero Norris votes yet Jones tied for 11th in voting


You know who else got Norris votes? Esa Lindell and Zdeno Chara

So yeah, keep using Norris votes to determine who is better
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:43 a.m.
#41
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
You are obsessed with analytics no? Holls numbers away from Muzzin we abysmal


Thats why I use isolates stats...
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:44 a.m.
#42
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Quoting: deys3232
dont tell me you just used a THG ranking... I respect what he does for the community, but his opinions and analysis are just awful


This is the most ironic thing coming from you. He is well respected for his knowledge on the game, just because his view on analytics are the exact opposite of yours does not make his opinions bad.

I also said the NHL ranked Jones 5th. Yes the leagues analytics ranked him 5th, you know people who actually have a career in this industry.
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:46 a.m.
#43
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
This is the most ironic thing coming from you. He is well respected for his knowledge on the game, just because his view on analytics are the exact opposite of yours does not make his opinions bad.

I also said the NHL ranked Jones 5th. Yes the leagues analytics ranked him 5th, you know people who actually have a career in this industry.


Do you mind searching up what the appeal to authority fallacy is?
Talk to me after you understand it
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:46 a.m.
#44
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
This is the most ironic thing coming from you. He is well respected for his knowledge on the game, just because his view on analytics are the exact opposite of yours does not make his opinions bad.

I also said the NHL ranked Jones 5th. Yes the leagues analytics ranked him 5th, you know people who actually have a career in this industry.


Alright bud, I'd calm down on using league rankings. They are notoriously bad to a hilarious degree. (John Gibson being the 9th or 10th ranked goalie in the year he should have won the vezina being the shining example).
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:46 a.m.
#45
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Quoting: Random2152
So when I tell you he was caved in and contributed nothing and only looks good by a simple eye test due to the fact that he does 'nothing' in a flashy way you'd agree?
You're right that you should never 100% rely on analytics as your only info source, but the eye test isn't better than it and it shouldn't overwrite what analytics say, especially when it is this clear.
Which is funny that I say that, because a good eye test will confirm what the numbers say. He looks great doing nothing


No the numbers say Ellis is the best defenseman in the the league. Obviously that is not true. I've watched a lot of Jones games and my conclusion of him is completely different from yours. That is fine, you are allowed to have your own opinion but dont force your opinions down other peoples throats
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:51 a.m.
#46
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Quoting: deys3232
Do you mind searching up what the appeal to authority fallacy is?
Talk to me after you understand it


That's not even related. The NHL doesn't gain anything out of naming Jones the 5th best defenseman in the league. Furthermore I also told you my opinion own opinion on him which is not at all related to what the pros say. Have you by chance read in to why the league considers him a top 5 defenseman? Have you read other peoples views or even tried to widen your perspective?
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Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:52 a.m.
#47
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
No the numbers say Ellis is the best defenseman in the the league. Obviously that is not true. I've watched a lot of Jones games and my conclusion of him is completely different from yours. That is fine, you are allowed to have your own opinion but dont force your opinions down other peoples throats


Nobody is saying Ellis is the best defenseman. he just happens to lead in A stat. If you look around the league you will find that many players lead in many different stats. Auston Matthews was 1st in the NHL in xWAR this year. Does that make him the best player in the league? no. You need to use a combination of stats and the eye test in order to make an accurate claim
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:55 a.m.
#48
Hockee
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
That's not even related. The NHL doesn't gain anything out of naming Jones the 5th best defenseman in the league. Furthermore I also told you my opinion own opinion on him which is not at all related to what the pros say. Have you by chance read in to why the league considers him a top 5 defenseman? Have you read other peoples views or even tried to widen your perspective?


yeah ok, im done here. you clearly wont change your opinion, I wont change mine. This argument is going nowhere
Nov. 11, 2020 at 12:56 a.m.
#49
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
No the numbers say Ellis is the best defenseman in the the league. Obviously that is not true. I've watched a lot of Jones games and my conclusion of him is completely different from yours. That is fine, you are allowed to have your own opinion but dont force your opinions down other peoples throats


That isn't what the numbers say. Ellis is an underrated Dman and is either the best 2nd pair Dman in the league, or on most teams a high end top pair D. If you're contesting that there is no point to this conversation because you are factually and provably wrong.

That is fine to have your own opinion. That doesn't mean you're right tho, and you are the ones mocking the provably correct opinion here. I'm sorry that your eye test isn't a good as you think it is. I am serious. If you want to see what we are seeing go back and watch the games VERY closely. Anything he does never amounts to anything and he gives up the farm far too often. Or for a quicker method:
EVK4QcEUEAcexvy?format=jpg&name=small

I mean hey, I'll give you that he had a very good 17-18. Issue is that he is riding his rep from that even though he hasn't been at that level in awhile. I'll even add that I've been downplaying his defensive ability a bit by omitting the fact that it was Werenski-Jones that gave up a ton, not just Jones (although that doesn't really make it much better imo).
Nov. 11, 2020 at 1:15 a.m.
#50
Jah1722
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Quoting: Random2152
You are correct in that he was hard matched to the top lines. He got caved in. The Leafs as a whole shot 2% that series, that doesn't mean he wasn't bad and gave up a ton to us. The other pairs with Murray, Gavrikov, etc allowed virtually nothing while almost every good chance the Leafs got was with Jones on the ice. He is quite bad defensively.
Now that doesn't mean you cannot be a good dman, so looking at his offensive plays really explains why people think he is better then he is. So often he will make some crazy play and rush the puck out, which is really obvious to a basic eye test and looks fantastic. The key to seeing the issue is to notice what happens after, and the vast majority of the time he takes those insane plays and turns them into nothing. Feel free to go back and watch tape. Focus on what happens to the puck after Jones breaks it out. You'll often see it go harmlessly into the corner or end up with the Leafs breaking back out with numbers.

Tl;dr
He looks really flashy, but it doesn't lead to much


While I agree that Jones and werenski are a little overrated as a pair, I thought it was Savard and Gavrikov that gave up everything? Or was that the TB series?
 
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