I think if he signs for any longer than 5 years he's really screwing himself out of some serious money.

Probably like that. If hes getting 7 or 8 it should be 9+

Anaheim declines very easily

For that money I'd say no more than 5 years.

Not if he signs for 9.5 x 6 - that’s a fair contract.

No its not. He hasnt even hit 25 goals yet

your 2 best comparables are either:

1) Brayden Point - 3 years x $6.75M per season

2) Mitch Marner - 6 years x $10.893M per season


what you have paid him (6 years x $8.5M per season) significantly undervalues his future worth.

Sebastian Aho - 8.454 x 5
Mikko rantanen - 9.25 x 6

And Barzal is not quite in the same tier as either player

What makes you say that

If I’m Barzal, I’m asking for Marner money

I’ve been using $8.25 MM x 6 in my ACGMs, but in hindsight that’s probably not enough for 6 years. Realistically it’s probably gonna be around $7.5 MM for 2-3 years, which is still insane imo when you look at what Point, Laine, Tkachuk and DeBrincat took but whatever it takes at this point

He will either go for a bridge deal and gamble on big money later so

7mill x 3 years

or he will go big now

9-10mill for 8 years

Barzal: 0.88PPG during his ELC


Aho: 0.81PPG during his ELC
Rantanen: 0.87PPG during ELC


Point: 0.86PPG during ELC
Marner: 0.92PPG during ELC


... all are decent comparables but throw out the Aho one. It was signed via offersheet and was seen as an underpayment from the start as a tactic by Aho's agent because Carolina consistently low balled him. Toss out Rantanen because he's a winger and it's just easier to compare players of same position. Marner is a better comparison than Rantanen due to play style. Both are playmakers that drive their lines and they make their linemates better consistently. Much more likely Barzal's camp uses him as a comparable than Rantanen due to similar play style and higher pay, the player will obviously want the most money they can get. But likely to toss this comparable out as Marner is a winger as well. So now where do we end up? Right back at Brayden Point. The best and likeliest comparable. Both are centres. Both are playmakers that drive their lines and make their linemates better. & both team were in a similar spot when they needed contracts. Add in the fact that the pandemic has cost owners a significant amount of money and the cap has remained the same, and this is the best option for both sides.

Conclusion:
Barzal signs a bridge deal similar to Point's likely around 3 years x $7M AAV. Then signs a larger deal when his deal is up again. Works for the player to get a lump sum of cash now and cash in bigger when he can. Works for the team to save money now during tough times and RFA years and keep control of him longer before he bolts outta town like Tavares did.