2021 An interesting salary comp for Danault is Lars Eller

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Wreckless

Team: 2021-22 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Nov. 27, 2020

Published: Nov. 27, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Remember when the knock on Lars Eller was that he didn't score enough? Plays great defense, but he often leaves you wanting more?
Lars has 18, 16, 16, and 15 goal seasons under his belt, two of those with Montreal. Also playing in a more defensive role than the team's other top centres. Danault has never scored more than 13. 1 goal in 16 playoff games. Don't get me wrong, I love Philip Danault, but I think the media hype surrounding what kind of contract he can expect is completely out to lunch.

Lars Eller has never had a cap hit higher than $3.5mm. He got a 2 year bridge coming out of ELC at 1.1mm, then a 4 year deal at a $3.5mm followed by another 5 year deal at the same $3.5mm cap hit.

Danault signed a 2 year bridge coming out of ELC at $913k.
Then a 3 year deal at $3.083mm. Why exactly has he earned a $5mm or $6mm cap hit for a player in his role who scores less than players like Eller, Pageau, and Bonino?
And this is after covid, with a flat cap, and still a surplus supply of decent forwards without contracts willing to sign for dirt cheap? Tyler Toffoli's deal might be the high end of what Danault can expect to make in this market. Or maybe he prefers to take a short term deal, and bet on himself instead? I'd be fine either way.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Caufield, Cole		3	$925,000
Norlinder, Mattias		3	$894,167

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Lehkonen, Artturi	2	$2,500,000
Kotkaniemi, Jesperi	2	$2,500,000
Poehling, Ryan	2	$750,000
Vejdemo, Lukas	2	$750,000
Olofsson, Gustav	2	$750,000
Juulsen, Noah	2	$750,000
Mete, Victor	2	$750,000
Fleury, Cale	2	$750,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Danault, Phillip		6	$3,500,000
Armia, Joel		4	$2,600,000

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $1,958,333

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$69,458,454	$597,561	$1,175,000	$12,041,546

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Drouin, Jonathan $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 2	Suzuki, Nick $863,333$863,333 ($537,500$538K) C UFA - 1	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 6
Lehkonen, Artturi $2,500,000$2,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Danault, Phillip $3,500,000$3,500,000 C UFA - 6	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 6
Toffoli, Tyler $2,125,000$2,125,000 RW, LW UFA - 3	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi $2,500,000$2,500,000 C UFA - 1	Armia, Joel $2,600,000$2,600,000 RW, LW UFA - 4
Byron, Paul $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Evans, Jake $750,000$750,000 C UFA - 1	Caufield, Cole $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 2
	Poehling, Ryan $750,000$750,000 C, LW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Romanov, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($637,500$638K) LD RFA - 1	Weber, Shea $7,857,143$7,857,143 RD UFA - 5	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 5
Norlinder, Mattias $894,167$894,167 LD RFA - 3	Petry, Jeff $2,343,750$2,343,750 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4	Allen, Jake $2,875,000$2,875,000 G UFA - 2
Chiarot, Ben $1,750,000$1,750,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Edmundson, Joel $875,000$875,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 3
Mete, Victor $750,000$750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Juulsen, Noah $750,000$750,000 RD UFA - 1

Nov. 27, 2020 at 9:50 a.m.

RoyBoy

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 1,710

Likes: 414

Eller didn’t put up 40-50 points with MTL WHILE being a top 10 selke player in the league. Danault will make way more.

yikes, jpsnow13, bhavikp27 and 1 other person liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 9:54 a.m.

habsfan00

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 3,404

Likes: 632

probibaly about 5 million but i see your point

Nov. 27, 2020 at 9:54 a.m.

yikes

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,104

Likes: 12,841

I see both sides - danault’s contract comes down to this year (whether he’s with MTL or not). Obviously he put up good points and earned selke vote due to his good play but your point isn’t bad - although I’d rather danault than ellers easily.

If he repeats his last year play he’ll probably deserve 4.5-6 depending on playoffs and other variables

Nov. 27, 2020 at 9:54 a.m.

Wreckless

Thread Starter

Wreckless

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,391

Likes: 441

Edited Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:00 a.m.

Quoting: RoyBoy

Eller didn’t put up 40-50 points with MTL WHILE being a top 10 selke player in the league. Danault will make way more.

You're right, he didn't. He wasn't given the opportunity here to play with Gallagher (and a player of Tatar's quality) for two years straight. He wasn't even allowed to play at centre for the bulk of the time, even though he was clearly better there.
The Washington Capitals don't exactly scream "Selke" when you think of them. But the overall quality of the player, and the role they're both able to occupy, they're similar.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 9:55 a.m.

pharrow

Banned

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 19,215

Likes: 4,837

yeah I'm not sure how they came to this conclusion. Eller is on the 3rd year of a deal. Which he signed at the time was basically career highs for him at 38 points and 18 goals.
Now I would say Eller got paid on potential there and frankly has not lived up to it. 3.5 is a lot of money for a guy who is not a 20 goal scorer. but whatever.
Phillip is going to get more than Ellar, even in the covid world. He's basically a back to back 50 point player right now, then you got this year, if he reaches 50 points again, you are at 3 years 50 points.
So I think this year will be the make or break on that contract. If his numbers drop so will his cap hit. Due to the what have you done for me lately effect. But in general these two are not comparables.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:02 a.m.

Wreckless

Thread Starter

Wreckless

Joined: Sep. 2020

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Quoting: RoyBoy

Eller didn’t put up 40-50 points with MTL WHILE being a top 10 selke player in the league. Danault will make way more.

If you're taking "the over" on a $5mm cap hit for Danault's extension, I think you're going to be on the losing side of the bet. Nick Bonino would be a decent comp in the UFA market next off-season, and I'm guessing he'll be at $4.25mm MAX.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:05 a.m.

Wreckless

Thread Starter

Wreckless

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,391

Likes: 441

Quoting: pharrow

I agree that Danault will almost certainly get more than Eller, but is he really worth a cap hit that's $2mm more? Is $4.167mm ($25mm over 6 years) really not enough?

Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:16 a.m.

pharrow

Banned

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 19,215

Likes: 4,837

Quoting: Wreckless

I agree that Danault will almost certainly get more than Eller, but is he really worth a cap hit that's $2mm more? Is $4.167mm ($25mm over 6 years) really not enough?

I mean I'm not going to sit here and say I would hand him 5 mil per, because there is no way I would. I don't think anyone who hasn't even cracked 15 goals is worth all that.
But this league is obsessed with points being the marker of a player. I don't agree with that, but that is what it is. If I'm the player, why do I sign for less?
This is one of those the GM has to be smart enough to let a player walk and let someone else make that mistake move. And if the market can't figure it out, than let someone else get stuck with that.
You know, like the rangers signing Jack Johnson because they are too stupid to realize how awful of a defense man he really is.
But if I'm Danault, I'm not going to the table and using Eller as my marker in a league that gave 20 goal scoring Marner 11 million per.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:16 a.m.

Nhl_oilers

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 7,990

Likes: 4,211

Quoting: RoyBoy

Eller didn’t put up 40-50 points with MTL WHILE being a top 10 selke player in the league. Danault will make way more.

Quoting: habsfan00

probibaly about 5 million but i see your point

Agreed, he will probably get around a Pageau deal.

jpsnow13 and Fox_Czar_Cup liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:38 a.m.

#10

Wreckless

Thread Starter

Wreckless

Joined: Sep. 2020

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Quoting: pharrow

I agree, Danault's camp uses Pageau as a comp. Habs use Eller.
And the teams split the different at $4.25mm.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:44 a.m.

#11

SevenLeg

Hop on the Slaftrain

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 16,188

Likes: 20,503

Meh. Eller is more in the Bonino tier, and Danault is more in the Nelson-Hayes tier

jpsnow13, ForsbergForVezina and Lenny7 liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:50 a.m.

#12

ForsbergForVezina

CHI NYI

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 4,663

Likes: 2,253

Danault is considerably better than Eller imo. Going strictly off points (which is a bad way to judge a player like Danault I think), Eller hasn't cracked 50 once, while Danault has and would've done it again this year if not for Covid. Looking at the analytics, he's drives offense at an elite level too, especially last year. And defensively, there's really no comparison. Eller is a 3C at best imo and Danault is an incredibly high end 2C. I'd say he's worth at least $5 million for 6 or 7 years

SevenLeg, jpsnow13 and bhavikp27 liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 10:59 a.m.

#13

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

Likes: 11,051

Quoting: SevenLeg

Meh. Eller is more in the Bonino tier, and Danault is more in the Nelson-Hayes tier

I'd say right in the middle, to be honest. IMO, there's no way he makes less than Pageau.

Fox_Czar_Cup liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 11:00 a.m.

#14

jpsnow13

You know nothing JS

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 7,060

Likes: 4,446

So you take ONE stat (Goals) and compare him to ONE player (Eller) and try to establish his value.

With the same flawed technic, I can compare Danault to Koivu and argue he's worth north of $6.75M.

Doesn't work that way.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 11:01 a.m.

#15

SevenLeg

Hop on the Slaftrain

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 16,188

Likes: 20,503

Quoting: Lenny7

I'd say right in the middle, to be honest. IMO, there's no way he makes less than Pageau.

To be fair, it's hard to gauge (is that even a word lol), because Pageau was an overpayment trade-and-sign and it happened before the pandemic. While Danault is considerably better, their contract could look the same because of the pandemic and the overpayment that was Pageau

Nov. 27, 2020 at 11:07 a.m.

#16

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

Likes: 11,051

Quoting: SevenLeg

Sure. I'd imagine that term is probably more important than AAV at this point. More guaranteed money based on the length of the contract, as opposed to a short, higher value contract.

And "Gauge" is absolutely a word, it just seems weird to see when you type it

For some reason, I can't remember what word I was writing recently, but it was similar...I kept looking at it being like "That ain't it..."

SevenLeg liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 11:14 a.m.

#17

SevenLeg

Hop on the Slaftrain

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 16,188

Likes: 20,503

Quoting: Lenny7

For some reason, I can't remember what word I was writing recently, but it was similar...I kept looking at it being like "That ain't it..."

What I often say, here and on Twitter, is give him the Charlie Coyle contract at most, and if he wants more let him walk.

Lenny7 liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 11:23 a.m.

#18

deys3232

Hockee

Joined: Mar. 2020

Posts: 2,775

Likes: 868

Danault is a top 25 centre in the NHL
Eller is a decent middle 6 centre

Just because Danault doesnt score goals, doesnt make him bad. Hes one of the best defensive centres in the NHL, hes an elite play driver. Hes a mediocre scorer (just like the rest of the Habs)

Gallagher, Danault, Tatar and Tofolli are all elite play drivers but meh finishers

Kotkaniemi15 liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 11:39 a.m.

#19

HabsForEver

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 6,103

Likes: 2,240

Your point means nothing. Look at Danaults points 5v5 and compare it against the rest of the league. Also factor in that Danault plays the toughest matchups in the entire league. They aren't and never will be comparable.

deys3232 liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 12:42 p.m.

#20

Kotkaniemi15

Former Hockey Fan

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 13,144

Likes: 10,516

Eller is what most people thought Danault would be when he signed his contract. He’s clearly proved much better than him, and this is a ridiculous offer.

jpsnow13 liked this.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 1:56 p.m.

#21

Wreckless

Thread Starter

Wreckless

Joined: Sep. 2020

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Quoting: deys3232

You can find two centers on most teams who are better than Phil Danault, so there's no way that he's a top 25 center in the NHL. Top 50, yes.
Gallagher a "meh finisher?"

Nov. 27, 2020 at 2:00 p.m.

#22

Wreckless

Thread Starter

Wreckless

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,391

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Quoting: jpsnow13

Goal scoring comes at a premium, so yes, I think it's the most valid thing to look at when comparing cap hits.

ONE stat? As for other comparable factors: position, role on team, both first round picks drafted by other teams, traded to the Habs right at the start of their careers. Low bridge contracts after ELC. Similar easing into the line-up to start their career. Eventually given bigger roles.

Eller was able to do more with less. Danault's production has benefited (disproportionately compared to Eller, anyways) from playing with the team's two best wingers the past two seasons.

Danault's great. But he's 3rd line center type of great. If he's looking to get paid as a top 25 center in the NHL, Bergevin, imo, should let him walk.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 2:19 p.m.

#23

Wreckless

Thread Starter

Wreckless

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,391

Likes: 441

Edited Nov. 27, 2020 at 2:24 p.m.

Quoting: SevenLeg

It's easy for Danault to look considerably better than Pageau when he plays 1st line minutes (with the team's best two wingers, no less) ahead of a rookie and a 19yo sophomore. But this year he's likely playing ballpark 16-17 minutes per game of middle six minutes, and the PK, with no powerplay time.

Also, it's in the playoffs where players really stand out. Pageau has done that in spades. Danault has not.

I'm sure, though, that Danault's agent has the ability to ask around which team is willing to pay Bergevin 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks for Danault, same as Pageau netted for the Sens. Wouldn't be surprised, though, if the response to those questions has been crickets. You can still sign Hoffman right now and give up nothing. Hall decided his best opportunity was the Sabres. This is, apparently, the new NHL.

So if Danault's trade value is lower that Pageau's was. And the economics of the league is far worse now than when Pageau's contract was handed out. Why exactly would anyone think that his cap hit will end up being higher?

Nov. 27, 2020 at 2:27 p.m.

#24

Wreckless

Thread Starter

Wreckless

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,391

Likes: 441

Quoting: Kotkaniemi15

Eller is what most people thought Danault would be when he signed his contract. He’s clearly proved much better than him, and this is a ridiculous offer.

I'd argue that most GMs would prefer a $3.5mm Lars Eller on their team than a $4.5mm Phil Danault (specifically in this economic environment). Especially when you have two young centers that you're trying to set up an appropriate salary structure on your team for.

I agree with you that I'd pay Danault more than Eller. But it's closer to Eller than to Pageau, who I'd agree was a huge overpayment given the current economic realities of the league.

Nov. 27, 2020 at 4:19 p.m.

#25

jpsnow13

You know nothing JS

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 7,060

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Quoting: Wreckless

You really missed the point. Don’t worry, I expected it.

I will just leave this here: Danault is 1C.

Kotkaniemi15 liked this.

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