Joined: Jul. 2021
Posts: 1,052
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I hope this isn’t just revenge for the Aho offer sheet, because that would be bad management. According to Pierre LeBrun they did try to trade for him, and I think Dundon’s too smart to spend $6M just to make a point, so I’m going to review this like it was a legitimate hockey move.
Kotkaniemi is obviously worth nowhere near $6M today, but as a 3rd overall draft pick who just turned 21, he may still have a good upside. We often see high draft picks who struggle early in their career only to thrive after a change of scenery, so it doesn’t seem totally crazy to roll the dice on him for what should be a late 1st and 3rd round pick. It’s only a 1-year contract so if he doesn’t show enough improvement then they can simply let him go without a qualifying offer, and they will have given up a 1st and 3rd for a 1-year rental. If he does grow into his salary, which I think is unlikely but not impossible, then they have a valuable asset for years to come or a tradeable commodity. The only down side I can see for Carolina (other than giving up the opportunity to spend the $6M on somebody better) is if they regress this year and the 1st round pick turns out to be much higher than expected.
Nearly all offer sheets are matched, so if you really want the player then you need to give the team that owns his rights a good reason not to match. The Canadiens offer sheet on Aho made no sense, because they didn’t overpay on the AAV, and although they devalued him by signing him for only 5 years the compensation was something Carolina would never have considered trading him for, so matching was an easy decision. The Hurricanes have done a much better job in that respect. By offering the player more than double what he appears to be worth now, the Canadiens have to think seriously about the cap hit. I think they can afford it with Weber going on LTIR, but they could spend it on somebody else. The inflated salary makes the compensation better too, though if it’s true that Carolina tried to trade for him then presumably they already offered at least the 1st and 3rd round picks, since a trade would have saved them from having to pay that crazy salary. The Canadiens may want to match for some of the same reasons that the Hurricanes want him, but if I remember correctly there’s a rule that says that if they match they can’t trade him for a year – a restriction that Carolina wouldn’t have – and to avoid losing him for nothing after that they would need to make him a $6M+ qualifying offer, so Carolina has put Montreal in a position where keeping him seems like more of a gamble than letting him go. That’s what you have to do if you want to have any chance of success with an offer sheet.